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#1472469 - 09/10/2018 08:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Met Eye forecast for yesterday locally was way off. Despite raining for 3 hours it still had zero rain from 4 pm to 7pm and 7pm to 10pm and a zero percent chance of any at all. It then had a 10% chance after that after all had cleared. Noting today once more zero rain forecast till 1 a.m. Wednesday despite BoM and OCF saying otherwise.

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#1472470 - 09/10/2018 08:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: retired weather man]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Met Eye forecast for yesterday locally was way off. Despite raining for 3 hours it still had zero rain from 4 pm to 7pm and 7pm to 10pm and a zero percent chance of any at all. It then had a 10% chance after that after all had cleared. Noting today once more zero rain forecast till 1 a.m. Wednesday despite BoM and OCF saying otherwise.

Are you sure? It's showing up for me - see below:



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#1472472 - 09/10/2018 09:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Looking like a decent drenching here tomorrow evening if all goes to plan.AccessR has this area in a bullseye zone for between 50 to 100 mls but we will wait and see on that one

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#1472475 - 09/10/2018 10:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Just saw some images posted from a friends family of the storm that tore through Gympie yesterday afternoon, picked up a pretty heavy trampoline and threw it over the fence then down the paddock. Their water tank ended up in the dam. I havenít been able to ask for permission to use it yet but what a doozy of a storm.

Possibility of more storms today and tomorrow. Will be keeping an eye on all info as it comes in. Amazing that on a storm day such as yesterday BoM did not send up the second balloon in the afternoon. Another point of interest was their track paths where out of skilter as if they were trying to be over smart. WZ took a wiser approach and had a blanket area where BoM had the storm warning missing south of Caloundra. Below is the most obvious with a VDS heading straight towards the bay but must had a stop sign ahead. I know what some of the arguments will be but we were right under that storm and it was a stuff up by BoM.


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#1472476 - 09/10/2018 10:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Another point of interest was their track paths where out of skilter as if they were trying to be over smart. WZ took a wiser approach and had a blanket area where BoM had the storm warning missing south of Caloundra. Below is the most obvious with a VDS heading straight towards the bay but must had a stop sign ahead. I know what some of the arguments will be but we were right under that storm and it was a stuff up by BoM.

When you say WZ had a blanket area, do you mean on their map? My understanding is that WZ's system always shades the entire forecast district with the warning colour even if the warning only applies to a portion of it unless you're referring to something else.
P.S. awesome photo Gleno

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#1472478 - 09/10/2018 10:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
On my phone and don't have a lot of time to go in-depth but damn, models are really hammering this region from Wednesday through to Saturday. EC and the new GFS (FV3) have up to 200mm or more falling across the WBB and cruddy old GFS came into line with them this morning. Really hoping it comes off.

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#1472481 - 09/10/2018 10:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Yeah that is correct Ken, on WZ map which I think is a better option for the majority.
Looking at BoM's map they had a massive blanket area which only a portion was affected by severe storms.

So in the scenario like this who is in the right and who is wrong? When you specifically have a cut off as BoM did in their track path,then add a severe storm heading in that direction but stopping short, the everyday public is not going to understand that. I understand the dynamics of the storm and will it be severe as it reaches such and such etc. But I just feel yesterday they failed in their duty of care to the everyday populace that has no understanding off storms.

PS. Loved everyones photos and contributions to this thread. Awesome shots.

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#1472483 - 09/10/2018 11:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
With the prospect of a very interesting few days coming up I was reflecting how a crazy time spring can be, and a month can go completely against a trend. Just look at October 1972(yes, believe it or not, I do remember it). Lismore had it's first, and I think, still only October major flood. This summary from the wonderful information from the Bureau.

"1972 October Rains in south-east Queensland during the first week and additional rain from the middle of the month brought most catchments to a state of saturation by 26th. As a result , the heavy rains in the south-east from 27th to 30th produced the season's first floods. Major flooding was caused in the Macintyre River mainly downstream from Goondiwindi.
In the Condamine River there was widespread flooding in most tributaries upstream from Tummaville. As a result , the combined run-off produced major flooding downstream from Tummaville and extensive crop losses."
1972 November Flood levels continually fluctuated in the Condamine , Balonne and Macintyre rivers during the month. The flooding attained major proportions in the lower reaches of the Condamine River and Macintyre River below Goondiwindi.
Minor to moderate flooding was experienced in the Albert , Logan and Nerang rivers and moderate flooding occurred in the Warrill Creek and Bremer River, tributaries of the Brisbane River.

Minor flooding progressed down the Mary River from 11th to 14th , and local flooding occurred in Brisbane City metropolitan areas from heavy rain."
BUT the interesting point is that 1972-73 was a moderate el nino period.
Hope we all get good rain and storms.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (09/10/2018 11:26)

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#1472485 - 09/10/2018 11:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Yeah that is correct Ken, on WZ map which I think is a better option for the majority.
Looking at BoM's map they had a massive blanket area which only a portion was affected by severe storms.

