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#1472595 - 09/10/2018 20:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Great news, amazing technology. Well done!

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#1472598 - 09/10/2018 21:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Latest ACCESS-R now stalling the change along the Fraser Coast instead of blasting it up the coast by Thursday night. ACCESS-G still looks fantastic for northern parts of SEQ too. Seems EC is the main outlier now.

Up to 40mm for the night now.

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#1472601 - 09/10/2018 21:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
Latest ACCESS-R now stalling the change along the Fraser Coast instead of blasting it up the coast by Thursday night. ACCESS-G still looks fantastic for northern parts of SEQ too. Seems EC is the main outlier now.

Up to 40mm for the night now.


*36mm.

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#1472603 - 09/10/2018 21:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1268
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
The lightning is the best part Kazz, makes the grass grow amazingly.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1472607 - 09/10/2018 22:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Lani]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
So tomorrow evening/night most of SEQ will get rain/storm action, but it looks a lot more complicated when it comes to severe potential.

It looks like we should see a hot and clear day, possibly well into the afternoon. The westerlies push almost to the coast keeping us dry, but not capped. A strong seabreeze arrives in the afternoon bringing a big injection of moisture and raising CAPE from almost zero to values approaching 2000 along coastal SEQ. This should create a 'Round 1' of storms forming along the seabreeze front in various parts of SEQ. There's a decent lapse rate, some helicity for turning winds and pretty strong easterly steering. There's a chance some of these storms could be severe, although I'm not convinced that we'll see an outbreak of supercells at this point.

Meanwhile the big show is getting started down south. The southerly should reach Byron by about 4 pm, GC around 7 and Brisbane by around 9. Overall it looks absolutely juicy for NE NSW with big instability, cold mids and freezing uppers and good shear. I expect there will be cells with destructive wind and giant hail down there, possibly a major line or supercell pushing NE out to sea off Byron or into GC.

Unfortunately, the timing of the southerly looks to be too late for us, but it should be enough for a decent 'Round 2'. I think all the major activity will exit NE through GC and smash the ocean with the rest of SEQ seeing a coastal-focused band of rain and storms push up the coast. The question is whether the energy will have been sucked out the atmosphere from the afternoon storms in SEQ north of GC. When was the last time we saw a really severe storm in Brisbane off a southerly change at night?

So in summary most of coastal SEQ should see storms significantly favouring GC and NE NSW for severe potential. The arrival of the southerly should then bring widespread rain to most of coastal SEQ.

I'm a little disappointed because this could have been a huge SEQ event if the southerly had arrived earlier, but not to be. There's enough unpredictability about tomorrow to still keep me guessing though. Would be very interested to hear Ken and other's thoughts.


Edited by Nature's Fury (09/10/2018 22:34)

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#1472608 - 09/10/2018 22:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Access C has the bulk of the activity occurring between 5 and 7 pm in northern NSW, Southern Gold Coast.

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#1472609 - 09/10/2018 22:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Access C has the bulk of the activity occurring between 5 and 7 pm in northern NSW, Southern Gold Coast.


Thanks, I don't have access to that. Not surprised, if I were a storm chaser I'd be parking myself right there in anticipation of a pretty epic storm.

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#1472617 - 09/10/2018 23:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 606
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
hey ho, Stappy crappy - again - its a total failure this radar..

It happens 50 % of a storm potential systems - they cant fix it properly, looking in the wrong direction for a fix, they haven't nailed the cause yet, been happening for years ,,,,
just sayin''
well, it is all kind of ridiculous. r the germans having a lend of us Grrr, ,, haha.

Radar service is currently unavailable due to:
Reason: Technical or equipment problems
Date: 09/10/2018
Start time: 9:15 am EST
Duration: Unknown
Estimated time of restoration of service: Unknown
Please use the backup Brisbane (Marburg) radar.


Edited by PlumbBob (09/10/2018 23:55)
_________________________
Weather or not ?

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#1472618 - 10/10/2018 00:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blinky_Bill Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/01/2008
Posts: 530
Loc: Beenleigh SEQ
Did anyone see this up Nth of tewantin this evening with that cell that sat on the coast heading Nth? The doppler signature looked very interesting, maybe a possible waterspout?? It looked better on the Bom radar than this shows. Both Doppler and 128k here

See : 128km Radar Loop for Gympie, 07:00 09/10/2018 to 10:00 09/10/2018 UTC


See : 128km Radar Loop for Gympie, 07:00 09/10/2018 to 10:00 09/10/2018 UTC
_________________________
Blinky Bill from Wombat Hill

