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#1472138 - 05/10/2018 18:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
I've been too busy with other things to check the setup in any great detail but did notice forecast soundings suggest the possibility of some training of shower activity & perhaps localised thunder developing near the coast from the overnight/early morning hours (due to an increasingly moist deep northerly flow from that time).

If that does happen, some lucky places directly under that activity may do well.

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#1472139 - 05/10/2018 18:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1044
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Thanks Mad, yes, it is certainly nice to see a decent fall out here for a change. Nothing spectacular, but it was enough for now. Hope we have a nice follow up event within the next week or 10 days. I hope you also see a good fall out your way soon.
I agree Signalman, I am owed a bit more precip out on the west end. It will all balance out however I am sure. We had a total of 23mm out here today. About the same spread of falls you experienced.
Keep those upper level disturbances coming!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1472141 - 05/10/2018 18:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1320
Loc: toowoomba
An exiting 3mm up here.Hopefully we'll get close to whats been forecast over the next 24hrs.

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#1472149 - 05/10/2018 19:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1179
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Frustration - driving 2 1/2 hours in rain and it stops at my turn off 4km from home 😠
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-320.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-160

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1472156 - 05/10/2018 20:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 938
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Must be an error.... Brighton has had 198mm since 9am

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#1472158 - 05/10/2018 20:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Must be an error.... Brighton has had 198mm since 9am


lol

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#1472164 - 05/10/2018 21:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 286
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Lookin rather nice on radar, really starting the fill in.
Love the sound of rain at night
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1472165 - 05/10/2018 22:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: DDstorm]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 462
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Lookin rather nice on radar, really starting the fill in.
Love the sound of rain at night
hoping we get some of it soon....rained a smidge this arvo here but not enough to register in the gauge, and so far nothing tonight yet.

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#1472167 - 05/10/2018 22:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10440
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW



The skies turned a bit dramatic here late this afternoon as this approached and moved over town. No lightning/thunder in it though, just heavy rain. 20.2mm since 9am.

Light rain brought 4.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am. There was distant thunder from storms offshore early this morning.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1472169 - 05/10/2018 23:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Sounds, feels & smells great!

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#1472170 - 05/10/2018 23:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 286
Loc: Tallai, QLD
It's just diminishing as it comes over the range and then fills that line just off the Tweed.
That next bigger blob might deliver the goods.
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1472171 - 05/10/2018 23:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Stuff over the western 'burbs looks great.

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#1472172 - 05/10/2018 23:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
11mm as I lock up, Gatton rain gauge must be faulty, no reading.

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#1472173 - 06/10/2018 00:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2188
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Really cranked up here. Lightning and heavy rain. Radar shows intensification and Access-R suggests decent rain for hours to come.

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#1472177 - 06/10/2018 06:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Today was never going to be a storm day and wouldn't have a clue why bom put that in the forecast. Anyway ignored it all day and can see tomorrow being the same.


Yes generally when its a overcast day, the big storms don't happen. I'm surprised the models by now don't pick up on this. GFS had overcast skies forecast days ago yet they went for storms as well. Having said that Murwillumbah copped a storm yesterday afternoon, so in that region the forecast was accurate. I remember Ken mentioning once the GFS storm cast on BSCH isn't entirely accurate. Does not seem to be much in the way of rain out west this morning. Maybe with broken cloud something might get going today.

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#1472179 - 06/10/2018 07:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Today was never going to be a storm day and wouldn't have a clue why bom put that in the forecast. Anyway ignored it all day and can see tomorrow being the same.


Yes generally when its a overcast day, the big storms don't happen. I'm surprised the models by now don't pick up on this. GFS had overcast skies forecast days ago yet they went for storms as well. Having said that Murwillumbah copped a storm yesterday afternoon, so in that region the forecast was accurate. I remember Ken mentioning once the GFS storm cast on BSCH isn't entirely accurate. Does not seem to be much in the way of rain out west this morning. Maybe with broken cloud something might get going today.

P.S.

No model explicitly forecasts storms as such. The existence of storms has to be inferred from the existence of various ingredients such as instability and moisture. Simply looking at whether CAPE is above a certain value isnít a definitive way to tell whether a model is forecasting storms. The only exception is certain models that specifically model parameters such as lightning or when itís really obvious that a model is forecasting storms (distinct lumps or band of intense convective precip when instability is high). So in setups like yesterday where instability was fairly modest and it was a rainy showery mess, you can never be sure whether much of that precip was from storms or just from showers/rain areas.

As it turned out, I was lucky enough to get two separate rounds of loud thunder - one near Ferny Grove yesterday afternoon and another late last night while I was in Moorooka when that big mass of rain and embedded thunder came through.

P.S. great pics Seabreeze


Edited by Ken Kato (06/10/2018 07:22)

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#1472180 - 06/10/2018 07:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 394
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
6.6mm from steady showers here overnight.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1472182 - 06/10/2018 07:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4744
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..6 OCT 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......17.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........90%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....ESE 7Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.5HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........3.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....15.7
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...15.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....12C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NW 30kph at 1012
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Storms to W and NW in afternoon before a weak storm passed overhead late at night.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct132.8(95)YTD854.4(928.6)

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#1472183 - 06/10/2018 07:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Very welcome 12.5mm out here so far & continuing light rain.

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#1472185 - 06/10/2018 08:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sandstorm Online   crying
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2003
Posts: 309
Loc: Highvale
13mm since 9-00am yesterday. Certainly thunder out our way yesterday arvo.
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The mind is everything. What you think you become.


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