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#1472457 - 08/10/2018 22:07 2018-19 summer season cyclones
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
TC outlook for coming summer issued by BoM today
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
Below average odds for all parts of Australia, but not that far below average that one would say no chance.
I actually find these near 50% (say 40% to 60% chance) of getting the average rather meaningless. Sort of like say half right / half wrong.
Anyway only time will tell. And as we have seen in the past what actually occurs with cyclones can be quite different to what climate "indicators" suggest. smile
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#1472461 - 08/10/2018 22:59 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 629
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Also on the note of cyclones in their video they have stated that they can predict the probability of cyclones occurring but they can never guess the intensity of the system that forms.

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#1473564 - 14/10/2018 18:48 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5017
Loc: Wynnum
ITCZ seems to be a fair way south compared to previous years at this time, also indicated by floods in Sumatra. Looking at charts it is roughly between 0 and 5N to our N and NW. 200Hpa charts also concur.
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#1473892 - 16/10/2018 21:17 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3488
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea should be interesting Can't be worse than last season? Maybe late December for the first NT for my guess.


Edited by Steve O (16/10/2018 21:22)

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#1475027 - 01/11/2018 15:20 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3288
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Numbers Declining in Australia.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-cyclones-numbers-declining-in-australia/528704

Ask any surfer over 50 and they will tell you that. I would say it was more like the 1980's went it started to go pear shaped.

There were a few good cyclone swells in the 1970's like Colin.

There was a time when you could rely on at least a couple of cyclone swells making it all the way to the NSW coast each year.

It is IMO not only less, but more that meander eastwards outside the NSW swell window and not setting up a fetch pointed to us.
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#1475110 - 02/11/2018 11:49 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
MT do you recall the 70's? I was reading about the 73-76 La Nina, and wondering how wet the Illawarra was (seeing as one can't access climate data for it).

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#1475203 - 03/11/2018 10:23 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14283
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Townsville will not see a cyclone anywhere near us this season. Go on mother nature prove me wrong. Any cyclone that passes south of us by 80 to 100klms we don't see a puff of wind nor any rain.
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#1475224 - 03/11/2018 18:30 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
You need to relocate back south to your old stomping ground SBT!

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#1475246 - 04/11/2018 08:00 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3488
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Fingers crossed for you SBT. Need more than luck though every season seems like abit of a lottery.

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#1475254 - 04/11/2018 09:02 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3288
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
MT do you recall the 70's? I was reading about the 73-76 La Nina, and wondering how wet the Illawarra was (seeing as one can't access climate data for it).


Only bits an pieces, but the shear bulk of events in that period.

I started work in Nowra in 1975, and it was either 1975 or very early 76 that the Shoalhaven turned on a real flood.

I remember walking along the bridge watching whole trees and one caravan floating down the river. It was actually scary as I had half thoughts that the bridge would not hold up, the current was that swift. Houses were flooded east of Nowra and Shoalhaven Heads was completely isolated for a couple of days.

When the Shoalhaven Heads road did reopen it and all the surrounding paddocks for miles around were coated in 3-6 ins of mud.

I moved to Moruya in 1976 and witnessed Cyclone Colin's seas. Never to this day have I seen surf larger, in fact I would go as far as saying the biggest waves I have seen since are not even 75% the height Colins waves were.

The sight from Moruya Beach was of waves breaking what looked like half way out to the horizon, but probably only 1 km out. Have since learnt that a reef extends out from Congo Point, hence why waves were breaking so far out. This reef is normally too deep for waves to break on. The waves were 40ft.
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#1475256 - 04/11/2018 09:12 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3222
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Holy damn.

