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#1473716 - 15/10/2018 12:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Wish it would come & replace some of the dregs we been getting here. Annoying windy drizzle with some sunny patches.


Sun? What is that haha

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#1473717 - 15/10/2018 12:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Wow the viz satellite loop is amazing.

There are multiple smaller vortices within the larger system.

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...tart=&stop=#nav
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1473718 - 15/10/2018 12:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Locke]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Locke
Wow the viz satellite loop is amazing.

There are multiple smaller vortices within the larger system.

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...tart=&stop=#nav


Yep, east coast multi-centred low complex's are so common in this part of the world. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that you don't often see an ECL or similar system that doesn't have at least some form of other secondary weaker/smaller embedded circulations.

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#1473721 - 15/10/2018 12:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
I'm no trained eye, but is that mass about 600k's off shore and swingin through the southern quadrant on that sat view, thunderstorm / heavy rain headin for the goldy??
DD


Edited by DDstorm (15/10/2018 12:46)
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#1473723 - 15/10/2018 12:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
That thunderstorm activity has been sitting out there for days DDstorm just expect more of the same wind and rain but not so heavy.

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#1473724 - 15/10/2018 12:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Locke
Wow the viz satellite loop is amazing.

There are multiple smaller vortices within the larger system.

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...tart=&stop=#nav


Yep, east coast multi-centred low complex's are so common in this part of the world. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that you don't often see an ECL or similar system that doesn't have at least some form of other secondary weaker/smaller embedded circulations.


I see at least 3 smaller vortices rotating around the larger circulation. Very cool !
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1473725 - 15/10/2018 12:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Seems to be travelling at speed, but ok. You've certainly had a deluge this morning. 24 mm's till 9 then 26 mm's from 9 till 11.30. Bucketing!!
DD
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#1473726 - 15/10/2018 13:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
I like the direction this rain band is heading, as long as it doesnt crap itself when it crosses Mt Glorious ranges.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (15/10/2018 13:07)

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#1473727 - 15/10/2018 13:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
I've been tinkering around with a much faster (but much more crude) version of my "model interpreter" script over the last few weeks. This version uses FV3 instead of multiple models.

Just ignore the thunderstorm bits in the output - they still need to be fixed.

There's no real practical purpose to this script though - just purely for my own entertainment purposes to see what sorts of things it spits out for any location you want it to look at. It has been calibrated extensively to past observations though. This is what it spat out for today (showers/rain may ease sooner or later than indicated in the output):







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#1473732 - 15/10/2018 13:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Plenty of pictures and reports have come through since Thursday's storm and it would seem that we got off very lightly compared to Maryborough West. Trees completely stripped, much larger hail (and more of it) and dead livestock all over the place. Many residents out there are still without power also. Just devastating stuff.

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#1473733 - 15/10/2018 13:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yes tragic stuff Mega, could have been a lot worse had the cell not weakened.

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#1473734 - 15/10/2018 13:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I've been tinkering around with a much faster (but much more crude) version of my "model interpreter" script over the last few weeks. This version uses FV3 instead of multiple models.

Just ignore the thunderstorm bits in the output - they still need to be fixed.

There's no real practical purpose to this script though - just purely for my own entertainment purposes to see what sorts of things it spits out for any location you want it to look at. It has been calibrated extensively to past observations though. This is what it spat out for today (showers/rain may ease sooner or later than indicated in the output):



Can't help but ask whether temps in the high teens in October at 1pm should be considered normal for Brisbane and get the green colour?

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#1473735 - 15/10/2018 14:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Can't help but ask whether temps in the high teens in October at 1pm should be considered normal for Brisbane and get the green colour?

I canít renember why I designed it that way (the original design itís based on was from a long time ago) but I think it may have been because I only wanted to highlight potentially hazardous phenomena like thunderstorms in amber and red.

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#1473736 - 15/10/2018 14:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blinky_Bill Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/01/2008
Posts: 530
Loc: Beenleigh SEQ
The showers passing Beenleigh are getting very gusty at the moment.
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Blinky Bill from Wombat Hill

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#1473738 - 15/10/2018 14:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?

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#1473741 - 15/10/2018 14:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: gleno71
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?


Check the most recent page on the day-to-day weather thread. I quoted a poster's thoughts on this from another thread. In this case it appears to be a long-term pattern of active long-wave troughing in the Australian region. This has caused a lot of the persistent storm events in the last month and a bit.

As for this event it's not so much a specific pattern as just a combination of factors, some of which were caused by the long-wave pattern mentioned earlier. We originally had the troughing, then a stalled southerly with an approaching upper trough from central Australia. All that converging low pressure and turning winds in the atmosphere spawned a low complex. There's a strong blocking high in the Tasman pinning the low in place allowing it to remain slow-moving and close to the coast.

Might be off the mark here - Ken and others feel free to correct.

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#1473743 - 15/10/2018 14:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Blob bound for Sunny Coast by the time it curves under low????

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#1473744 - 15/10/2018 15:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
MG4R Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/01/2012
Posts: 224
Loc: Bundaberg
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Blob bound for Sunny Coast by the time it curves under low????


I think Northern suburbs of Brisbane are in line once again for the Low off the coast. It will then be dependent on how it tracks on the coastline as to how much rain areas get.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.

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#1473746 - 15/10/2018 15:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
At 1400 - 25.05S 156.3E, slowly moving away.


Edited by retired weather man (15/10/2018 15:45)

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#1473747 - 15/10/2018 16:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That next trough is giving it the shove east.

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