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#1473751 - 15/10/2018 16:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I'm not seeing that on the vis satellite loop.

Still multiple vortices with one rapidly approaching the coast that can be seen on the 256km loop.

One suspects that as it approaches the coast it will start to take a more northerly trajectory as it rotates clockwise around the larger circulations.

Dependent on how close it gets, were likely to see heavy rain tonight to the North of Brisbane perhaps.

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...tart=&stop=#nav
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1473753 - 15/10/2018 16:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: gleno71
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?


I think September or October would be the rarest month for ECLs near SEQ, but they have occurred in the past. None that I can specifically remember.

I think the upper level troughing has been quite active in Australia's vicinity for a few months. In winter it was too dry here for the systems to achieve much, but as the season has shifted there is now enough moisture that these systems have something to play with in this region.

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#1473754 - 15/10/2018 16:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Nice brief chunky showers have made it all the way to the Southern Downs. Usually the range eats them up before they make it here. Keeping the ground nice and moist.
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#1473756 - 15/10/2018 17:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Eigerwand Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: gleno71
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?


I think September or October would be the rarest month for ECLs near SEQ, but they have occurred in the past. None that I can specifically remember.



A year ago nearly to the day!! Not sure if it was an ECL but wind directions suggest a fairly similar situation.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201710/html/IDCJDW4118.201710.shtml

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#1473763 - 15/10/2018 17:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

I think September or October would be the rarest month for ECLs near SEQ, but they have occurred in the past. None that I can specifically remember.


This is a useful reference list of historical ECLs 1846 - 2009
http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/1153_EastCoastLows_1846-2009.pdf

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#1473766 - 15/10/2018 18:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth event to date total from 4 Oct - 104.2mm.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1473768 - 15/10/2018 19:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 314
Loc: Golden Beach
Could the upper trough out west interact with this weather system to further enhance rainfall?


Edited by Snapper22lb (15/10/2018 19:30)

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#1473769 - 15/10/2018 19:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Could the upper trough out west interact with this weather system to further enhance rainfall?


Nah, current trough rapidly weakens and slips far, far away to the SE by Wednesday. The most we can hope for from that second trough is maybe the odd storm later in the week.

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#1473770 - 15/10/2018 19:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 314
Loc: Golden Beach
Cool thanks Mega. Just looks like they are about to interact on the bsch link Locke posted a couple of hours back.

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#1473778 - 15/10/2018 21:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: gleno71
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?


Check the most recent page on the day-to-day weather thread. I quoted a poster's thoughts on this from another thread. In this case it appears to be a long-term pattern of active long-wave troughing in the Australian region. This has caused a lot of the persistent storm events in the last month and a bit.

As for this event it's not so much a specific pattern as just a combination of factors, some of which were caused by the long-wave pattern mentioned earlier. We originally had the troughing, then a stalled southerly with an approaching upper trough from central Australia. All that converging low pressure and turning winds in the atmosphere spawned a low complex. There's a strong blocking high in the Tasman pinning the low in place allowing it to remain slow-moving and close to the coast.

Might be off the mark here - Ken and others feel free to correct.



Thanks for the explanation, sounds like your on the money there

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#1473779 - 15/10/2018 22:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
4.5mm here today. Event total 87.5mm.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1473781 - 15/10/2018 22:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1050
Loc: West Toowoomba
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

I think September or October would be the rarest month for ECLs near SEQ, but they have occurred in the past. None that I can specifically remember.


This is a useful reference list of historical ECLs 1846 - 2009
http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/1153_EastCoastLows_1846-2009.pdf


The 2007 ecl off the sunny coast was pretty amazing. Nearly 800mm in 24hrs at coops corner from memory

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#1473787 - 15/10/2018 23:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Yeah, 772 or 776mm in 24hrs at Coops Corner. There were also some other falls around 400-600mm in that general region. That ECL was in August and caused major flooding in parts of the Sunshine Coast.

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#1473789 - 16/10/2018 06:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
4.5mm here today. Event total 87.5mm.
good to read Warwick had that amount, as we know how badly you lot needed it out there.....70.3mm for the event here at Salisbury.

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#1473790 - 16/10/2018 07:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
As at 0610 ( 16/10/2018) we have recorded 111mm for this event. Still have the odd shower approaching with quick heavy falls so the total may increase slightly. All in all a nice steady fall so that the ground caught most of the rain instead in lieu of heavy falls and run-offs.
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#1473792 - 16/10/2018 07:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
The decision not to issue a severe weather warning for the most recent round of rainfall ended up being a good one.

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#1473794 - 16/10/2018 08:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
What about the decision not to issue a severe weather warning for the return of the bright yellow thing. My eyes, they burn! My skin, it sears!

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#1473795 - 16/10/2018 08:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Well this has been an absorbing event, from the extended storm outbreak to the supercells and then to the ECL.

Brisbane saw some of its highest rain this year despite the lack of note-worthy falls. Had a look at the rainfall for the year and we really have not received much:

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weath..._stn_num=040913

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#1473797 - 16/10/2018 08:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yes an amazing turnaround alright.Personally I'm glad to see that ECL bugger off and a return of that bright yellow thing sooner rather than later.That high out in the Tasman is massive and looks like it will be parked there for sometime.Humidity levels are gunna be high methinks.

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#1473798 - 16/10/2018 08:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Lol Mike, yeah it feels a bit weird seeing the sun again after all this time. But I liked its absence.


Edited by Ken Kato (16/10/2018 08:45)

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