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#1481834 - 20/12/2018 18:10 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3439
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Not sure if this thread works with every state has there own thread. Just seems abit confusing. Interesting none the less.

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#1482170 - 22/12/2018 04:33 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hi stevo. l thought this probably the best place to put obs' re: developing Invests. It doesn't really fit into any particular state.

ACCESS has the low west of Darwin disconnecting from the monsoon trough later this week so those in the west will have to look to the low developing near the GOC/NT, which is still in play on the 26th Dec

The other low at 169e 9s is looking good on the 26th Dec.
NW in feed from the monsoon trough
strong easterly infeed wrapping into the low...
Worthwhile keeping an eye on.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (22/12/2018 04:34)
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#1482172 - 22/12/2018 04:45 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: crikey]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2185
Loc: 中国上૲...
The MJO is also in Phase 5 and normally proceeds clockwise.
Phase 6 is the Coral Sea area (and Phase 5 would probably include the Gulf of Carpentaria)

This usually means the chance of cyclogenesis are increased

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

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#1482173 - 22/12/2018 05:21 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thanks for that info' steven. I had forgotten all about the madden Julian oscillation MJO
The MJO is info about east /west latitude activity.. Is that how l read it.

extract
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Weekly-note

" Madden–Julian Oscillation over Maritime Continent

In recent days, a moderate strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved into the Maritime Continent, north of Australia. At this time of the year, an MJO in this region typically leads to enhanced rainfall across northern Australia and the Maritime Continent. After experiencing relatively dry conditions in recent months, significant rainfall totals in parts of Papua New Guinea were reported during the past week. An MJO pulse can also aid the development of the monsoon over northern Australia, leading to widespread, heavy rainfall. Under the right circumstances, an MJO in the region can also significantly increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation, although no tropical cyclones are currently forecast to affect the Australian region in the coming week.

In the last couple of days tropical cyclone Kenanga developed over the Indian Ocean, just west of the Australian region. This system is expected to intensify and move further away from Australia in the coming days, remaining over the western Indian Ocean.

The MJO is forecast to maintain similar strength and track further east across over the Maritime Continent, increasing the likelihood of monsoon development in the coming fortnight. However, current weather models do not suggest monsoonal flow will develop in the coming week.
"
-----------
What about the North / south longitude movement of the monsoon trough. The monsoon trough is still not really to be seen and has stayed away from the top end currently. Is there a reason for this? or is that just the state of play for our region of the southern hemisphere
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#1482350 - 22/12/2018 18:26 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1576
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Just noticed, the title of the thread is misspelled. 'Cycones'.

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#1482426 - 23/12/2018 10:19 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13328
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Corrected. wink
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#1482605 - 24/12/2018 19:59 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
Monsoon trough is clearly evident on ACCESS windstreams 27th dec 2018 along latitude 10s.

Counted 2 tropical lows . The coral low is severely skewed in a east west orientation
The low near Darwin is symmetrical and supported with infeeds from the NW and east but weak

By sunday 30thdec the Darwin low has drifted west and intensified off the WA NW coast with a strong NW and southern infeed. Looking like an invest at t+150 forecast

Monsoon trough definitely strengthening and taking shape in our neck of the woods' over the coming week

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1482660 - 25/12/2018 18:10 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
New years eve forecast
ACCESS 7 day forecast ( windstreams). On the monsoon trough at latitude 12s.
2 tropical lows and one TC(out of our jurisdiction).
see map below
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#1482663 - 25/12/2018 18:38 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: crikey]
Bundy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/03/2009
Posts: 19
Loc: Bundaberg
GFS has been throwing up various Cyclones in the Coral Sea and Gulf for a couple of weeks now, keep moving the dates out. It was originally showing them close on New Years day, but now move them out to around January 10. Still good signs that something should form somewhere.

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#1482706 - 26/12/2018 08:38 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Inclement Weather Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5322
Loc: Diamond Valley
I've been watching the long-term GFS too Bundy with morbid fascination. The latest one is the most intriguing with two systems doing the Fujiwhara dance. What we do know is that there will be a very active monsoon that will spawn at least one and maybe more TCs. Where they will form and which way they will go is anyone's guess at this stage.
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#1482732 - 26/12/2018 13:35 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Inclement Weather]
Bundy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/03/2009
Posts: 19
Loc: Bundaberg
Have a look at GFS 18z run, at 360 mark, big and scary.

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#1482757 - 26/12/2018 20:03 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESSg has a TAC forming in the GOC on new years day on the monsoon trough with excellent NW infeed and excellent southern infeed . Giving what looks to be ideal conditions for quick development
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#1482758 - 26/12/2018 20:14 Re: 2018-19 summer season cyclones [Re: Flowin]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13328
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Please continue discussion in the relevant QLD/WA/NT cyclone threads.
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