Page 1 of 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >
Topic Options
#1471765 - 01/10/2018 18:07 NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Looking at last like a bit of a break in the east of the state with widespread showers and rain. Nothing too impressive but in these dry times 25mm is something to get excited about!
A slight chance of a weak ecl might be on the cards too, which could give an upgrade if things play out well.


Edited by Seabreeze (08/10/2018 14:49)
Edit Reason: extended date

Top
#1471768 - 01/10/2018 18:40 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6046
Loc: Dural
Nice thread start Floodhunta.
Yes, something is certainly on the cards this week. Models have been solid for a rain event. The totals vary, but it's clear there could be a decent small fall this week. Maybe even something a bit better than small.
I'm just hoping that the areas that really need it, get it.

Top
#1471769 - 01/10/2018 19:06 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Last night EC looked amazing, today itís ACCESS. Looks like the north coast will do very well again, hopefully that EC comes off and Sydney and south cop it.

Top
#1471770 - 01/10/2018 19:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
BoM watl looks pretty good for most of the state, the usual ramp up of totals the closer to the coast you get. This is also the first time the model has shown significant falls along the entire NSW coast since winter of '16?

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp (Need to click on the 8 day totals)

Top
#1471774 - 01/10/2018 19:43 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This is the first 'event' thread in a while - since June in fact.

The patterns have shifted. The models for the next 10-14 days looks more Autumnal than Spring-like, with highs to the South and troughs dipping into NSW and the Tasman. In fact, I think that the pattern shifted after mid August, with high pressure over us rather than to the North. Now they've shifted further South.
Maybe this Soring won't follow the recent pattern of dry with early heat. We shall see in due course.

Top
#1471778 - 01/10/2018 20:13 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yep, if this event comes off then maybe thereís a change in patterns?

Top
#1471780 - 01/10/2018 20:18 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
GFS rainfall forecast for the next 5 days:

GFS Stormcast


Edited by Snowmaker (01/10/2018 20:19)

Top
#1471782 - 01/10/2018 20:22 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
GFS looks miserable but it was the most undercooked model.

Top
#1471785 - 01/10/2018 21:11 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
Originally Posted By: Kino
GFS looks miserable but it was the most undercooked model.


I think GFS looks slightly better than the others if anything! Its indicating at least 50-75mm for both yours and my areas. Good for us! This afternoon's BOM forecast is only indicating up to around 50mm for both the illawarra and Sydney.


Edited by Snowmaker (01/10/2018 21:13)

Top
#1471787 - 01/10/2018 21:25 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The latest Access shows a bullseye (80+ mm) over the Central Coast for Friday, with 50 mm over Northern Sydney. Hope it comes off.

It shows a wet unstable pattern sticking around to the end of its run.



Edited by Steve777 (01/10/2018 21:28)

Top
#1471811 - 02/10/2018 08:10 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Substantial upgrade for all models overnight, with ACCESSR now progging 20-80mm for southern mid north coast through to the south coast PLUS inland parts for Thursday.

Top
#1471813 - 02/10/2018 09:00 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
GFS still looking good with widespread areas of 50mm+ around the Illawarra, Sydney and CT areas, with a bullseye of 100-125mm just inland of the Illawarra

GFS Stormcast

Top
#1471818 - 02/10/2018 09:49 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 132
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Can't wait to see what this bloomin' event has in store for us Tablelanders wink

Long-gone is the drought sh*t, thankfully!


Edited by Seabreeze (02/10/2018 18:37)
Edit Reason: derogatory word
_________________________
ďBelow 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.Ē

Top
#1471822 - 02/10/2018 10:32 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
A very nice rainfall forecast by the BOM over an 8 Day period.

Top
#1471827 - 02/10/2018 11:36 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The event does seem to be firming up. The last couple of 'events' have fizzled out as we got closer to them, at least around here, but it's not happening this time.

In the last couple weeks I've held back from watering the gardens and lawns because rain was forecast in a few days, only to end up getting just a light passing shower or two or, like the long weekend, nothing. So this morning I thought I'd go ahead and do some hosing as the lawns were starting to look a bit dry again. Maybe I'll have the car washed to make sure.

----

It was a sunny, cool and sea breezy weekend. The pattern continues today. Until the sea warms up a bit, days are going to struggle to get past 20-21 on the coast on days like today. There's warm air about, Mt Boyce is near 21 degrees, equivalent to 28 at sea level.

Top
#1471829 - 02/10/2018 12:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Mcbobbings Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 62
Originally Posted By: Steve777

In the last couple weeks I've held back from watering the gardens and lawns because rain was forecast in a few days, only to end up getting just a light passing shower or two or, like the long weekend, nothing. So this morning I thought I'd go ahead and do some hosing as the lawns were starting to look a bit dry again. Maybe I'll have the car washed to make sure.


Got any roofing planned? Some outdoor sports perhaps? laugh


Ho hum sort of day. 24 here locally at Macquarie Park, but cooler in the coast with the sea breeze. I note that OH has no wind observations at the moment, but it's most likely a NE breeze. It looks like the sea temp is still around that 17-19c range for another week at least

Top
#1471833 - 02/10/2018 13:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Slightly above average temperatures of the NW coast and to the North means that we will be seeing more North-West flows coming into the numerous lows that are predicted to move through driven by the heat troughs.


A North-West flow is active in this event better than the last few systems. I think the early season heat with the Fitrzoy crossing reaching the 3rd highest 40+ reading, has helped our cause.

Top
#1471891 - 02/10/2018 21:50 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Damn muggy tonight, first time in ages. Great sign for our rain event!

Top
#1471894 - 02/10/2018 22:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Latest ACCESSG is INSANE! Would see flooding along the coasts from Jervis Bay to Mid North Coasts if that comes off. Love how the trough/low sits there for a good 3-4 days just pumping rain over us.

ACCESSR is also encouraging, with substantial falls well inland.

In fact all models are pretty gunning for a decent event, now itís just timing and location. But most bullseye the Illawarra, Metro and Central Coasts.

