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#1472457 - 08/10/2018 22:07 2018-19 summer season cycones
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
TC outlook for coming summer issued by BoM today
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
Below average odds for all parts of Australia, but not that far below average that one would say no chance.
I actually find these near 50% (say 40% to 60% chance) of getting the average rather meaningless. Sort of like say half right / half wrong.
Anyway only time will tell. And as we have seen in the past what actually occurs with cyclones can be quite different to what climate "indicators" suggest. smile
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Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1472461 - 08/10/2018 22:59 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 446
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Also on the note of cyclones in their video they have stated that they can predict the probability of cyclones occurring but they can never guess the intensity of the system that forms.

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#1473564 - 14/10/2018 18:48 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4742
Loc: Wynnum
ITCZ seems to be a fair way south compared to previous years at this time, also indicated by floods in Sumatra. Looking at charts it is roughly between 0 and 5N to our N and NW. 200Hpa charts also concur.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct132.8(95)YTD854.4(928.6)

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#1473892 - 16/10/2018 21:17 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3234
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea should be interesting Can't be worse than last season? Maybe late December for the first NT for my guess.


Edited by Steve O (16/10/2018 21:22)

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