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#1475675 - 10/11/2018 14:16 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Kino]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Early season Invest http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH952019

Anyone willing to invest some dollars into its development? grin
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#1481227 - 16/12/2018 15:39 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
This is not a heads up by any means but a raising of the eyebrow
ACC 7 day forecast
Looking at the gradient 1km surface wind profile

2 possible invests maybe brewing around the 20-21st dec 2018
The two tropical lows are picking up some monsoonal NW infeed

The coral low is quite large in diameter 22nd dec and is located
12s 158e
It is well formed symmetrical rotating low
The other low is centred NW of Darwin (127e 10s) and is connected to the monsoon with a NW infeed

Well worth a look at other models for this as well. Today the cloud up north along the monsoon trough area has intensified right across the board indicating a possible start to an active monsoon phase..
Which could make the new year a time for all things tropical

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (16/12/2018 15:41)
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#1481238 - 16/12/2018 16:13 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
batty Offline
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Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 481
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
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#1481245 - 16/12/2018 16:43 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
I have taken a snap of that 360 hr GFS forecast Batty.If l can remember how to post a pic l will do that in the coming days
or maybe for a thread on weather for the new year

I would think that GFS is agreeing with ACCESS re: 2 possible cyclones off the monsoon trough in the coming weeks
I think some confirmation that an active monsoon trough is awakening. That means conditions are favourable for cyclogenesis
thanks for that find..
I now have 2 eyebrows raised
cheers
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#1481322 - 16/12/2018 21:14 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3818
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Glad to have you back crikey, missed your posts.

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#1481408 - 17/12/2018 13:31 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thank you sooo much madelf' for your welcome.
Hope you have a great Christmas period enjoying the aspects of the weather and forum you personally like
----
An update from ACCESS R on cyclogenesis
None at the moment.No tropical lows firmly coupled to the monsoon trough

quite a broad tropical low centred over Darwin on Thursday

hangs around on Friday on coast west of Darwin and Bingo connects with a NW infeed to the monsoon trough on Friday the 21st dec onwards
By then or even Saturday that low could be an INVEST and warning
Tracks west off the NW coast of WA on sunday

POPEYE and the WA team should be online in the coming days.

ACCESS has rubbed out the bigger coral sea low l mentioned above and in its place currently is a small tropical low just east of the tip of Nth OZ on the 23rd DEC

Currently ACCESS preferring the NT low as the most likely applicant for INVEST today

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1481508 - 18/12/2018 16:02 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
Update from ACCESS gradient winds on possible cyclogenesis

Coral sea

A very broad strong easterly flow across the coral sea developing over the 7 day forecast (lat 0s to 30s !!)
Completely wipes out all potential for lows to circulate. ACCESS giving chances of invest developing in the next 7 days ..zilch in the coral sea ,,
Viewed on 18th- 25th DEC ( 7 day interactive forecast)

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
-----

NT region and surrounds

ACCESS going a little later on the formation of a TS connected to the monsoon

ACC R showing the first sign of a closed rotation connected to a NW monsoon infeed on Thursday afternoon the 20th DEC
This low that forms is quite large in diameter and centred across the northern quadrant of the NT
This position is east of the position as shown by the BOM 4 day synoptic which l believe uses EC and not ACCESS
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

This low migrates NE further towards to equatorial on Friday/Saturday struggling to find symmetry .
On sunday in a favourable place 125e 20s.
Likely invest status from Saturday 22nd Dec onwards

----
Note this is a scenario from one model
regards



Edited by crikey (18/12/2018 16:04)
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#1481600 - 19/12/2018 15:36 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS still liking the chance of an INVEST nw of the NT
in the coming week.
A tropical low connected to the monsoon trough tomorrow , Thursday 20th dec forming over NTh NT
Continues its connection to the monsoon trough as the week progresses, with BOTH northern and southern infeed into the low
tracks NW over the coming week

By Christmas day 112e 10s . nice symmetry with reasonable diameter ( out at sea ) NW of WA coast.

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
A ....small.... low connected to the monsoon trough and southern infeed
appears also on Christmas near the GOC on ACCESS t+162hr


Edited by crikey (19/12/2018 15:37)
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#1481767 - 20/12/2018 15:19 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2950
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS 7 day forecast has another tropical low appearing connected to the monsoon trough at 162 e 7s on boxing day . Right up there in the TC nursery

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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