NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 103 of 154 < 1 2 ... 101 102 103 104 105 ... 153 154 >
Topic Options
#1472317 - 07/10/2018 18:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Total rubbish Scott12, unless you’re a mind reader everything you have written is an assumption.

Top
#1472318 - 07/10/2018 18:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Current MSLP chart:



If someone showed me this chart and asked what season is it, and was Aus in drought at that time? - I might have guessed spring/summer, but not the drought. The current situation in Aus IMO is "there is an open door for rain" ....if it wants to!

Top
#1472319 - 07/10/2018 19:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
You’re right, it’s gone like that because people can’t ask questions without personal attack. Like yours for example. Or Mikes on Petros. If you aren’t in the religion, you’re auto singled out for sycophantic bullying like this.


You only pretended to ask a question.

Originally Posted By: Kino
If you know then why quote it? It actually means nothing.


Your second statement that it means nothing shows that have made up your mind that the question is fully rhetorical.

And then after being called on your bad behaviour you then up escalate by bringing me into it with

Originally Posted By: Kino
Or Mikes on Petros. If you aren’t in the religion, you’re auto singled out for sycophantic bullying like this.


Since you decided to spread the personal attacks to me, I will comment that while I think NF's comment was an over reaction to the statement you made to start it, it is a fully accurate statement of your general behaviour on this forum as shown by your follow up.

Quote:
Between your constant climate change denial posts and obnoxious comments like this, you clearly have no forum etiquette or respect for the rules.

Top
#1472322 - 07/10/2018 19:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
And on the subject of Petros I think I owe some further comment on the issue of sea level profiles.

The East to West ocean height profile is certainly anomalous, and I have no idea why it is the way to is. I'm pretty sure that the direct measurements of westerly wind anomalies are still valid. The anomalous height profile is either a measurement error, or due to something other than the recent wind profile impacting on the sea surface heights. Part of the answer is that we haven't yet had enough westerly activity to achieve a classic profile of low in the west and high in the east, but I would have expect a bit more progress towards this profile than shown by Sea levels if these winds were the only thing. Or maybe my mental model of how sea levels should respond is flawed. Currently TAO data on subsurface temp anomalies suggests a fairly even heat content profile with warm subsurface anomalies spread fairly evenly E-W across the equator, and my understanding is that heat content is the main driver of these anomalies, combined with currents, but the heat anomalies and current anomalies pretty much act in tandem.

I'd also note that while the east-west sea level profile is anomalous, the north-south profile with warm near the equator and cool either side is classic el nino .

Top
#1472328 - 07/10/2018 20:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1231
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Kino
Total rubbish Scott12, unless you’re a mind reader everything you have written is an assumption.


You really cant see how abrasive you can be and how intimidating that can be to others that are also trying to understand all this climate stuff but just don't want to feel put down because their level of understanding is not what you consider your level to be...?.....Man you really are a tough nut …


Anyway I'm outta here ..I'll check in in a year or so time and hopefully you have moved on...

Top
#1472348 - 08/10/2018 07:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
MJO had been forecast to collapse as it approaches the La Nina favorable Indian Ocean. However recent forecasts have pushed the collapse a bit further and there is now a short period of moderate MJO in the edge of the Indian before it shoots of to the more el nino favourable western hemisphere zones.



This corresponds to a period of enhanced trade winds in the western period, and at the same time enhanced trade winds are forecast well south towards the subtropics, bringing a solid moisture flow onto Eastern Australia. Over the last few months there has been quite a lot of upper trough activity, but with limited moisture to play with the rain has been mostly coastal. Great in my backyard with its rain favoured east coast location of the Sunshine Coast, but I'd imagine very frustrating for those a little west often seeing us getting rain while they miss out.

But with the enhanced moisture flow there is some good rain currently forecast, and not just on the coast, but a moderate distance inland.

Week two forecasts of GFS suggest this La Nina like pattern may be short lived with westerly anomalies returning quite quickly.

There has been some discussion that this event is likely to be a modoki event, and so far it has been modoki like. For instance nino 4 has continued a steady warming trend through most of the year with only a brief pause when nino 3 and 4 went back a fair bit in recent months. One thing I've noticed this year is that the major Kelvin waves have not been allowed a clean run through the Pacific. Each time we've had a significant Kelvin wave we have had further strong westerly anomalies following up in the western Pacific while the previous wave is still a way from the eastern edge. When waves get too close to each other they interfere with each other, and I suspect this may be what is happening this year, and the eastern Pacific warming primarily driven by Kelvin wave activity in a classic el nino is being reduced.

So theory, erratic and/or fast moving MJO as we've seen this year results in modoki, and slower and more regular MJO spaces out the kelvin waves cleanly enough for stronger impact in far east and results in east based.

Top
#1472350 - 08/10/2018 08:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 615
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
I wish I understood 10% of some of the stuff on this thread.

Top
#1472360 - 08/10/2018 09:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The Easterly trades continue to blow at typical neutral nino/nina rate across Nino3 into Nino4 according to Windy, so I reckon the SST in Nino4 will hold constant, or even fall a little over coming days?:



....note the temp increase around Australias top end over recent week or so (see my previous SST post a page back).

Top
#1472366 - 08/10/2018 10:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Dumb question time.

Regarding the Pacific Ocean temperature profile below:



Why does this analysis only cover the equator +/- 2 deg C?