Top
#1471899 - 03/10/2018 01:36 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
With soil moisture so low I think riverine flooding is unlikely. Flash flooding more the issue potentially.
Tonight models notably show a firming of the event to the central portions of the coast. NW Inland looks ok too. Position of the low or trough will be critical - letís hope it abuts the coast and does not drift too far offshore.


Edited by Floodhunta (03/10/2018 01:40)

Top
#1471900 - 03/10/2018 02:10 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
OCF officially predicting 136mm for Obs hill, similar totals for most stations in eastern SYD and the Illawarra. As has been mentioned already, the positioning of the trough/low is critical in this scenario but it's a significant event nonetheless. Lightning is being detected in the NW of the state underneath a thick cluster of cloud.

Top
#1471901 - 03/10/2018 05:18 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Flodge Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 102
Loc: Camden, NSW
The Appin radar has gone offline. Could that be a sign??

Iíll take any rain that comes. I just hope itís steady. We picked up 25mm in a localized storm last week and it caused a fair bit of erosion. The old lawn is pretty delicate in places at the moment (but it is greening beautifully)

Top
#1471905 - 03/10/2018 06:58 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1209
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Looks like the change won't get here until very late today, or overnight.
Rainfall from this event is looking more promising now with the upgrade.
Hopefully our friends in the Cessnock area in particular get some, despite being only just over 20Ks away as the crow flies, they have received considerably less from recent events.

Top
#1471914 - 03/10/2018 07:54 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Massive downgrade on all models overnight, pushing it more north again. But still hoping.

Top
#1471919 - 03/10/2018 09:34 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
BoM contact has noted a ramp up in the models, more for the mid North coast and the Hunter. Some concern Re rain and wind potential.

Top
#1471927 - 03/10/2018 11:39 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4539
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
I can see it now. The updated 4pm Sydney forecast for tomorrow.

Chance of an isolated drizzle patch
0.2 to 1mm


If you're lucky.
_________________________
Dec Rain. 8.3mm
YTD-1070.9 mm
2017 rainfall-1172.1mm





Top
#1471931 - 03/10/2018 14:47 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Floodhunta
BoM contact has noted a ramp up in the models, more for the mid North coast and the Hunter. Some concern Re rain and wind potential.


Thatís what I said 🤔🤔🤔 anyways Iím still hoping

Top
#1471933 - 03/10/2018 15:41 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 986
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Latest GFS really ramping up the totals.

125 mm bullseye for the Illawarra with 75+ mm for the entire Illawarra and parts of the metro bar the NE portion.

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2018100300:0:192:syd:nul#sc




Edited by Perfect Storm (03/10/2018 15:44)
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

Top
#1471935 - 03/10/2018 15:44 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yasssssssss perfect

Raining here lightly

Top
#1471937 - 03/10/2018 16:11 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6046
Loc: Dural
That's a large band of lightning active storms marching through the west of the state at the moment.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/nsw (will update)


Edited by Homer (03/10/2018 16:13)

Top
#1471938 - 03/10/2018 16:16 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Perfect Storm]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm
Latest GFS really ramping up the totals.

125 mm bullseye for the Illawarra with 75+ mm for the entire Illawarra and parts of the metro bar the NE portion.

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2018100300:0:192:syd:nul#sc




This looks great! But it doesn't seem to be consistent with the GFS stormcast 3 hourly interval rain forecast, or with this GFS forecast for Nowra?
GFS Nowra

A little confused! Looks good nonetheless

Top
#1471939 - 03/10/2018 16:17 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Perfect Storm]
lightning chaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/06/2007
Posts: 522
Loc: nowra NSW
Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm
Latest GFS really ramping up the totals.

125 mm bullseye for the Illawarra with 75+ mm for the entire Illawarra and parts of the metro bar the NE portion.




Not quite. Most of that rain is expected on the last day of the model run ( Oct 11 ) from a second long SE fetch / ECL. Only about 20-30mm forecast for this next day or two.
_________________________


http://www.youtube.com/user/lightningchaser111 - storm and mountain biking videos

Top
#1471941 - 03/10/2018 16:52 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: lightning chaser]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 986
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: lightning chaser


Not quite. Most of that rain is expected on the last day of the model run ( Oct 11 ) from a second long SE fetch / ECL. Only about 20-30mm forecast for this next day or two.


Gah, how embarrassing. I was at work and didn't get time to look into it. Should've changed the hours tab to see whether it was within the next few days.

Thanks for pointing that out. smile

Now if only there were a way to remove that GFS run picture, lol.
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

Top
#1471942 - 03/10/2018 16:54 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looks like the trough is really firing over the Western Side of the state. Hopefully it may reach a mesoscale state and drag its self to us over night but that's probably a pipe dream.
Reached a very warm high of 28.4 degrees considering cloud cover for most of the day. Hopefully heat can stay for overnight so we have a heat base for tomorrow and maybe a thunderstorm.


Top
#1471943 - 03/10/2018 17:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7053
Raining pretty heavily here woohoo!!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1471946 - 03/10/2018 17:20 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6046
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Raining pretty heavily here woohoo!!


And this is just the entrť!!


Edited by Homer (03/10/2018 17:20)

Top
#1471949 - 03/10/2018 18:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I think this could get interesting for the Hunter.

Top
#1471950 - 03/10/2018 18:41 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Liking this early rain and the fact that new bands are developing in waves. Main part of trough still well inland - hopefully bodes well.

Top
#1471958 - 03/10/2018 19:26 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
2mm to start with in Bowral. Tomorrow looks good!

Top
#1471959 - 03/10/2018 19:33 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Those storms and showers out West are delivering some useful totals. Broken Hill had over 30 mm in 15 minutes around 7:00 PM. Albury has had 23 mm, although these two heavy falls seem to be isolated. However, a few other places in the West and SW of the State have received falls over 5 mm.

----

Warm and cloudy today, 27 degrees on the car thermometer around 3:00 PM. That's the last of the warmth for a few days. It was raining lightly late this afternoon, but around Sydney there are just a few readings around 1 mm or less.


