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#1472275 - 07/10/2018 12:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Suns out here & warming up. Still feels humid, calm, 23.5C. Plenty dark cloud about though.

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#1472300 - 07/10/2018 17:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1546
Loc: Kingaroy
Things starting later than usual today; but things are definitely starting again.
Deep rumbles all around here, VERY dark for this time of day .
We won't get much, but it'll build as it moves on to the bright lights of civilisation no doubt.
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#1472303 - 07/10/2018 17:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Deep rumbles to our south and west. Here's hoping.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1472305 - 07/10/2018 17:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1546
Loc: Kingaroy
*Note to self, never say " we won't get much' when the cells are still growing.
Quite a good solid downpour with some strong wind gusts as well.
In fact it is bucketing down in Kingaroy at the moment.
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#1472309 - 07/10/2018 18:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Kazz, looking good for east Kingaroy! The cell here is still rumbling but has slid south. Not a fast mover so I wouldn't be surprised to see a good inch out of this one. Not much else developing so better luck tomorrow for us.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1472315 - 07/10/2018 18:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1546
Loc: Kingaroy
Yeah I think somewhere from Caboolture to Caloundra will be getting wet this arvo.
The one below you eye2sky looks a treat.Both these cells moving & changing as they go, that'll keep 'em guessing lol
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#1472316 - 07/10/2018 18:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Decent hook echo on that Nanango/Kingaroy storm now. Probably a pretty intense little cell going off its southerly movement, as well as a detailed warning from BOM


Edited by Snowmaker (07/10/2018 19:00)

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#1472330 - 07/10/2018 20:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flippy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/12/2017
Posts: 11
Interesting few days coming up, Wednesday looks like the best day of the lot, timing of the southerly change being a big focus. Looking forward to reading the input from the more experienced gurus in the house. Cheers! 👍

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#1472332 - 07/10/2018 21:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep exactly Colin, cloud cover isnít always the be-all and end-all.
Although it can reduce the extent and severity of thunderstorms, it usually has to be pretty thick and last all through the day to prevent all storms from forming. If the atmosphereís unstable enough (especially when high moisture levels increase the instability), all it takes is a few breaks in the cloud or a partial clearance by early afternoon for storms to fire up.
There was one particularly memorable case I still remember to this day like it was yesterday was one very cool (barely reached 20C) day back in around 2013 when thick gloomy overcast conditions lasted all day with drizzle... yet the dynamical forcing from an approaching shortwave caused a huge squall line to sweep across our region with spectacular lightning, thunder and heavy rain.
On the other hand, if instability and moisture isnít enough, persistent thick cloud cover can win the day and prevent storms.
Not sure if thatíll be the case today (I havenít looked at the setup yet) but there already has been a few storms in northern parts this morning.



Not sure if this is the day you were referring to Ken. It was a humdinger for sure .

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 09:00 15/09/2013 to 04:00 17/09/2013 UTC


I remember that. It was a cold and miserable day. People on here, myself included, had given up on storms for the day.

Still, I've seen many excellent storm days limited by cloud cover. You can still get storm activity, just not anywhere near as severe.


Yep I think that was the one Colin! It's a classic benchmark to this day in terms of the storms vs cloud cover battle.

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#1472334 - 07/10/2018 21:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Agreed Flippy, Wed currently looks to be the pick of the lot but as you mentioned, it's highly dependent on the timing of the change (among other things).
If everything lined up well enough (sunny morning skies would help as well as the temps reaching the low to mid 30's away from the coast), I wouldn't rule out the chance of one or two of the storms becoming severe with strong winds (and bursts of locally intense rainfall in areas where moisture is better).

From Mon to Wed, instability is moderate but shear is strong so this could help with the strength of some of the storms.... and good SW to W steering winds aloft should help steer storms closer towards parts of the coast.
Tue may be a bit suppressed in southern parts with capping in some parts as well as possible patchy high or midlevel cloud streaming across although maybe not enough to stop storms altogether.
We wait to see if any of the usual potential complicating factors such as premature activity, excessive cloud cover from previous activity, the seabreeze not penetrating over land enough, etc will play a part.

Inland areas away from the coast look like seeing temps reaching right up to the low to mid 30's by midweek before plummeting almost 10C by the next day after the gusty cooler change surges through,

Later in the week, the combo of a wind convergence zone (the remnants of the coastal wind change) and a moist onshore flow from the Coral Sea feeding into an upper level trough over inland QLD could cause showers & rain areas to develop around southern-central parts of the state with moderate falls.
At this stage, some forecasts have the better rainfall occurring to the north of SEQ while some have the better amounts extending further south into SE QLD/NE NSW so we'll have to wait and see what happens with that.

Current 10-day accumulated rainfall scenario from EC (some of that rainfall in our region is from lumpy showers & storms during the first half of this week):



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#1472336 - 07/10/2018 22:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 675
Loc: Bardon 4065
Thanks Ken - your analysis is always welcome.
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#1472338 - 07/10/2018 22:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Well, we missed that cell to the south Kazz, but we just caught the edge of this last one a few minutes ago. 5 min of heavy rain and 1 massive CG along with good rumbles. We live up on a hill, so I can see out to our west. I was looking out the window when that CG hit. It was about 5 blocks away. Right after that, a massive orange glow could be seen. I realised it was flames from something burning. Not sure what it was, but it certainly went up quickly.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1472354 - 08/10/2018 08:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Starting to get excited about Wednesday's storm prospects. There are some things I don't like about the set-up but it's still looking very promising. BOM has forecast of possibly severe storms 24 hours out and all models have a major precipitation signal riding the change in the late afternoon/evening.

I'll wait till 00z GFS this afternoon before posting my thoughts.

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#1472355 - 08/10/2018 08:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
grayarea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2007
Posts: 534
Loc: Buderim, Sunshine Coast
Well we have had a very wet start to October here in Buderim with 170mm since start of month. Heavy downpours from slow moving showers being characteristic.
1/10 82mm
6/10 3mm
7/10 42mm
8/10 43mm

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#1472356 - 08/10/2018 08:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I gotta say, this weather is very surprising considering we are bordering el nino. I would have thought of much drier weather, so i think we are extremely lucky so far. The great escape so far (on the coast )
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#1472357 - 08/10/2018 09:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
10.5mm total last night. We had another brief downpour at 2300 with one good rumble. Sky this morning already looking unstable. Increased rain chances for the next 7 days. Yes, although we have not had a blockbuster rain event here yet, things are looking up!
Looks like it was one of those tall palm trees that was struck last night. Looked like a Roman candle with the dead palm leaves burning at the base.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1472361 - 08/10/2018 09:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I gotta say, this weather is very surprising considering we are bordering el nino. I would have thought of much drier weather, so i think we are extremely lucky so far. The great escape so far (on the coast )


If you look at normal rainfall patterns for an el nino, the dry is strongest in winter and starts to moderate from Spring, starting from NSW and SEQ coast. Sep-Nov has a strip of normal rainfall along most of the NSW coast and up into the southern end of Gold Coast.

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#1472370 - 08/10/2018 11:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks ominously black to the SW.

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#1472376 - 08/10/2018 12:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Shear starting to improve

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#1472378 - 08/10/2018 13:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
STW out for the cell that you mentioned before Mad Elf, did you get anything out of it?

Kilcoy is next up for that one atm.
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