Yesterday aside, the problem with having a blanket warning for an entire district is that there's often times when storms are likely to only affect a small portion of the district, especially if that district is a big one. For example, say only 20% of a district is likely to get a severe storm, the other 80% get un-necessarily warned. If that happens repeatedly, it creates a boy who cried wolf syndrome, people get complacent and start ignoring warnings. I see it all the time on social media. It's always better to be as specific as possible about which areas deserve a warning but also taking the uncertainty of the boundaries of that warning into account.

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#1472487 - 09/10/2018 11:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
mate recorded 15mm in 3 mins up at Ocean View last night. Although he is always legit, I was sketchy until i saw pab's post. 15mm in 3 mins , now you dont want that rain rate lasting too long.

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#1472488 - 09/10/2018 11:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Stapy on a technical shutdown, 5 hrs apparently.
Good old Marburg!

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#1472490 - 09/10/2018 12:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 96
Hoi Ken! How are those scripts coming along poke

I have taken tomorrow off from work, should I be charging my camera battery? haha

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#1472491 - 09/10/2018 12:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Yeah that is correct Ken, on WZ map which I think is a better option for the majority.
Looking at BoM's map they had a massive blanket area which only a portion was affected by severe storms.

Yesterday aside, the problem with having a blanket warning for an entire district is that there's often times when storms are likely to only affect a small portion of the district, especially if that district is a big one. For example, say only 20% of a district is likely to get a severe storm, the other 80% get un-necessarily warned. If that happens repeatedly, it creates a boy who cried wolf syndrome, people get complacent and start ignoring warnings. I see it all the time on social media. It's always better to be as specific as possible about which areas deserve a warning but also taking the uncertainty of the boundaries of that warning into account.


Yeah good point and taken Ken. Thanks.

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#1472497 - 09/10/2018 12:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Anyone have any idea on todays set up
Appears tommorrow may be a clear yard of anything that can fly type of day
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1472498 - 09/10/2018 12:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Same as yesterday, darkening quickly to the SW & PRESTO,

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#1472499 - 09/10/2018 12:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
With the prospect of a very interesting few days coming up I was reflecting how a crazy time spring can be, and a month can go completely against a trend. Just look at October 1972(yes, believe it or not, I do remember it). Lismore had it's first, and I think, still only October major flood. This summary from the wonderful information from the Bureau.

"1972 October Rains in south-east Queensland during the first week and additional rain from the middle of the month brought most catchments to a state of saturation by 26th. As a result , the heavy rains in the south-east from 27th to 30th produced the season's first floods. Major flooding was caused in the Macintyre River mainly downstream from Goondiwindi.
In the Condamine River there was widespread flooding in most tributaries upstream from Tummaville. As a result , the combined run-off produced major flooding downstream from Tummaville and extensive crop losses."
1972 November Flood levels continually fluctuated in the Condamine , Balonne and Macintyre rivers during the month. The flooding attained major proportions in the lower reaches of the Condamine River and Macintyre River below Goondiwindi.
Minor to moderate flooding was experienced in the Albert , Logan and Nerang rivers and moderate flooding occurred in the Warrill Creek and Bremer River, tributaries of the Brisbane River.

Minor flooding progressed down the Mary River from 11th to 14th , and local flooding occurred in Brisbane City metropolitan areas from heavy rain."
BUT the interesting point is that 1972-73 was a moderate el nino period.
Hope we all get good rain and storms.


Another fun one is to consider when SEQ dam levels recovered from the millenium drought. It wasn't in the 07/08/09 La Nina, although we got enough rain to get out of immediate trouble, with Wivenhoe up over 30% by March 09. It wasn't during 10/11 La Nina, although we certainly got enough rain to do so. It was during the 2009/2010 el nino. Significant dam level increases in April and May of 2009 to get us over 60%, and another surge in March 2010 to get us over 95%.
Admittedly on the edges of the el nino, or arguably outside it if you want to spoil a fun story.

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#1472500 - 09/10/2018 13:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks, Mike for taking the time to read & reply.

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#1472501 - 09/10/2018 13:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: gleno71]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I managed to get to the top level of a shopping centre carpark on the Gold Coast. While I was doing a handheld pano,i caught this strike which was a fluke. Very difficult to catch a bolt in daylight.

Carpark special. by Glen Anderson, on Flickr


Always awesome when that happens! They are near impossible to get the timing right if you don't have specialized trigger gear during the day.

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#1472502 - 09/10/2018 13:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
I love how they always take Stappy offline during the days we are expecting something.

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#1472504 - 09/10/2018 13:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Plenty lightening & thunder happening.

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