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#1473274 - 12/10/2018 23:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: DNO]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1487
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: DNO
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
What's the upper trough doing at the moment? Is it coming in too quickly or something, the way it's looking, the predicted 30 to 60mm is going to be way off unless something changes.


Looking like we will get to at least 30mm before it finishes here tonight Chris. I was up to 21mm at about 5pm & been raining nicely since then. smile

Yeah we're well over the 30mm mark now. The main rain event is about 1/2 way done; a bit early to be doubting those totals I think.

Not sure how much rain it will take to wash away the pessimism ; I heard one person today complaining that the drought had been called "off" for the rea. I heard another complaining that "we never get the brunt of storms in Kingaroy, always the surrounding areas". How anyone in their right mind would want that near them is mind boggling.

Gonna be a loooong storm season; starting with the bar so high here , all we will hear is complaints that every storm system isn't like this, lol. I may ban myself from commenting ......
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#1473277 - 13/10/2018 00:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 88
Loc: noosaville
Already upto 95mm here today and are currently under a good train of showers coming in from the ESE. Should be some impressive totals in the morning.

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#1473283 - 13/10/2018 01:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
28mm here, rain easing off a bit.
Very happy with that. Good dose of water in our tanks.

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#1473285 - 13/10/2018 02:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Surface trough headed offshore currently. Should see a little low spin up off the coast along the trough during today.

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#1473288 - 13/10/2018 06:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
explorer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 554
Loc: Coolum Beach, Qld
I just checked our rain gauge and we have 136mm in it, 80mm in the last 24 hours. It pretty much rain all day yesterday and it is still lightly drizzling here, although I expect to clear up soon? System has moved on? We are just west of Coolum Beach.

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#1473291 - 13/10/2018 06:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Kazz63]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1819
Loc: Kingaroy
If that supercell would have hit Kingaroy head on, it would have made quite a mess.


Edited by Chris Stumer (13/10/2018 06:59)

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#1473296 - 13/10/2018 07:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 811
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Chehehehe.I love supercells can't get enough of em just so long as they stay away from farmlands.

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#1473297 - 13/10/2018 08:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 286
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Won't say I'm disappointed with our overnight total but great to see 30's and 40 plus up over the divide.
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#1473300 - 13/10/2018 08:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1179
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Another 65mm to this morning, showering again now. Our 3 day total is measured at 113mm, I added 12mm as a very conservative addition to the storm deluge, so Iíve recorded it is 125mm and I think I could easily add another 20mm that just couldnít be recorded but Iím staying at the more conservative total. Just incredible based on where we were at last week.
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Jimbour rain: 2018-320.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-160

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1473303 - 13/10/2018 08:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 200
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Only 17mm here. Was raining all evening and night, thought it should have been more.

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#1473306 - 13/10/2018 09:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
GFS going for low forming far enough out to sea to keep the heavy rain away from the coast. Access and EC still want it closer to the coast. Radar seems to favour GFS at the moment, with a heavy swirl a decent way off the coast from Rainbow Beach. The heavy storms last night out towards Emerald seemed to move through onto the Capricorn/Wide Bay coast through the night, give a possible embryonic circulation over southern Fraser Island a bit of a kick while dragging it out to sea. Perhaps as the remnant of these storms moves further away the true circulation may be revealed closer to coast as Access/EC? My best guess would be that GFS is right and the heavy rain is mostly over.

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#1473307 - 13/10/2018 09:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1044
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Another 9mm here last night after the 25mm we received during the last rain event 24 hours earlier. Event total now 76.5mm. Nice to see things green around here again.
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#1473309 - 13/10/2018 09:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
GFS going for low forming far enough out to sea to keep the heavy rain away from the coast. Access and EC still want it closer to the coast. Radar seems to favour GFS at the moment, with a heavy swirl a decent way off the coast from Rainbow Beach. The heavy storms last night out towards Emerald seemed to move through onto the Capricorn/Wide Bay coast through the night, give a possible embryonic circulation over southern Fraser Island a bit of a kick while dragging it out to sea. Perhaps as the remnant of these storms moves further away the true circulation may be revealed closer to coast as Access/EC? My best guess would be that GFS is right and the heavy rain is mostly over.

Have you had a look at the soundings from GFS? The 12z run has deep moisture returning to the soundings later today. It may be because GFSís precip scheme is very unreliable. Time will tell if itíll be right or not but itís more accurate on average to go with a middle of the ground consensus approach using multiple models rather than just one.

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#1473311 - 13/10/2018 09:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
grayarea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2007
Posts: 533
Loc: Buderim, Sunshine Coast
Well just looking at rain radar and there looks to be a circulation 130km east of Tin Can Bay. Just an eddy or the low forming?

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#1473313 - 13/10/2018 09:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4744
Loc: Wynnum
Tank not half full yet.

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..13 OCT 2018 TIME..0820

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......18.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........89%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SE 18Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1020.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........13.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......21.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....15.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...15.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1020.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 40kph at 1730
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Slight rain areas and slight showers.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct132.8(95)YTD854.4(928.6)

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#1473315 - 13/10/2018 09:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4744
Loc: Wynnum
Gympie radar shows circulation off Tin Can Bay travelling SE - away from the coast - bye bye forecast heavy rain locally ?
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct132.8(95)YTD854.4(928.6)

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#1473317 - 13/10/2018 09:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: retired weather man]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Gympie radar shows circulation off Tin Can Bay travelling SE - away from the coast - bye bye forecast heavy rain locally ?

Some of the models are trying to bring one or more of the small low pressure centres back towards the coast over the next couple of days so Iíd want to wait a couple more days begire calling it.
With multiple circulations, the uncertainty is often high as they wobble around the place.

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#1473323 - 13/10/2018 10:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
32mm 24hr total here, cool/cold wet cloudy Tassie weather morning.
Stapy looking a bit light on.

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#1473325 - 13/10/2018 10:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Pharbelle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/04/2013
Posts: 128
Loc: Burrum Heads , Qld
Holy cow...152mm 24hr total here. That's 204mm since the 9th. Dam, pool and 3 tanks overflowing another 3 tanks 1/2 full. Happy days! Cows are a bit soggy though.

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#1473326 - 13/10/2018 10:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sandstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2003
Posts: 309
Loc: Highvale
20mm to 9.00am
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