Edited by Steve777 (03/10/2018 19:34)

Top
#1471962 - 03/10/2018 20:48 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Isnít that Broken Hills first rains for the year? Thought Iíd read somewhere that they hadnít seen rain yet?

Top
#1471964 - 03/10/2018 21:02 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
No the fact was the was that it had only rained 24.6mm so far this year and as of right now this event has produced 33.4mm which is absolutely terrific. Which saved them from the lowest ever rainfall recorded annually with 58.3mm(Broken Hill Airport) as of now compared to 57.4mm (1940) in the now closed Broken Hill (Patton Street)(closed in 2015) site these sites are 2.8km from each other. Although records there span from 1889 in the Patton St.


Edited by ashestoashes (03/10/2018 21:02)

Top
#1471965 - 03/10/2018 21:08 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2227
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Jeez the cloud cover looks great on the satellite visual atm. Hoping everything holds together for the next few days.
I'm actually heading to Broken Hill tomorrow as long as the flight does not get delayed due to weather, will be good to have a chat with some of the locals about the storms earlier today.

Will pass on any info I get.

0.2mm here so far to start off the event.


Edited by Marts (03/10/2018 21:13)

Top
#1471972 - 03/10/2018 23:59 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
Broken Hill AWS shows 15mm of that rain falling in 3 minutes! That has surely got to be close to a rain rate record? Some serious flash flood would have occurred from that

Top
#1471975 - 04/10/2018 08:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 639
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Constant light rain here over the last two hours, just a pity it looks like clearing away around 10am. It will take a lot more rain to live up to the predictions that we have had.

Top
#1471976 - 04/10/2018 09:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2891
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Latest ECMWF(12Z) & ACCESSR(18Z) have us smack bang in the middle of the bullseye, especially the north shore/northern beaches.

12Z ECMWF Next 48hrs


18Z ACCESSR Next 48hrs


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (04/10/2018 09:30)
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1471978 - 04/10/2018 09:25 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Now we wait and see where the Low forms. That'll guide where the best falls are at.

Top
#1471980 - 04/10/2018 09:55 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
One tool I use for LLCC development is lightning - usually where storms are developing in clusters within embedded stuff indicates strong forcing happening.

Cluster of lighting off the Central Coast at the moment worth watching.

Top
#1471981 - 04/10/2018 09:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It will be interesting to see if that comes off CS22. The maps are showing a purple bullseye over my area.

What is the scale? I'm guessing that the green-yellow boundary is 20 mm, with the dark red-purple being 100. Good if it comes off.

-----

Steady light rain since I got up. Chatswood has had 3 mm to 9:00 (probably nearly all since 6:00). There has been maybe another mm since then. It does look like there's a clearing edge rapidly approaching, with nothing to follow for the time being.

Top
#1471982 - 04/10/2018 09:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 639
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
6.5mm here so far, and clearing from the NW. Still waiting for the 'real' rain.

Top
#1471983 - 04/10/2018 09:57 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
Isnít that Broken Hills first rains for the year? Thought Iíd read somewhere that they hadnít seen rain yet?


Reminds me of what I now believe is an Urban Myth, maybe Rural Myth (and probably duplicated in other parts of the world).

When I was young we were told the story of the kindergarden kids playing at lunch one day at the Broken Hill school when it started raining. The kids had never seen rain before and ran terrified to teachers and classroom.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

Top
#1471985 - 04/10/2018 10:06 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1805
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
But the big rains ar'nt going to fall where they realy need it.shame.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1471987 - 04/10/2018 10:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Stormy3]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
But the big rains ar'nt going to fall where they realy need it.shame.


We don't know that yet, the event has barely started.

Anyway, how good does that SatPic look? First time in ages we've had lows on the west & east coasts. Hopefully they stick around as long as the bloody ridges do.

Top
#1471988 - 04/10/2018 10:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There were extensive falls of 20+ mm in the far West of the State to 9:00 and more falls between10 and 20 mm. Menindee scored 50 mm, about 20% of its average annual rainfall.

Top
#1471989 - 04/10/2018 10:39 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
The big rains already fell where needed, W NSW was only forecast to get 5-10mm for the event yet there's already been 35-40mm on the first day.

Top
#1471992 - 04/10/2018 11:39 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1805
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
We need 250 mms here to fill creeks and dams.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1471993 - 04/10/2018 11:48 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Time will tell whether there's a fall that big, not sure if any of the models are indicating it - but if the low does sit offshore for at least 48 hrs and drifts further north it's certainly possible.

Either way this is the best set-up you could ask for (outside a tropical depression), prefrontal storms followed by the wrap around rain as the low forms, and widespread too.

Next wave of rain about to hit in the next hour or so.

Top
#1471996 - 04/10/2018 12:51 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2891
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It will be interesting to see if that comes off CS22. The maps are showing a purple bullseye over my area.

What is the scale? I'm guessing that the green-yellow boundary is 20 mm, with the dark red-purple being 100. Good if it comes off.

-----

Steady light rain since I got up. Chatswood has had 3 mm to 9:00 (probably nearly all since 6:00). There has been maybe another mm

since then. It does look like there's a clearing edge rapidly approaching, with nothing to follow for the time being.




_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1471999 - 04/10/2018 13:31 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Mcbobbings Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 62
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It will be interesting to see if that comes off CS22. The maps are showing a purple bullseye over my area.

What is the scale? I'm guessing that the green-yellow boundary is 20 mm, with the dark red-purple being 100. Good if it comes off.

-----

Steady light rain since I got up. Chatswood has had 3 mm to 9:00 (probably nearly all since 6:00). There has been maybe another mm

since then. It does look like there's a clearing edge rapidly approaching, with nothing to follow for the time being.






I'd love to see that purple come off. Sydney (OH at least, maybe other sites have but I haven't checked) hasn't had a 100+ day since April 2015 when there were two consecutive days of over 100mms. That was certainly the heaviest rain I can remember Sydney having.

