Looking at last like a bit of a break in the east of the state with widespread showers and rain. Nothing too impressive but in these dry times 25mm is something to get excited about!
A slight chance of a weak ecl might be on the cards too, which could give an upgrade if things play out well.

Nice thread start Floodhunta.
Yes, something is certainly on the cards this week. Models have been solid for a rain event. The totals vary, but it's clear there could be a decent small fall this week. Maybe even something a bit better than small.
I'm just hoping that the areas that really need it, get it.

Last night EC looked amazing, today it’s ACCESS. Looks like the north coast will do very well again, hopefully that EC comes off and Sydney and south cop it.

BoM watl looks pretty good for most of the state, the usual ramp up of totals the closer to the coast you get. This is also the first time the model has shown significant falls along the entire NSW coast since winter of '16?

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp (Need to click on the 8 day totals)

This is the first 'event' thread in a while - since June in fact.

The patterns have shifted. The models for the next 10-14 days looks more Autumnal than Spring-like, with highs to the South and troughs dipping into NSW and the Tasman. In fact, I think that the pattern shifted after mid August, with high pressure over us rather than to the North. Now they've shifted further South.
Maybe this Soring won't follow the recent pattern of dry with early heat. We shall see in due course.

Yep, if this event comes off then maybe there’s a change in patterns?

GFS rainfall forecast for the next 5 days:

GFS Stormcast

GFS looks miserable but it was the most undercooked model.

I think GFS looks slightly better than the others if anything! Its indicating at least 50-75mm for both yours and my areas. Good for us! This afternoon's BOM forecast is only indicating up to around 50mm for both the illawarra and Sydney.

The latest Access shows a bullseye (80+ mm) over the Central Coast for Friday, with 50 mm over Northern Sydney. Hope it comes off.

It shows a wet unstable pattern sticking around to the end of its run.

Substantial upgrade for all models overnight, with ACCESSR now progging 20-80mm for southern mid north coast through to the south coast PLUS inland parts for Thursday.

GFS still looking good with widespread areas of 50mm+ around the Illawarra, Sydney and CT areas, with a bullseye of 100-125mm just inland of the Illawarra

GFS Stormcast

Can't wait to see what this bloomin' event has in store for us Tablelanders

Long-gone is the drought sh*t, thankfully!

A very nice rainfall forecast by the BOM over an 8 Day period.

The event does seem to be firming up. The last couple of 'events' have fizzled out as we got closer to them, at least around here, but it's not happening this time.

In the last couple weeks I've held back from watering the gardens and lawns because rain was forecast in a few days, only to end up getting just a light passing shower or two or, like the long weekend, nothing. So this morning I thought I'd go ahead and do some hosing as the lawns were starting to look a bit dry again. Maybe I'll have the car washed to make sure.

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It was a sunny, cool and sea breezy weekend. The pattern continues today. Until the sea warms up a bit, days are going to struggle to get past 20-21 on the coast on days like today. There's warm air about, Mt Boyce is near 21 degrees, equivalent to 28 at sea level.

Got any roofing planned? Some outdoor sports perhaps?


Ho hum sort of day. 24 here locally at Macquarie Park, but cooler in the coast with the sea breeze. I note that OH has no wind observations at the moment, but it's most likely a NE breeze. It looks like the sea temp is still around that 17-19c range for another week at least

Slightly above average temperatures of the NW coast and to the North means that we will be seeing more North-West flows coming into the numerous lows that are predicted to move through driven by the heat troughs.


A North-West flow is active in this event better than the last few systems. I think the early season heat with the Fitrzoy crossing reaching the 3rd highest 40+ reading, has helped our cause.

Damn muggy tonight, first time in ages. Great sign for our rain event!

Latest ACCESSG is INSANE! Would see flooding along the coasts from Jervis Bay to Mid North Coasts if that comes off. Love how the trough/low sits there for a good 3-4 days just pumping rain over us.

ACCESSR is also encouraging, with substantial falls well inland.

In fact all models are pretty gunning for a decent event, now it’s just timing and location. But most bullseye the Illawarra, Metro and Central Coasts.

With soil moisture so low I think riverine flooding is unlikely. Flash flooding more the issue potentially.
Tonight models notably show a firming of the event to the central portions of the coast. NW Inland looks ok too. Position of the low or trough will be critical - let’s hope it abuts the coast and does not drift too far offshore.