Right now (at the equinox) - seems valid. But by December the "solar equator" will be circa 25 deg South at the Tropic of Capricorn. Why dosent the SST analysis region track North and South of the equator and follow the seasons (or perhaps with a 2 month lag)?

Top
#1472368 - 08/10/2018 11:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: willitrainagain]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: willitrainagain
I wish I understood 10% of some of the stuff on this thread.


There are several of these if you google them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPA-KpldDVc

Top
#1472369 - 08/10/2018 11:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 615
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: willitrainagain
I wish I understood 10% of some of the stuff on this thread.


There are several of these if you google them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPA-KpldDVc

Thank you

Top
#1472373 - 08/10/2018 12:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros


Why does this analysis only cover the equator +/- 2 deg C?

Right now (at the equinox) - seems valid. But by December the "solar equator" will be circa 25 deg South at the Tropic of Capricorn. Why dosent the SST analysis region track North and South of the equator and follow the seasons (or perhaps with a 2 month lag)?


While the solar equator moves north and south, the coriolis equator stays at the equator. The subtropical high pressure belts in the Pacific drive large anticylonic ocean rotations in the NH and SH. Due to coriolis the water tends to move towards the middle of the rotations. This results in upwelling along the equator, and a tongue of cool water. If the upwelling is disrupted the water warms to a temp more similar to the surrounding waters and we get an el nino. If it is intensified we have La Nina.

Another important aspect of the equator and lack of coriolis effect is that atmospheric effects can propagate along the equator quickly. If there is high pressure in the Indian Ocean, and low in the Pacific air can move from one point to the other directly without all the mucking around with spirals that we see in all other parts of the globe.

Top
#1472379 - 08/10/2018 13:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thank Mike, should have been able to guess that. I'm interested in the long term ocean currents and how they vary over time, must do some reading there.

So I would hazard a guess the the Eastward "jet stream" of return currents presently in place just N of the equator (as Windy tells us below), would in 6 months time morph into the same currents just to the South of the equator:



Will start to look at this animation more regularly, and perhaps learn by observation.


Edited by Petros (08/10/2018 13:28)

Top
#1472404 - 08/10/2018 15:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
I think this is indicative of why mature el nino is not so bad for rainfall outside the tropics.



Here tropical activity is focused a long way east out near Fiji. The deep tropical trades are blocked out near Fiji, so until the NW monsoon flow can get going later in summer the tropics are bit starved for moisture. But once tropical activity pushes this far east there is room for a nice long high pressure ridge through subtropics allowing reasonable moisture to reach the subtropical parts of Australia. Not as good as when the tropics and subtropics are both pumping in moisture, but not bad either.

Top
#1472428 - 08/10/2018 19:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Sillybanter Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 58
Loc: Toowoomba
Great insight here, last summer if I am right we had low pressure much closer to the Queensland coast extending down to New Zealand.
This is what really interests me and I think others on here as well. Linking the climate drivers with the real time synoptic patterns over the Australian region.
The weather certainly has a good look about it at the moment and while this may be short lived we can live in hope that early start to the storm season continues.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think this is indicative of why mature el nino is not so bad for rainfall outside the tropics.



Here tropical activity is focused a long way east out near Fiji. The deep tropical trades are blocked out near Fiji, so until the NW monsoon flow can get going later in summer the tropics are bit starved for moisture. But once tropical activity pushes this far east there is room for a nice long high pressure ridge through subtropics allowing reasonable moisture to reach the subtropical parts of Australia. Not as good as when the tropics and subtropics are both pumping in moisture, but not bad either.

Top
#1472442 - 08/10/2018 20:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thing is, last year started off similar, but it never stuck:



Hence the reason why I'm not really reading too much into the current pattern yet.

Top
#1472459 - 08/10/2018 22:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Mature El Niño? Has one been declared?

Top
#1472466 - 09/10/2018 07:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Mature El Niño? Has one been declared?


😄 No.
_________________________


Top
#1472467 - 09/10/2018 08:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Weirdness continues - unseasonal rain for Darwin in Sept (not developing El Niño like at all) and now a potential southern westpac Cyclone (more La Niña’ish).


Was A La Nina declared? I also note no one batted an eyelid when I compared short term conditions to a La Nina a couple days ago. I think its obvious you and Coldfront are smart enough to realise that comparing one day's conditions to an ENSO state is not making the claim that the ENSO state exists, and are just trying to be nasty.

Top
#1472471 - 09/10/2018 09:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Weirdness continues - unseasonal rain for Darwin in Sept (not developing El Niño like at all) and now a potential southern westpac Cyclone (more La Niña’ish).


Was A La Nina declared? I also note no one batted an eyelid when I compared short term conditions to a La Nina a couple days ago. I think its obvious you and Coldfront are smart enough to realise that comparing one day's conditions to an ENSO state is not making the claim that the ENSO state exists, and are just trying to be nasty.


That's comical at best. Being nasty by agreeing with someone that we are not in an ElNino? And now you are trying to declare that this non existent "mature El Nino" is responsible for the pending rain event? Surely you are smart enough to know ElNino in Spring is synonymous with rainfall deficiency. Leave me out of your nonsense .
_________________________


Top
Page 103 of 154 < 1 2 ... 101 102 103 104 105 ... 153 154 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 45 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
sharjay
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529247 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image