Top
#1472000 - 04/10/2018 13:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1805
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Looks like a heavy drop went through here.
https://www.facebook.com/ABCBrokenHill/videos/303540923809652/
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1472001 - 04/10/2018 13:41 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7053
Looks like pretty widespread rain expected next Tuesday to Thursday as well and possibly beyond.

Not a whole heap of rain here, it's pretty light and the clouds are very white and lack any ominous look to them. But showers weren't supposed to pick up til evening anyway here.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1472002 - 04/10/2018 13:50 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you CS22.

---

The rain has resumed in the last half hour or so, a bit heavier than this morning. Looks like more on the way. Still fairly modest falls, maybe a millimetre or two per hour.

Top
#1472003 - 04/10/2018 13:51 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Looks like pretty widespread rain expected next Tuesday to Thursday as well and possibly beyond.

Not a whole heap of rain here, it's pretty light and the clouds are very white and lack any ominous look to them. But showers weren't supposed to pick up til evening anyway here.


And beyond if GFS Ext has it's way - another deep low traversing the SE corner. Lovely stuff.

Decent stuff here this morning - 5mm, added to the 3mm overnight and we're heading towards 10mm for the event so far and the heaviest rain & acton isn't supposed to arrive til later tonight when the Low (if it does) gets going.

Top
#1472004 - 04/10/2018 14:14 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2891
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
00z has really backed off on ACCESSR. frown
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1472006 - 04/10/2018 14:28 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not surprising find that happens once an event starts.

Top
#1472007 - 04/10/2018 14:48 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 639
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
We are under a very nice light to moderate rain band, that appears to be almost stationary atm. Rain to date here for this event is 13mm.

This is what is needed for us and lots of other places, constant light rain, only we need it to hang around for many days to really get some deep penetrating moisture into the soil, fingers crossed.

Top
#1472009 - 04/10/2018 15:55 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1805
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Only 4 mms here so far,hopeing things come on big time tonight.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1472010 - 04/10/2018 15:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5205
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Nice detailed severe weather warning now out for Sydney and Central Coast. Heavy rain moving onshore from 10pm.

Top
#1472011 - 04/10/2018 15:57 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Seems I pegged the location this am

15:26 Oct 04 NSW Severe Weather Warning: Heavy Rain. Gosford, Sydney, Parramatta, Wyong, the Entrance, Woy Woy

Details:

NSW Severe Weather Warning: Heavy Rain

For people in parts of Hunter and Metropolitan Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:26 pm Thursday, 4 October 2018.
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT FOR SYDNEY AND THE CENTRAL COAST

Weather Situation: A low pressure system is deepening near to the New South Wales coast tonight in association with an upper cold pool moving across the region. The wind shift associated with the deepening low is likely to push heavier rainfall onto central parts of the coast.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over eastern parts of the Sydney Metropolitan, and in the Central Coast region, later tonight and early Friday. This heavy rainfall is likely to start from about 10pm tonight
12 hour overnight totals in excess of 50mm are likely, with the possibility of localised totals in excess of 100mm.

Currently, the heaviest rain is located on radar is occuring over the sea to the east of Sydney. The onshore wind shift associated with the deepening low later tonight is expected to push some of this rainfall onto the coast.

Locations which may be affected include Gosford, Sydney, Parramatta, Wyong, The Entrance and Woy Woy.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

Alert Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Council Resident Options & EWN Support: http://www.ewn.com.au/support/

Top
#1472012 - 04/10/2018 16:43 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
First sign of some on-shore rain movement off the Illawarra coast on the radar. Only up to 7mm here, would be hoping for at least 25 by the end of the event!

Top
#1472014 - 04/10/2018 17:52 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Here comes the seíerly rain, fingers crossed,

Top
#1472015 - 04/10/2018 18:04 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Hope someone gets the rouge hundred, that seems very plausible as per the warning. Although this early round of rain have made the soils ready to take up any downpours lowering the risk of flash flooding.
Also it has to be said this is a very good filling event for all of dams with especially the Sydney Catchment taking in a lot of rainfall.


Edited by ashestoashes (04/10/2018 18:08)

Top
#1472017 - 04/10/2018 18:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
You can see the vorticity on radar and satpic now as the seíerley flow starts to get wrapped into the developing low. Hopefully that heavy stuff just off the coast rolls over soon, if it does 50mm is not out of realms of possibility.

Top
#1472020 - 04/10/2018 18:33 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Another thing to note are the SST's being about 2-3C warmer than avg just off the coast where the heaviest falls are forecast so it could certainly aid the totals. Things are about to really start ramping up for Kiama/the Gong, and also the central coast.

There's also a fairly big bulk of rain just behind Singleton moving very slowly, possibly associated with the surface low.

Top
#1472021 - 04/10/2018 18:35 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1209
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Not much so far for the Lower Hunter to now, rain forecast for tomorrow and a very low diurnal temp range of 14-15C.

Top
#1472024 - 04/10/2018 18:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rsav Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 87
Is it possible that this low could develop into an ECL?

Top
#1472025 - 04/10/2018 19:05 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 517
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
That offshore rain train looks absolutely beautiful. Hope it makes it a bit inland to my area.

Top
#1472027 - 04/10/2018 19:15 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Rsav]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rsav
Is it possible that this low could develop into an ECL?


Yes, same thing.

Pouring here now!

Top
#1472028 - 04/10/2018 19:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 986
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Yikes. Eleebana Reservoir on the edges of Lake Macquarie on 110mm for the last hour and 177 mm since 9 am under that rainband over Swansea, south of Newcastle.

If accurate that's some serious rain! shocked


Edited by Perfect Storm (04/10/2018 19:26)
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

Top
#1472031 - 04/10/2018 19:29 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Looks accurate, there's a blob of orange sitting on top that hasn't moved

Top
#1472032 - 04/10/2018 19:32 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 517
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Yep i've sat in a stationary thunderstorm a few years ago. Local rain gauge at Ingleburn read close to 200mm in 3 hours.

Top
#1472033 - 04/10/2018 19:33 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 639
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Looks like the Illawarra and areas around Picton, Camden and Campbelltown are going to be sandwiched by the opposing rain bands in about three to four hours, this could get interesting.

