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#1483641 - 02/01/2019 06:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
So far the WWB has been mostly too far west to have a lot of impact, but according to forecast it is now moving east. Latest GFS puts it in overdrive by the end of the week.



EC and Access are much more moderate.

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#1483661 - 02/01/2019 09:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Re mooted WWB to come, MJO should be strong, but rapidly progressing through that Nino.4 region Mike (over next 6 days acc. to most MJO models).

MJO looks to scoot across zone 6/7 before heading back to the Indian, where it might linger near Africa, given the warm 30C pool thats re-accumulated over there after 3 weeks of relative coolness on the West side of the Indian.

Actual SST off WA has started to warm again when you compare todays SST chart to those over past 3 weeks.

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#1483663 - 02/01/2019 10:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Most of GFS/CFS family, CMET (Canada) and JMAN (Japan) all have MJO parking or looping in the pacific for a possible extended WWB. EC family and BOM have a more rapid (and also weaker) passage through Pac, but some hint of a stall or fade in zones 8 and 1 which is still WWB favourable with the last few WWBs happening more in these zones than in Pac zones.

Generally I pay attention only to the CFS and EC forecasts posted on the stormsurf site which makes it 50/50.

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#1483729 - 02/01/2019 16:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
removed in appropriate content.
please refrain from swearing, and if the only contribution you can make is swearing perhaps just reading comments is best.


Edited by Mick10 (02/01/2019 18:52)

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#1483765 - 02/01/2019 20:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
SOI response up to November is not at all unusual.

I performed a linear correlation on the relationship between SOI and ONI for the 3 month period Sep to Nov. This allows an estimate of what the SOI would be if the atmosphere had responded as could be expected for a given level of SST warming based on past data.

For 2018, Sep-Nov ONI was 0.7. The Sep-Nov SOI was -2.37 Predicted SOI based on past data was -4.8, for a difference of 2.5. There are 48 out of 69 years that have a difference between SOI and SOI predicted by ONI with a larger difference, so the SOI response for Sep to Nov was quite typical.

In 2015 an ONI of 2.4 would predict an SOI of -18.9, and the actual SOI was 4.5 points higher at -14.4. The difference between SOI expected with that amount of warmth and actual SOI was about twice as big as the difference for this year, yet no one has argued that the ocean wasn't coupled in 2015.

Dec SOI is much more unusual, but ONI data to Dec is not yet available. Does anyone know where I can download nino 3.4 monthly data while the US govt shutdown is on?

Also SOI response shows some substantial multi-decadal variation, and the average response for a ten year period can be as much as 2 points higher than average, or as low as 2 points below average. There seems to be some correspondence to PDO with cool phase PDO producing higher SOI values for a given ONI, however the recent period of higher than normal SOI starting around 2000 seems to be continuing after the PDO apparently switched back to warm around 2014.

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#1483767 - 02/01/2019 20:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 85
Loc: Melbourne (Northern Suburbs)
Happy New Year everyone. I think it's time for a new 2019 thread to continue things off?

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#1483772 - 02/01/2019 20:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Good idea and happy new year RG. Started HERE
_________________________


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