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#1472620 - 10/10/2018 07:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
The stapy radar :
Unfortunately, Brisbane Mt Staplyton radar has developed a technical fault. Radar technicians will be on site to investigate on Wednesday morning. During this time please access nearby Marburg and Gympie radars in addition to high resolution satellite imagery.
SHOULD READ : Our German counterparts have been called to fix the issue but they take at least 4 days to fly out here.We aren't going to say that because we will look silly. Then they hold us ransom whilst they take their time. Unfortunately they are not smart enough to create a remotely managed system like everything else in the world today because they like to take the flight to enjoy our weather. Also the bom procurement process at the time didn't factor in KPI's for the company to manage the system and this is why they are still around.
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1472621 - 10/10/2018 08:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
4mm from yesterdays efforts.
Just curious, we have plenty of dopplers around OZ now, so why is Stapy the problem child & the others appear to behave? Are they all the same or is Stapy a German schweinehund?

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#1472624 - 10/10/2018 08:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
They've had the entire dry season to test it and get it ready for the stormy season. It's a little ridiculous and honestly embarrassing at this point.

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#1472625 - 10/10/2018 08:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..10 OCT 2018 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......19.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........85%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SW 2Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.4HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Sky clear
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....14.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NW 34kph at 1703
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Thunder heard to SW late afternoon, no TS locally.

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#1472633 - 10/10/2018 08:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Below is the thunderstorm script output for the period between 9am today and 6am Thursday morning Stormwalker.

Most things still look good to me for today for numerous storms - the only things I can see that may or may not ruin it are:

1) somewhat dry'ish lower levels initially which may cause most storms to be high-based at first (but may develop lower bases later near the coast)
2) some capping near the coast
3) if activity initiates too early (but if it doesn't, that's great)
4) smaller mesoscale/storm-scale interactions not playing ball with the broadscale setup

Despite those factors, it still looks great for storms in a lot of areas & the steering is strong so there's a distinct possibility that storms could reach parts of the coast after being advected from the more favourable western & southern areas (e.g. Downs, Lockyer Valley, near & south of the QLD/NSW border, etc).
The non-severe storms should come from a WSW direction while any severe cells will deviate from this direction.

Some locations where previous activity hasn't settled down the atmosphere too much might also get further activity continuing through the overnight hours into early tomorrow due to the residual instability.

P.S. that's gold paulcirrus!




Edited by Ken Kato (10/10/2018 08:59)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1472648 - 10/10/2018 10:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Beutifull sunny warm morning, 25C already & not a cloud in sight! Fantastic heating coming up!
Good looking map Ken.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (10/10/2018 10:11)

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#1472649 - 10/10/2018 10:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Nice work Ken, bring on the supercells! might go for a cruise down Murwillumbah later

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#1472652 - 10/10/2018 10:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I am not impressed with Stappy being down, but it was upgraded to try and give it a longer lifespan which technically meant it was due to be replaced but we will put a bandaid on it to struggle through.
But at the same time it may not be a software issue. Could be a technical problem with the mechanics etc.

This was the BoM media release for their excuse on spending millions for an extra 10 years of life
Mt Stapylton Radar offline for mid-life refurbishment
18/04/2018


Brisbane's Mt Stapylton Radar will be offline from today (18 April) for approximately two weeks while we complete a mid-life refurbishment that will extend the radar's operational life by a further 10 years. We anticipate the radar will be back online by Friday 27 April.

This outage has been planned well in advance; following the peak of severe weather and storm season and the Gold Coast Commonwealth Games.

While employing advanced technology, Mount Stapylton is not a new radar. As you would service your car, we also need to service our radar network regularly, replacing parts that wear out over time. This refurbishment will replace components such as the klystron (which converts electrical to microwave energy), the power supply, motor and gear assemblies and control circuitry.

And a straight face report .
https://youtu.be/P8mARaeF5rw

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#1472667 - 10/10/2018 11:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Estimated Stapy return 4.15pm today.
I am sure the Tech's are doing their best to revive that old dog of a radar.

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#1472669 - 10/10/2018 11:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I feel sorry for them to be honest. It is not their fault.

I am just wondering what happens in 9 years if they fully decomish it. How far ahead has the govt thought about locations or costs involved.? Or do they demolish and rebuild at Mount Stapylton and how long will that take?

Plus another intriguing question is how long after a shut down can the maintenance crew safely enter to fix any mechanical or electronic/ electrical equipment so as not to be affected by radiation.

I noticed CP2 at Redbank Plains was decomished last year (2107) which was a worry as there is now a school next to it.
So fortunately for the staff and kids would be safe.


Edited by Colin Maitland (10/10/2018 11:58)

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#1472672 - 10/10/2018 12:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Clouds popping their heads up W of the ranges.

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