Top
#1472035 - 04/10/2018 19:40 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2891
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
There are several PWS's in that area that support those huge 100+ falls, so it seems legit to me.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (04/10/2018 19:43)
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1472038 - 04/10/2018 19:48 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6046
Loc: Dural
Current radar images look like the rainfall could explode over parts of the metro.
Heavy cells coming in from the south east colliding with the decent rain band from the north.
An unusual situation not often seen.

I've had steady light rain here for about 3 hours now. Nice, soaking rain, not [censored] drizzly stuff. Should prime the soils nicely before the heavier stuff overnight.
Currently quite cold as well. 14.2 deg's.

Top
#1472039 - 04/10/2018 19:51 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Hearing reports of flooding in Lake Macquarie. Warnerís bay in particular.

Top
#1472041 - 04/10/2018 20:06 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Pouring again & wind picking up. Be surprised if Illawarra isnít added to the SWW.

Top
#1472043 - 04/10/2018 20:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
SMASHING DOWN HERE😀😀😀

Top
#1472045 - 04/10/2018 21:00 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Seems the surface part of the low is between Sydney and Newcastle, while the upper level low is still inland near Willow Tree. Itís moving ese and should link up with surface part sometime tonight and then we will see what happens next.

Top
#1472046 - 04/10/2018 21:14 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ZanLaTion Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/06/2002
Posts: 167
Loc: Murrays Beach NSW
I am right under that red and orange near Swansea. It is certainly bucketing down. Just wish I had the rain gauge working.

Top
#1472047 - 04/10/2018 21:25 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7053
Originally Posted By: Kino
SMASHING DOWN HERE😀😀😀


It's so nice to hear on the roof!! Up to 35mm at Bellambi now.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1472050 - 04/10/2018 22:01 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 639
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Running 31mm now for this event, currently we are having moderate to heavy falls coming through, with a 20kmh SW wind.

The radar is indicating more moderate to heavy falls overnight. I'm guessing we will be around 75mm by the morning. Very little runoff atm, the ground is soaking up most of the rainfall. smile

Top
#1472051 - 04/10/2018 22:05 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The Central part of Sydney is in a bit of a donut hole at the moment. We've slo-o-o-o-ly accumulated 8 mm since 9:00 (Sydney OH and Chatswood). It's lightly spitting here now.

Elbeena seems to have been taken offline. Blacksmiths (near Elbeena and Swansea) has accumulated 52 mm.

The rainband over the Illawarra seems to be moving in to Sydney's South then West. Another less intense rainband is heading in from the North. It will be interesting to see how it goes overnight.

Top
#1472053 - 04/10/2018 22:27 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
Quite disappointing here so far. Only 10mm, could be a little bit more coming in the next couple of hours though

Top
#1472054 - 04/10/2018 22:30 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
eauetsoleil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Bexley North
Heavy Rain only a few kms to the south of me and an incoming ban d coming in across Botany Bay should be here soon

Top
#1472057 - 04/10/2018 23:07 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
This band of heavy rain that has just developed and its the real deal with a rain rate of 3mm/min. Along with wind gusts of 35.2km/h which is reasonably strong for a home based PWS.


Edited by ashestoashes (04/10/2018 23:12)
Edit Reason: Rain rate was upgraded

Top
#1472058 - 04/10/2018 23:18 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The rain band approaching from the South is passing over the CBD, bring 6.6 mm to OH in 10 minutes. It seems to be accompanied by a S-SE wind change.

It's on its way here.

Top
#1472059 - 04/10/2018 23:34 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Bucketing down now - the heaviest I've seen in some months. I could hear the rain for a couple of minutes before it arrived.

EDIT: OH now up to 21.4, so that's a rate over 25 mm/ hr.


Edited by Steve777 (04/10/2018 23:36)

Top
#1472060 - 04/10/2018 23:35 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jimi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1000
Loc: Cammeray
Same here Steve. The radar looks to me like it's slinging some more behind this band, but it's headed further north towards the central coast.

Top
#1472062 - 05/10/2018 00:13 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jimi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1000
Loc: Cammeray
The last few radar frames have showed it thinning out quite a bit which is disappointing. Will be lucky to get another 10mm tonight IMO

Top
#1472063 - 05/10/2018 00:21 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Manly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/03/2002
Posts: 132
Loc: Manly, on the Northern Beaches...
We've had drizzle on and off today and one quick burst of showers tonight but no heavy falls at all in Manly.

Top
#1472064 - 05/10/2018 00:25 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2227
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Moderate to heavy rain here and the wind has picked up in the good old ECL style system atm. great to hear and see it again and hopefully the start to a good event.


Good to see that parts of the west of the state got a decent drop yesterday in some places too, Broken Hill had evidence of flash flood with debris everywhere and a trampoline thrown on the side of the road from which I guess was straight line winds from the storm their yesterday arvo and it was even still rain with the odd bit of lightning in Dubbo as well.

Top
#1472067 - 05/10/2018 07:15 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 639
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
So overnight we added 32.5mm to the 31mm we had up until 2200 last night. That's 63.5mm for this event, our best falls for almost 15 months!

According to the radar this morning it looks like the big falls are past, and all we'll get today is light showers, lets see what eventuates.

Top
#1472070 - 05/10/2018 08:19 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
53mm here, which is 80% of our Oct rainfall - very happy given we only had 20-40 forecast. Hopefully now further top ups. So much for warmer drier 😀

Top
#1472072 - 05/10/2018 08:39 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2891
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
46.2mm here since 9am yesterday which is a bit more than Obs Hill yet a bit less than Chatswood. Peaked out at 111.8mm/h rain rate as that rain train passed through last night.
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1472074 - 05/10/2018 09:04 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 132
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Epic weather! bounce
_________________________
ďBelow 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.Ē

Top
#1472076 - 05/10/2018 09:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Pretty sure that the escarpment would have at least got 75mm overnight, possibly more between Wollongong and Sydney.

