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#1473410 - 13/10/2018 18:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
this reminds me of something of a low close by with heavy drizzle and wind at times. Historically these thing get worse at night, time will tell, but here in brissy i wouldn't mind seeing at least strong winds. Anything can happen. Ken normally the southern side gets the worst weather so surprised the bom haven't put out a heads up, just in case ?
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1473413 - 13/10/2018 19:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Shower activity bringing 18.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am, and 3.0mm since 9am here.

The minor flood watch for the Wilsons River has been discontinued. However, it remains in force for the Bellinger/Kalang and the Orara:
Quote:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.
Flood Watch for the Orara and Bellinger Rivers
Issued at 10:29 am EDT on Saturday 13 October 2018
Flood Watch Number: 2
Minor riverine flooding may develop in the Orara and Bellinger Rivers from Sunday onwards.
A low pressure trough over parts of the northeast of New South Wales may bring moderate falls in the Mid North Coast over the weekend and early next week.
The weather system is likely to bring intense rainfall and has the potential to cause riverine flooding from Sunday onwards.
Catchments likely to be affected include:

Orara River, minor flooding
Bellinger and Kalang Rivers, minor flooding

Flooding is no longer expected in the following catchments: Wilsons River.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/flood/floodwatch1.shtml

Btw, I've done one final extension of this thread to the 16th to cover the coastal low's potential rain / showery flow.

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#1473414 - 13/10/2018 19:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Check out the last few frames on the Emerald doppler!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR72I.loop.shtml#skip

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#1473415 - 13/10/2018 19:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
BOM 4 day chart has low forming off Fraser and staying put for two days!! Bucketing down now. Could get interesting around Sunny Coast.

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#1473417 - 13/10/2018 19:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Meant to add this to my post.


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#1473418 - 13/10/2018 19:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
The huge change in forecast for the sunny coast between the scheduled 4am and updated 11am today says itís a guessing game. Yes a low would be interesting

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#1473420 - 13/10/2018 19:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
one good sign, cape moretons average wind speed been steadily increasing , now to 34 knts. Hope it keeps going
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#1473421 - 13/10/2018 19:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 120
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
one good sign, cape moretons average wind speed been steadily increasing , now to 34 knts. Hope it keeps going


There is a severe weather warning on the BOM site now, I was reading it before, looks like signs of a low forming " Weather Situation:

At 4pm AEST, a slow-moving low pressure complex was situated off Fraser Island. The low pressure system is expected to remain offshore of the southeast Queensland coast tonight, but may develop a track back towards the coast during Sunday. A high pressure system in the Tasman Sea is otherwise expected to strengthen over the weekend as it shifts slowly eastwards towards New Zealand.
The combination of these two systems will cause a long fetch of strong to possibly gale force southeasterly winds near the southeast Queensland coast and large waves about exposed beaches south of Cape Moreton."

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#1473422 - 13/10/2018 19:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: weatheriam]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: weatheriam
Check out the last few frames on the Emerald doppler!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR72I.loop.shtml#skip

Iím not at home but had a quick look at the Doppler precip and winds on my phone and it doesnít look like anything untoward - just the usual deceptive-looking returns that occur in situations like this.

In other news, hereís an animation of the 00z run of ACCESS-C hourly precip from 8pm tonight to 10pm Sunday night via Weatherzone Layers for anyone interested - this is one of the scenarios that try to bring one of the lows back towards the coast;



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#1473423 - 13/10/2018 19:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: weatheriam]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 120
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: weatheriam
Check out the last few frames on the Emerald doppler!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR72I.loop.shtml#skip


There's no homes in that area so I guess the strong winds/or whatever won't be recorded Weatheriam.

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#1473424 - 13/10/2018 19:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 120
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Thanks Ken, good to see that possible scenario, be interesting to see what happens.

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#1473425 - 13/10/2018 19:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Seems to be a bit of an E'ly drift of precip on Sunsine C. on Stapy.

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#1473428 - 13/10/2018 20:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld

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#1473430 - 13/10/2018 20:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Except for GFS, there's model agreement between EC, Access-R and Access-C that the low will approach SE QLD and dump 50-100mm along coastal SEQ tomorrow afternoon and evening with variations about where the heaviest falls will be.

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#1473431 - 13/10/2018 20:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Your welcome to it NF. Been raining here for hours.

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#1473434 - 13/10/2018 21:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Moon & stars are out.

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#1473436 - 13/10/2018 21:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
explorer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 555
Loc: Coolum Beach, Qld
It has been raining quite heavily here for hours. So far this event has brought us over 150mm of rain. I have just emptied the rain gauge with a max of 150mm but it was over that by at least 1cm, so no sure what would that be now. There is water over some local roads, but we do not mind this steady rain, with a bit of a breeze even, as long as the nasty windy stuff stays away ...

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#1473437 - 13/10/2018 22:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Ken, that senario looks awesome. Thx for the vid
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#1473440 - 13/10/2018 22:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Definitely a good ESE motion with precip on Stapy now, might even reach us with some luck.

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#1473452 - 14/10/2018 01:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
So is it the strengthening high in the Tasman or another influence that will/may bring the low towards the coast? i.e. Upper pattern.
DD
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