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#1459494 - 27/03/2018 23:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
I recently had to reformat my hard drive and lost a number of bookmarks. Any chance someone has the link to the page showing the ENSO related indicators. SST anoms, SST trend, Sea heights, wind anomalies, MJO indicators etc. forgot the page name. Im sure someone knows the one Im referring to. Tia

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#1459495 - 27/03/2018 23:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy

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#1459507 - 28/03/2018 08:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
thanks Chris. Appreciated.

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#1459517 - 28/03/2018 08:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 32.2mm. Running water through my yard as we are at the bottom of a hill.


Edited by retired weather man (28/03/2018 08:49)

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#1459637 - 29/03/2018 08:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Some rapid warming in the east, presumably as the warm Kelvin wave starts to surface. Trade wind forecasts suggest westerly anomalies for the next two weeks in the east so more warming to come.



The recent strong westerlies in the West Pac seem to have had the effect of weakening the warm Kelvin wave, as it strengthens warm subsurface anomalies in the west again. Not sure if that means the warm subsurface might get stuck in the central Pacific likely leading to El Nino modoki conditions, or whether west to east progression of the subsurface warmth will progress as normal in coming weeks.


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#1459835 - 30/03/2018 20:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Is the SAM going negative? Yes. But long term?

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#1459839 - 30/03/2018 20:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Is the SAM going negative? Yes. But long term?

As it is constantly evolving, about the only thing I'd expect it to do longer-term, is continue see-sawing between phases...

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#1460052 - 01/04/2018 10:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
CFS is trending towards El Nino now later in the year but at the same time it also appears that warm pool could be weakening.

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#1460085 - 01/04/2018 14:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
it also appears that warm pool could be weakening.


any links to indicative source?

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#1460373 - 02/04/2018 18:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
it also appears that warm pool could be weakening.


any links to indicative source?


Fascinating read - "Variability of the western Pacific warm pool structure associated with El Nino", Shijian Hu, Dunxin Hu, Gong Guan, Nan Xing, Jianping Li, Junqiao Feng - unfortunately I cant find the link that worked for me.

The wpwp is characterised as evolving a HIGHsst-LOWsst-HIGHsst spatial structure(roughly aligned nw-se) in area bounded@135E by 4.125N-16.125N. The structure described is notable for a high correlation with el nino development(a more homogenous distribution of sst within the wpwp equating with la nina).

The authors have devised a SI(Split Index) for the wpwp. There is some accompanying detailing of possible mechanisms.

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#1460595 - 03/04/2018 09:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
it also appears that warm pool could be weakening.


any links to indicative source?


Fascinating read - "Variability of the western Pacific warm pool structure associated with El Nino", Shijian Hu, Dunxin Hu, Gong Guan, Nan Xing, Jianping Li, Junqiao Feng - unfortunately I cant find the link that worked for me.

The wpwp is characterised as evolving a HIGHsst-LOWsst-HIGHsst spatial structure(roughly aligned nw-se) in area bounded@135E by 4.125N-16.125N. The structure described is notable for a high correlation with el nino development(a more homogenous distribution of sst within the wpwp equating with la nina).

The authors have devised a SI(Split Index) for the wpwp. There is some accompanying detailing of possible mechanisms.

underlined bolding my error - the characteristic “split” and “non-split” sst pattern is drawn from a region of the warm pool - not from a single longitudinal profile. The area’s co-ordinates are roughly 4-16N x 120-180E

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#1460781 - 03/04/2018 20:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Is it my imagination, or do others agree that MJO (past and forecast) seem out of "expectation" for this Austral summer?

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#1460930 - 04/04/2018 18:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
I'm not able to comment on current EP dynamics but I have to say the pmm index still looks fairly bullish for nino modoki teleconnection to the uncritical eye - data for March just released -

Year 2018
Mo 3
SST 5.16
Wind 7.31

source:http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/Data.html

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#1461064 - 06/04/2018 02:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Cutofflow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2009
Posts: 106
Loc: North Central. VIC
Cool water beginning to appear around the NW coast, Warm and wet on the west coast of Africa and a decaying cool episode in the Pacific. All points to a weak to moderate +IOD and another bad growing season ahead for Central and SE Aus. Fingers crossed we can fluke some rains but the charts look ominous.

[/url]

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#1461086 - 06/04/2018 12:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
The Eastern IOD region is measured waters off Sumatra and Java not down the western Pilbara or Gascoyne coasts and the waters in this region is warmer than normal and medium to long term models have us pointing to a negative IOD or at least the negative side of neutral for Winter. Often the best north west cloud bands come from Indonesian waters, that area that you have pointed too north west cloudbands often dive under Australia or at least the Great Australian Bight.

The current ssts anomalies pattern is as good as I have seen it since the negative IOD of 2016. I expect a slow start and a late break but once the Autumn break occurs it will kick on through Winter with decent rainfall and possibly early Spring this is for south eastern Australia of course and mostly on and west of the ranges.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=indian+ocean+dipole&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3x_P1xqTaAhWCVrwKHVYUAGQQ_AUICigB&biw=1534&bih=809#imgrc=OnL1sCqf_pMazM:


https://www.google.com.au/search?q=indian+ocean+dipole&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3x_P1xqTaAhWCVrwKHVYUAGQQ_AUICigB&biw=1534&bih=809#imgrc=ceGTKIpwVyQ-nM:








Edited by _Johnno_ (06/04/2018 12:05)
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#1461089 - 06/04/2018 12:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
BTW has anyone seen the strong cooling off the north and east coast of PNG? Few people during Summer were referring to this as a possible reason of the drier weather across the eastern states aiding in blocks (when the ssts were warmer than normal in this region).


Edited by _Johnno_ (06/04/2018 12:12)
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#1461094 - 06/04/2018 13:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
BTW has anyone seen the strong cooling off the north and east coast of PNG? Few people during Summer were referring to this as a possible reason of the drier weather across the eastern states aiding in blocks (when the ssts were warmer than normal in this region).


That was me. Too little too late and possibly due to a commencement of a swing the other way. You really want to see that on the other side of Summer.
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#1461101 - 06/04/2018 15:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Cutofflow]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Cutofflow
Cool water beginning to appear around the NW coast, Warm and wet on the west coast of Africa and a decaying cool episode in the Pacific. All points to a weak to moderate +IOD and another bad growing season ahead for Central and SE Aus. Fingers crossed we can fluke some rains but the charts look ominous.

[/url]


Why are we basing a seasonal forecast on a 7 day SST anomaly chart? Surely that's risky and irrelevant?

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#1461102 - 06/04/2018 15:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
The cooling of the waters north of PNG is the result of another WWB. This one is very intense, with possibly the longest period of >6m/s anomalies experienced this early in a potential el nino build up, however limited in spatial extent and not extending very far east at all. It is also too close to the last WWB and is interfering with the current warm Kelvin wave about to surface in the east, so it is hard to tell how much of a kelvin wave will be generated.

Regardless this will continue the current push towards el nino, and an area of cool anomalies with warmer anomalies further east will substantially increase the risk of further westerly activity.

Heat content continues to rise:


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#1461201 - 08/04/2018 11:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Those ssts look incredibly juicy now north west of Australia.. The best in 2 years easily. Something will have to give in the next few weeks.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta
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