Top
#1472078 - 05/10/2018 10:00 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Mcbobbings Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 62
Seems that the best station in Sydney was Olympic Park, with 77.2mm to 9am. Heavy rain around midnight but then just steady accumulation since then.

Looking ahead the forecast calls for more rain. Loving it

Top
#1472084 - 05/10/2018 10:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2145
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
So far, 2.2 mm at Manilla.
Better than nothing.
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

Top
#1472085 - 05/10/2018 11:06 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
No one can really say that they were expecting a wetter than average month arriving considering the developing El Nino and the IOD at such a positive stage, when the models and predictions were run.

Although That rapid cooling of the West Indian Ocean I believe fed the Western NSW storms, according to the TPW map. But very grateful for the large volume of rain that arrived given that I'm not right on the coast with me being 55.1mm (94% of average this month). Hopefully the next even firms and the cold pool moves in from a more westerly direction to provide some follow up rainfall. But I feel this should be an extended thread at least another 10-12 days of weather up next.


Edited by ashestoashes (05/10/2018 11:08)

Top
#1472099 - 05/10/2018 13:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2145
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Looking quite promising, with a cyclonic swirl around Walgett, and showers advancing on us from both south-east and north-west.
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

Top
#1472101 - 05/10/2018 14:05 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Hope you get the rain you need Surly B.

-----

Nearby Chatswood has an event total of 61 mm so far, most of which fell between about 11:00PM last night and dawn this morning. There's been persistent, wind-blown light rain since I got up, adding up to a few millimetres.

Haven't see this for a while: Lane Cove Weir after 60-70 mm over the catchment in the preceding 36 hours or so:



Water was trickling over the weir after 10 mm of rain last week, but this is the first time I've seen a full on flow like this in some months.

Here's Riverside Falls this morning:


Top
#1472105 - 05/10/2018 14:26 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 132
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Some lovely photos above me^

This is precisely how Spring should look like.
_________________________
ďBelow 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.Ē

Top
#1472112 - 05/10/2018 15:33 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1805
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Only measured 16 mms here for the event did nothing here to run creeks or fill cattle dams.


Edited by Stormy3 (05/10/2018 15:33)
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1472117 - 05/10/2018 16:08 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Mcbobbings Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 62
If OH doesn't get above its current maximum of 15.6 today marks the coldest October day in 9 years. Falls have not been quite so spectacular today, with a range of 0 at Badgerys Creek all the way up to 12.2mm at Terry Hills for the metro. Looks like some light showers coming with a SE wind, and the heavy stuff about 100km off to sea.

Top
#1472119 - 05/10/2018 16:34 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Unlikely too unless before 9 tomorrow

Top
#1472122 - 05/10/2018 17:00 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 933
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Just hit 60mm here in glenorie for the event. Was 55mm when i checked gauge 20mina ago, but heavy drizzle to heavy showers since have bumped another 5mm up. 65mm at farm as well has tanks looking healthier at above 70%. Also takes YTD here over 400mm (!).

Top
#1472123 - 05/10/2018 17:04 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Hasnít really stopped raining today. Looks like the low has stalled off Forster.

Top
#1472124 - 05/10/2018 17:07 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 933
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Radar doesnt show it but its quite heavy atm, that soaking dense sort of rain. You walk out in it and your wet through in ten seconds. Ps havent had to do 'heavy form' for a while now Ed G.

Top
#1472127 - 05/10/2018 17:20 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
After light but persistent showers all day, the rain rate really picked up from around 4:00PM. Sydney OH had about 10 mm in an hour, it would have been about the same here.

Chatswood has had 17 mm since 9:00 for an event total so far of 76 mm.

It does look like most of the rain is now coastal.

This cool, wet pattern looks set to dominate to the end of the model runs (10-14 days).

Top
#1472128 - 05/10/2018 17:28 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Damn! Gfs next Thursday looks this event x10.

Top
#1472130 - 05/10/2018 17:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not surprising when you check out those anomalies pushing in from the Indian right across Australia over the next 2 weeks.

Top
#1472133 - 05/10/2018 17:49 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Well, for the coast anyway . But lots can change between now and then. Need my ECL fix😎

Top
#1472140 - 05/10/2018 18:22 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That next GFS one looks like a classic ECL.

Top
#1472142 - 05/10/2018 18:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Classic? Would you say the same as April 2015? June 2007? I donít like to use the term ecl lightly. IMO an ecl retrogrades towards coast or moves parallel southward on coast. Multi cored, wobbling. Ah I miss thee.


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (05/10/2018 18:46)

Top
#1472143 - 05/10/2018 18:37 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I think the issue with this most recent one is the upper low never made it to the coast, so a small surface low formed only.

Top
#1472144 - 05/10/2018 18:50 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
AccessG doesnít have a low. Early days yet tho.

Top
#1472147 - 05/10/2018 19:18 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I wouldn't say that event hinted on GFS is very much like this one, because it is a cold pool that pops up around victoria not really a widespread event, just mainly East of the dividing range event. Also it's quite unlikely for a 540 to pop up here in October. The event that is a follow up is more like on EC from the 13 and 14th as a heat trough dips into a 546 peak around South Australia that should move into the state fed by a Northeasterly from a HPS.

Top
#1472159 - 05/10/2018 20:46 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Low looks to be intensifying? And maybe slowly moving SW? Some heavy rain from Seal Rocks to the Barringtons.

Top
#1472160 - 05/10/2018 20:59 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Aussea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2012
Posts: 54
Loc: Taree, Nsw
For me here in North Taree, the last few hours have marked the definitive period of reasonable rain activity out of the whole event. There is some some lightning activity coming in as well. The low seems to have migrated up here and now looks to be on a very slight SW back track as you say - and appears intensified.

Top
#1472168 - 05/10/2018 23:02 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Kino
Pretty sure that the escarpment would have at least got 75mm overnight, possibly more between Wollongong and Sydney.


My Pleasant, very close to me and where the M1 goes over the dividing range, scored 77mm.

