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#1472178 - 06/10/2018 07:03 Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2120
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Looking at the models this morning and the forecast presence of low troughs heading N/W from Vic plus a S/W front the stage is set for some of the best rains this year (hopefully).

By Tuesday morning next (9thOct'18) a 1013 low is nestled between two highs and GFS is on board for Sale receiving 37mm(5 day) and 47mm(10 day) with other parts of Vic also getting good rainfall.

https://www.windy.com/-Show-add-more-layers/overlays?gfs,rainAccu,-38.005,148.195,7,i:pressure,m:cBEakgh

It kicks into gear as the S/W front comes thru' entering Western Vic close to midday Tue9/10 and spreads fairly quickly to the East.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

The site references are current only until next model updates.

ACCESS also has another rain mass loitering Friday 12thOct'18 so have extended thread to that event also.

Some comments from better informed posters is needed to get a better understanding of what's going on in the thread period smile

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#1472201 - 06/10/2018 10:52 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Samboz.

Yesterday AccG was the excited model, today its downgraded, however GFS has picked up the theme:



Who know what will eventuate, at least we at last have a prospect of decent rain.

I head to Merimbula for a break next weekend - surely that will entice a wet follow-up system!

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#1472207 - 06/10/2018 11:21 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1178
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Models have been all over the place with this event, everyday one of the big 3 has it as a big even while the others downgrade it.
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#1472236 - 06/10/2018 18:24 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sure has logansi, here's the latest GFS run:


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#1472237 - 06/10/2018 18:33 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1178
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Models seems to be downgrading the initial event a bit but upgrading the follow up next weekend. Does look like some will get some nice falls just depends where and how widespread.


Edited by logansi (06/10/2018 18:34)
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#1472241 - 06/10/2018 19:11 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks rain in Northern Country to middle NSW upper low/trough sit and widespread likely most Victoria Tuesday.

Then rain next weekend strong front shifting W/SW winds.

Hope doesn't downgrade.

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#1472312 - 07/10/2018 18:33 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The water vapour available over NW to SE Aus looks ample to support this, or the next potential weather system?:


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#1472320 - 07/10/2018 19:08 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Tuesday/Tuesday nights mooted rain tallies according to AccR:


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#1472321 - 07/10/2018 19:23 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1178
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Models starting to line up with more of west and ranges event, second even seems even more complex
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#1472358 - 08/10/2018 09:30 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep models are all over the shop lately.

Will be interesting to see the rain tallys by the end of this thread.

Latest AccR for intial low pressure system:


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#1472422 - 08/10/2018 18:19 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I see on the latest model data at WZ (only AccR/GFS typically available late arvo when I look), shows AccR with rain over elevated areas Tues night (2.5mm for Gippsland), GFS has rain into Gippsland with SE'ly tilt and circa 20mm.

Time will tell, any rainfall is much needed here.

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#1472424 - 08/10/2018 18:39 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1178
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Petros
I see on the latest model data at WZ (only AccR/GFS typically available late arvo when I look), shows AccR with rain over elevated areas Tues night (2.5mm for Gippsland), GFS has rain into Gippsland with SE'ly tilt and circa 20mm.

Time will tell, any rainfall is much needed here.


Interesting event to follow and see which model wins, personally my guess would be ACCESS, IMO due to its low resolution GFS doesn't do a great job of differentiating falls b/w the ranges and not.

I'm back in Portland for a bit - going to be an interesting next 24 hours out our way models are throwing up some big numbers.
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#1472431 - 08/10/2018 19:29 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Ryan T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 12
Loc: West Footscray
Been raining for about 30-40 minutes in Footscray, usually a lot of stuff misses us. This time it developed overhead


Edited by Ryan T (08/10/2018 19:29)

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#1472440 - 08/10/2018 20:00 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 775
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Some nice big flashes and rumbles out of nowhere. smile

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#1472447 - 08/10/2018 20:53 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2120
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
On the east side of the bay south of CBD earlier -

https://www.lightningmaps.org/

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#1472492 - 09/10/2018 12:25 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7557
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Light rain has set in here for past 1/2 hour - no wind.

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#1472505 - 09/10/2018 13:29 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Widespread light rain over much of southern vic should hang around for much of the afternoon

28c sunny yesterday

15c light rain cool to cold today

argh Spring
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#1472506 - 09/10/2018 13:33 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Andrew73 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/02/2009
Posts: 16
Loc: Greensborough
Rain has been a fair bit heavier over Greensborough in the last 20mins or so, looking on the radar its a very localised patch though..

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#1472527 - 09/10/2018 16:29 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2707
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Rain band slowly shifting to North and North east and clears far West into SE winds

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#1472536 - 09/10/2018 17:39 Re: Rainy period Tues 9thOct'18 -18thOct'18 [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6390
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
18.0mm so far here. After 22mm for all of September its been great to watch fall.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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