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#1472785 - 10/10/2018 20:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Good grief!

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#1472786 - 10/10/2018 20:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1004
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Nice little spring storm for us just passed by. Not much rain it in but very very lightning active. Will anything else kick off later tonight when southerly pushes through

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#1472787 - 10/10/2018 20:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
Yep bl**dy stupid and leads to mass complacency in the future when they don't come to fruition.

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#1472788 - 10/10/2018 20:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
That dangerous cell on the Namoi radar is still maintaining strength and is growing in size as it heads towards Tamworth.

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#1472790 - 10/10/2018 20:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1004
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Is the southerly currently near coolangatta?

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#1472791 - 10/10/2018 20:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
Yep according to Windy
https://www.windy.com/?-34.198,146.733,5

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#1472792 - 10/10/2018 20:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It is.

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#1472793 - 10/10/2018 20:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1004
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Thanks guys.

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#1472794 - 10/10/2018 20:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: petethemoskeet]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Yep according to Windy
https://www.windy.com/?-34.198,146.733,5


Definitely agree that the southerly is there at the moment, but doesn't Windy use modelling rather than live obs?

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#1472795 - 10/10/2018 20:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Yep according to Windy
https://www.windy.com/?-34.198,146.733,5


Definitely agree that the southerly is there at the moment, but doesn't Windy use modelling rather than live obs?

Yep, it uses whatever model you select. But you can make it display real-time obs of certain parameters,

We wonít feel the coolness really kick in until daytime tomorrow. Muggy til then.

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#1472796 - 10/10/2018 20:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
You can see the date and time on the bottom.Last update says 8pm

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#1472797 - 10/10/2018 20:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Holy cow that storm was so bad i cant remenber it
Thats just a major including mine a massive fail
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1472798 - 10/10/2018 20:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: petethemoskeet]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
You can see the date and time on the bottom.Last update says 8pm


Thatís the forecast time for the selected model.

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#1472799 - 10/10/2018 20:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Below is the thunderstorm script output for the period between 9am today and 6am Thursday morning Stormwalker.

Most things still look good to me for today for numerous storms - the only things I can see that may or may not ruin it are:

1) somewhat dry'ish lower levels initially which may cause most storms to be high-based at first (but may develop lower bases later near the coast)
2) some capping near the coast

3) if activity initiates too early (but if it doesn't, that's great)
4) smaller mesoscale/storm-scale interactions not playing ball with the broadscale setup

Despite those factors, it still looks great for storms in a lot of areas & the steering is strong so there's a distinct possibility that storms could reach parts of the coast after being advected from the more favourable western & southern areas (e.g. Downs, Lockyer Valley, near & south of the QLD/NSW border, etc).
The non-severe storms should come from a WSW direction while any severe cells will deviate from this direction.

Some locations where previous activity hasn't settled down the atmosphere too much might also get further activity continuing through the overnight hours into early tomorrow due to the residual instability.


I think these have been relevant factors so far today.

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#1472800 - 10/10/2018 20:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks Ken
Just cant win a trick
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1472801 - 10/10/2018 20:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Below is the thunderstorm script output for the period between 9am today and 6am Thursday morning Stormwalker.

Most things still look good to me for today for numerous storms - the only things I can see that may or may not ruin it are:

1) somewhat dry'ish lower levels initially which may cause most storms to be high-based at first (but may develop lower bases later near the coast)
2) some capping near the coast

3) if activity initiates too early (but if it doesn't, that's great)
4) smaller mesoscale/storm-scale interactions not playing ball with the broadscale setup

Despite those factors, it still looks great for storms in a lot of areas & the steering is strong so there's a distinct possibility that storms could reach parts of the coast after being advected from the more favourable western & southern areas (e.g. Downs, Lockyer Valley, near & south of the QLD/NSW border, etc).
The non-severe storms should come from a WSW direction while any severe cells will deviate from this direction.

Some locations where previous activity hasn't settled down the atmosphere too much might also get further activity continuing through the overnight hours into early tomorrow due to the residual instability.


I think these have been relevant factors so far today.


Good stuff Ken, just a shame you were on the money.

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#1472802 - 10/10/2018 20:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flippy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/12/2017
Posts: 11
[quote=Nature's Fury]I'm not sure why people expected so much from today or the media hyped up the event so much. The set-up for severe storms (not the garden variety) didn't look that promising on the modelling for most of SEQ for days now, which I've been grumbling about on here since the weekend.

Mate are you serious? Only a couple of days ago on MONDAY morning on this very thread, you posted how excited you were about Wednesday's storm prospects and how promising it looked?? Why say that back then and say this now?

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#1472803 - 10/10/2018 20:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Well

Cant believe how wrong the forcast has been
Oh well
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1472804 - 10/10/2018 21:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
Yeah Ken I think Point no1 was probably the most significant for up here especially with low humidity and dew points recorded for most of the day.

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#1472805 - 10/10/2018 21:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Flippy]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Flippy
[quote=Nature's Fury]I'm not sure why people expected so much from today or the media hyped up the event so much. The set-up for severe storms (not the garden variety) didn't look that promising on the modelling for most of SEQ for days now, which I've been grumbling about on here since the weekend.

Mate are you serious? Only a couple of days ago on MONDAY morning on this very thread, you posted how excited you were about Wednesday's storm prospects and how promising it looked?? Why say that back then and say this now?


I was excited then. Not since haha.

08/10/2018 22:13

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Oh dear, Wednesday is turning on us based on all the recent model runs. What a shame.


09/10/2018 22:32

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
So tomorrow evening/night most of SEQ will get rain/storm action, but it looks a lot more complicated when it comes to severe potential.

It looks like we should see a hot and clear day, possibly well into the afternoon. The westerlies push almost to the coast keeping us dry, but not capped. A strong seabreeze arrives in the afternoon bringing a big injection of moisture and raising CAPE from almost zero to values approaching 2000 along coastal SEQ. This should create a 'Round 1' of storms forming along the seabreeze front in various parts of SEQ. There's a decent lapse rate, some helicity for turning winds and pretty strong easterly steering. There's a chance some of these storms could be severe, although I'm not convinced that we'll see an outbreak of supercells at this point.

Meanwhile the big show is getting started down south. The southerly should reach Byron by about 4 pm, GC around 7 and Brisbane by around 9. Overall it looks absolutely juicy for NE NSW with big instability, cold mids and freezing uppers and good shear. I expect there will be cells with destructive wind and giant hail down there, possibly a major line or supercell pushing NE out to sea off Byron or into GC.

Unfortunately, the timing of the southerly looks to be too late for us, but it should be enough for a decent 'Round 2'. I think all the major activity will exit NE through GC and smash the ocean with the rest of SEQ seeing a coastal-focused band of rain and storms push up the coast. The question is whether the energy will have been sucked out the atmosphere from the afternoon storms in SEQ north of GC. When was the last time we saw a really severe storm in Brisbane off a southerly change at night?

So in summary most of coastal SEQ should see storms significantly favouring GC and NE NSW for severe potential. The arrival of the southerly should then bring widespread rain to most of coastal SEQ.

I'm a little disappointed because this could have been a huge SEQ event if the southerly had arrived earlier, but not to be. There's enough unpredictability about tomorrow to still keep me guessing though. Would be very interested to hear Ken and other's thoughts.

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