Top
#1472189 - 06/10/2018 09:03 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Mcbobbings]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mcbobbings
If OH doesn't get above its current maximum of 15.6 today marks the coldest October day in 9 years. Falls have not been quite so spectacular today, with a range of 0 at Badgerys Creek all the way up to 12.2mm at Terry Hills for the metro. Looks like some light showers coming with a SE wind, and the heavy stuff about 100km off to sea.


Looks like it got to 15.7 - still qualify?

Top
#1472193 - 06/10/2018 09:44 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Mcbobbings Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 62
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mcbobbings
If OH doesn't get above its current maximum of 15.6 today marks the coldest October day in 9 years. Falls have not been quite so spectacular today, with a range of 0 at Badgerys Creek all the way up to 12.2mm at Terry Hills for the metro. Looks like some light showers coming with a SE wind, and the heavy stuff about 100km off to sea.


Looks like it got to 15.7 - still qualify?


I donít think OH got to 15.7, that was the airport. Weatherzone has had OH stuck on 13.9c for the past two or 3 days. Looking at BOM it stayed below 15.6, making it the coldest in 9 years. No 9am reset either.

Top
#1472196 - 06/10/2018 10:09 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney OH temperatures for the last two days:

Oct 4: 16.2 - 16.5
Oct 5: 14.3 - 15.6

That's probably the coldest pair of October maxima in a while. Yesterday's max was the coldest in October since 3/10/2009 (when 15.2). Last October's coldest maximum was 19.6. We are having a different kind of Spring this year.

The rain continues in Sydney's East, but it's not penetrating far inland, barely making it to the outer Western suburbs. OH has a further 29 mm to 9:00, Chatswood 28, Bankstown 4.


Edited by Steve777 (06/10/2018 10:15)

Top
#1472198 - 06/10/2018 10:32 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7053
I think it's a bit too early to guarantee what will happen in next week's event. There's so much going on with the cold pool as A2A said and also pockets of warm air being brought south with the low. Depends on how the 500mb temps line up as well as to how much instability and rainfall there is. Every time I check GFS it keeps changing with each model run which gives an idea of the uncertainty too. Thursday's model runs now so very little rain on the coast but the cold air is back in the forecast with 850mb temps of -3 on the CT's which is cold enough for snow if there is moisture.


Edited by Wave Rider (06/10/2018 10:36)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1472229 - 06/10/2018 16:25 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Stormbird is going off again, so it was right the last 2 times!

Top
#1472233 - 06/10/2018 17:16 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
BoM have really upgraded rain tomorrow for Newcastle. From 70%. 2-10 mm to 95% 6-20mm. Access and EC still have the weak low moving back to the central coast tomorrow.


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (06/10/2018 17:17)

Top
#1472242 - 06/10/2018 19:30 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC has upgraded today giving us in Illawarra up to 80mm over Sunday / early Mon with heavy falls for Metro too!

Top
#1472243 - 06/10/2018 19:55 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7358
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
EC has upgraded today giving us in Illawarra up to 80mm over Sunday / early Mon with heavy falls for Metro too!


Looks like that little surface low swings back towards the coast.

Top
#1472247 - 06/10/2018 23:07 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
See Barrington Tops has had 300mm from this trough/low!

Top
#1472248 - 07/10/2018 00:15 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1805
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I have measured 20 mms
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1472258 - 07/10/2018 09:24 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 639
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
The sun is breaking out here atm. I just emptied 5.5mm out of the gauge, so the total for the event here was/is 69mm, a tasty amount considering how piss poor the rainfall has been around here over the last 15 months.

Now lets see what the next week brings, some decent follow up rain would be nice. Bring on a ECL.

Top
#1472262 - 07/10/2018 10:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 83
Loc: Bowral
Big downgrade for the Wed/Thurs system. Rainfall on all models not really exceeding 10mm for most areas. Still time for an upgrade though!

Top
#1472269 - 07/10/2018 11:43 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Holy heck at GFS EXT tho! If that comes off thatíll surely push NSW towards relieving the drought.

Top
#1472292 - 07/10/2018 16:14 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Constant drizzle with the odd heavier shower today in Bowral. Feels like more than the 2mm in the BoM gauge.
So far 19mm for the event - ideal in being gentle and spread over several days, but we could use a lot more! I know Sydney folk are over the rain, but we need a few weeks of this - thereís zero run off so far into farm dams.
Looking good later in the week st least, with cold air on the cards too, Dont think itíll snow on the CTs but could be a chance.

Top
#1472293 - 07/10/2018 16:26 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
This is perfect recovery rain - enough so the soil soaks it up and low evaporation rates. If we get a decent follow up event now, we are on the way to a part recovery. Still 600mm behind average here but itís some hope. Better than the doom & gloom

Top
#1472297 - 07/10/2018 17:01 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
October in Sydney looks likely to become a now very rare cooler than average month. Looking at the forecast, the average maximum at Sydney OH for the first 14 days of October will be 19.6, about 1.3 colder than September and 0.3 colder than July. The average minimum would be about 13.3. This compares to a long term (since 1859) average of 13.6 to 22.2 and a recent (1981-2010) average of 14.4 to 22.8.

Assuming that the forecast is correct, to make the average maximum, the second half of October would have to be quite warm, averaging around 24.3. No big ask compared to recent years, but it would require a major flip in the pattern, which I think is unlikely. Those highs have shifted South and will probably mostly stay there for a while. This month actually looks a bit like the (in)famous December 2011.

-----

Light rain on and off all day, only amounting to 4 mm at Chatswood. That makes an event total of 94 mm.

Top
#1472299 - 07/10/2018 17:21 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
October in Sydney looks likely to become a now very rare cooler than average month. Looking at the forecast, the average maximum at Sydney OH for the first 14 days of October will be 19.6, about 1.3 colder than September and 0.3 colder than July. The average minimum would be about 13.3. This compares to a long term (since 1859) average of 13.6 to 22.2 and a recent (1981-2010) average of 14.4 to 22.8.

Assuming that the forecast is correct, to make the average maximum, the second half of October would have to be quite warm, averaging around 24.3. No big ask compared to recent years, but it would require a major flip in the pattern, which I think is unlikely. Those highs have shifted South and will probably mostly stay there for a while. This month actually looks a bit like the (in)famous December 2011.

