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#1470798 - 15/09/2018 16:33 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 167
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
Ouch. What is the longer term outlook for the Hong Kong region? I am supposed to be flying there in 2 weeks. This one will be gone, but is there any other potential activity on the cards?
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#1471114 - 23/09/2018 16:40 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7359
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Here's the next one - Trami:



Track gets a little tricky later in the week and although it's not shown in JTWC's track map yet, both the current runs of GFS & EC show a recurve to the NE ahead of an approaching trough. It's just a matter of when that recurve happens.

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#1471119 - 23/09/2018 18:14 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2858
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
160 knots, yikes. The last 2 typhoons really knocked around SSTís in that area, this will really push them down, wonder what impacts this will have upon ENSO. Interesting days ahead.

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#1471120 - 23/09/2018 18:25 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Kino, bucket loads of heat has/is being mopped up from the Pacific N of the equator. "Revert to the mean" comes to mind.

The long term impact must come out to play as the ocean reacts to redistribute the heat balance (not that I have any idea how that will/does come out to play). Yasi stole 2C from the Coral Sea a few years back as O recall. Maybe a look back at the reaction of the W Pacific 6 months following that event?

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#1471180 - 24/09/2018 14:28 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1653
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time-lapse of Trami of the last 24 hours. (Updates every 30 minutes)

https://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-SEAsia.aspx
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#1471192 - 24/09/2018 17:32 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7359
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Wow, seriously.

Both EC and GFS have ANOTHER typhoon following this one up.

As for Trami, there seems to be better agreement today for a recurve well east of Taiwan and into Japan...again...though by that stage it looks like having begun its extratropical transition as it interacts and becomes embedded in a mid-lat trough.

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#1471241 - 25/09/2018 10:23 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5600
Trami's eye looks even more mesmerising this morning!

Below is the track spread of Trami from some of the ensembles colour-coded by intensity as well as the Himawari-8 combined visible/IR imagery at sunrise via CIRA/RAMMB:







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#1471261 - 25/09/2018 17:49 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7359
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS has another strong typhoon hitting Japan not even a week after Trami.

EC has it lurking out to sea for the entire run.

What a season the WPAC is having.

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#1471448 - 28/09/2018 02:56 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7359
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I was actually going to mention a few days ago a particular EC run which had Trami basically stalling for a good 24 hours from Wed-Thu which would lead to a weakening of the storm due to cold water upwelling...well, she's done just that. Once Trami gets a move along though she is predicted to rentensify again as she re-enters much warmer waters and as JTWC say, her outflow taps into the mid-latitude westerlies.

JTWC still has 90 knot sustained (gusting to 110 knots) near the Kyoto/Osaka region on Sunday night. That's nasty.

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#1471450 - 28/09/2018 06:45 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1879
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Those are really nice sat photos right over the top of it.
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#1471531 - 28/09/2018 23:38 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7359
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Trami's eye is now massive:


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#1472259 - 07/10/2018 09:43 Re: 2018 NH Hurricane / Typhoon Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2386
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Mangkhut (Omgpong) is certainly an impressive specimen, hardcore cat 5 super typhoon, up there with Meranti, Megi, Nepartak etc, the production line has just rolled another truck tyre off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/26W/html5-rbtop-short.html

Few chasers that I know are there at the tip ready for the intercept and they have nailed it as the eye is going bang on for that region, looks like the start of an ERC is happening now prior to landfall which probably shaves 25-30knots off it but still a beast on impact. Josh is gunna be up against it getting all the way up there from Manilla after leaving it a bit late!

Tutt cell to east now no longer giving the outflow and impedement on the NW flank but core still blowing up some very cold tops, seas 29-30C low shear, will still be a big impact...the next step will be interesing because the fairly swift NW correction earlier has now brought Hong Kong back into the game for a fair impact....the less land it hits at Luzon the worse it gets for Hong Kong.

TS cool


As you know Mangkhut was another one of our Westpac chase subjects but it's interesting you mention Nepartak and Meranti. Having also chased both of those storms in previous years we certainly had the discussion as to which was the stronger storm.

As far as Mangkhut goes, I was with James Reynolds once again for this one and it was perhaps the first time a storm has become far too dangerous to shoot. At the peak of the winds we were all basically holed up in an internal room of our hotel as glass and other debris was filling the corridors of the hotel. It was certainly not an overly pleasant experience for a period there. That being said, a lot of the damage to our hotel can also be attributed to shonky Philippines building standards. There was however an overall feeling that this was a violent typhoon and up there with the strongest either of us had experienced.

Nepartak on the other hand although analysed as a weaker system at landfall was as far as I'm concerned the stronger of the two storms. To see what this storm was able to do to the otherwise bullet proof structures of Taiwan was incredible. Also the way it was able to toss cars around like toys made it appear more like a tornado damage path than TC damage.

Meranti was perhaps the one that got away however. This storm passed to the south of our location on the far southern tip of Taiwan and was still able to register winds in excess of 120 knots near Kenting over 40km from the inner eyewall. Was sub-900mb as it passed over Batanes in the Luzon Straight and who can forget that incredible satellite image with the entire island of Itbayat encircled by the eye.

Anyway, always interesting to look back at these storms subjectively. Mangkhut at this point is leading the way officially as strongest storm of 2018 but there may also be a case for Kong-Rey as it did appear to be hopelessly underestimated operationally by most agencies.

Here's a bit of video leading up to, and immediately after the passage of Typhoon Mangkhut. As mentioned earlier, it became far too dangerous to shoot most of this storm.

Super Typhoon Mangkhut

Also some clips from Meranti a couple of years earlier..

Super Typhoon Meranti

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