-----

Light rain on and off all day, only amounting to 4 mm at Chatswood. That makes an event total of 94 mm.


Nice work Steve, interesting the significant differences between the overall avg and the 1971 one.

Top
#1472323 - 07/10/2018 20:01 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Interesting line of showers moving in associated with the outer bandings of the low. Looks to be aiming up the Metro & Illawarra coasts. Hopefully it fattens up - could be some gusty winds with it too.

Top
#1472325 - 07/10/2018 20:04 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6046
Loc: Dural
Alternated between dry spells, drizzle and at times heavier showers today. We've just had another one.
3rd day in a row that we haven't reached 17 deg's here. I don't mind that because I see the heat is building in Central Aus and it will eventually arrive.

Top
#1472326 - 07/10/2018 20:23 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
The radar looks amazing. The rotation on the NE quadrant almost looks tornadoish.

Top
#1472327 - 07/10/2018 20:30 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
The radar looks amazing. The rotation on the NE quadrant almost looks tornadoish.


Agree, almost a hook developing!

Top
#1472331 - 07/10/2018 21:15 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1805
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I love the spin of the low off the Central coast,it is like a cyclone
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1472333 - 07/10/2018 21:44 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1805
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Which way is the centre moving,towards the coast or further out?
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1472335 - 07/10/2018 22:08 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8646
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
It'll sit there then move towards the coast. Probably the most defined low i've seen off the coast on both sat pic and radar, a fast 12-24 hour loop would look good for the archives.

Top
#1472341 - 08/10/2018 00:12 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Portrait of a Low:

Here is the low pressure system brining all the cloud and rain. It seems to be decaying in place, about 100 km off Sydney, prevented by a blocking high from zipping off to NZ or South to join the Roaring Forties, and unable or unwilling to head North:



The picture is a screenshot from Weatherzone 'Layers' (enhanced infrared) taken about Midnight.

Top
#1472372 - 08/10/2018 11:45 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Raining here again, moderately too.

Top
#1472374 - 08/10/2018 12:43 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A few 'event' totals around Sydney to 12:00 today:

Sydney OH: 93 mm
Chatswood: 102
Bankstown: 62
Parramatta: 95
Penrith: 35
Richmond: 49
Campbelltown: 32
Avalon: 81

It's cool, cloudy and windy with the occasional sunny break.

Anyway, the rain can stop now.

Top
#1472375 - 08/10/2018 12:53 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2857
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looking at radar, you may not get your wish. Besides we need so much more rain, and anything that does fall now will recharge the streams etc (need more over the BM's for sure)

Top
#1472377 - 08/10/2018 12:59 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
Looking at radar, you may not get your wish. Besides we need so much more rain, and anything that does fall now will recharge the streams etc (need more over the BM's for sure)


A break in cloud here at Shellharbour reveals some nice vertical growth with these showers. Steering winds should bring some more in from Sydney southwards to Nowra.

May even pick up a very isolated rumble.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

Top
#1472391 - 08/10/2018 15:03 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 726
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Goodbye little low. You did great!

Top
#1472398 - 08/10/2018 15:30 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 502
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Amazing some thunderstorms are making it west of the ranges, from this low.

Top
#1472416 - 08/10/2018 16:50 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4504
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I thought I'd take another snapshot of the low from 'Layers' in visible light:



The low is about 90 km due East of Sydney Heads and is barely moving. It's spinning clockwise like a Catherine Wheel.

Storms seem to be forming in the mass of cloud to the West, over the ranges and West of the Divide. A narrow chain of chain of showers formed just off Sydney, but It's not clear whether they'll reach the coast.

It does seem to be slowly dissipating. We'll get a brief spell of warm weather tomorrow before a cool change and several more days of cool, windy, showery weather, but rainfall totals have been wound right back, so it's probably not worthy of 'event' status.


Edited by Steve777 (08/10/2018 16:55)

Top
#1472438 - 08/10/2018 19:56 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6046
Loc: Dural
Nice to see that the skies have cleared tonight, just as forecast.
Just on the DS issue, I don't get the angst.
We lose one hours sleep a year in October, and we get it back in April. It's not jet lag ffs.
I went to bed an hour earlier on Saturday night, and didn't even notice the difference come Sunday morning.
Last week, I worked from 7.00 - 3.30 pm every day. Some days I worked till 4.00 or 4.30 pm.
This week, I'll be working from 7.00 - 3.30 pm, and some days I'll be working till 4.00 or 4.30 pm. Nothing has changed, except there's a little less light in the mornings, and a little more in the evenings. It has been such a disruption to my life. Not!!!
1st world problems.

Top
#1472454 - 08/10/2018 21:40 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2060
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Won't somebody please think of the children!

Top
#1472486 - 09/10/2018 11:31 Re: NSW Showers and Rain 3-8 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2891
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
The EC weeklies have been showing a flip to warmer/drier from about the end of October for a few runs now. If the GPH anomalies @ 500mb are anything to go by then it looks like an increase in frontal activity to the south of Aus. Perhaps our storm season may finally kick off around then? Until then though it looks quite damp.
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
Page 1 of 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >


Who's Online
41 registered (Mad Elf #1.5, Steve O, Inclement Weather, LonnyDave, Cybermouse, TrentG, Jimi, Steven, Mcbobbings, Squeako_88, willitrainagain, MattS, Homer, nthqlndr, Corretto, Warwick Eye2Sky, explorer, Flowin, GringosRain, tsunami, CirrusFibratus, Rhys., Snapper22lb, GrayHorseRanch, mysteriousbrad, T.rex, Mike Hauber, ozone doug, DarrylS, Ticktock, weatheriam, Wezza, bd bucketingdown, LDRcycles, BlairRoberts, perrywinkle, 5 invisible), 248 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Bernd_Northrhine-Westfalia_Germany, lobione, Robbie
Forum Stats
29735 Members
32 Forums
24028 Topics
1506977 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image