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#1472560 - 09/10/2018 18:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Yeah Mega, even within 24 to 48hrs, I find the 00z runs can be a bit erratic with certain parameters although it could be that they make up for it in certain setups since the objective scores clearly show that skill is better with shorter lead times. It's just a suspicion really but I do know of a forecaster who's also noticed a similar trait.

Hard to say with confidence whether it'll be the case with the situation you're talking about though. It could well be that the 00z run wins out. I haven't looked closely at the setup for a few days now but will be doing so soon.

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#1472562 - 09/10/2018 18:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
It looks like GFS is showing something similar in it's 00z run.

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#1472564 - 09/10/2018 19:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1268
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
7.5mm at front and 9mm at back. 😍
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1472565 - 09/10/2018 19:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
AccessG in it's 00z is not quite as bad as the other two but showing a tendency to move the heavier rain more nth.

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#1472567 - 09/10/2018 19:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah ACCESS-R is actually the same as EC. Change just blasts up to CQ. Game over from Thursday night.

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#1472569 - 09/10/2018 19:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Lani]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1546
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: Lani
7.5mm at front and 9mm at back. 😍
Nice drop there Lani.
Guess you will sad to see the dust go huh? lol

I'd say we'd be near the 10mm mark here; starting to green up nicely without any hard work on my part lol.

Damned shattering lightning at the end though.
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#1472570 - 09/10/2018 19:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I can't believe this re stapy. For gods sake didn't they learn from last time and put in a contingency plan for the ( this is really obvious) event it happens again which in my book was certain. Sticking a mobile dopler of some sort besides the current one isn't that stupid. I want my money back because the bom don't keep a lessons learn't register. EG a register to learn from previous mistakes, in this case keeping the current contract going. I would have ripped it up the last time they had an outage.
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1472571 - 09/10/2018 19:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
It's hard to work out how there can be such a big turn around in one run of the models.

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#1472572 - 09/10/2018 19:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Hard to believe a rain system is going to move north. Usually the opposite happens and they end up in Sydney!!

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#1472574 - 09/10/2018 19:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
My oldest son looked at the forecast & said, HA, 100mm of bulldust more like it!
Hmmmm.
Rainbow Beach is the latest GFS wet spot.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (09/10/2018 19:35)

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#1472577 - 09/10/2018 19:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1253
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
10.6mm here this evening. Some pretty speccy storms around these parts last few days, good stuff for early October. Haven't had much more than brief heavy showers at home but there have been reports of hail, damaging winds and falls of 100mm+ around Kingaroy from this event.
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 660mm

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#1472578 - 09/10/2018 20:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 91
Loc: noosaville
Amazing storm here in Noosa this arvo. Wind wasn't too bad but the rain was some of the heaviest I've seen. Ended up with 85mm in less than an hour here at home.

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#1472580 - 09/10/2018 20:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 571
Loc: Salisbury
Good to read of some getting the big falls, we are at 19mm event total here and 30mm all up from the past few weeks. Not complaining at all about the 30mm, but geez it's a far cry from some of the amounts others have been receiving of late.....atleast the rain here has had a chance to soak in rather then run straight off into the gutter, so that's a positive.

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#1472581 - 09/10/2018 20:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Yeah that is correct Ken, on WZ map which I think is a better option for the majority.
Looking at BoM's map they had a massive blanket area which only a portion was affected by severe storms.

Yesterday aside, the problem with having a blanket warning for an entire district is that there's often times when storms are likely to only affect a small portion of the district, especially if that district is a big one. For example, say only 20% of a district is likely to get a severe storm, the other 80% get un-necessarily warned. If that happens repeatedly, it creates a boy who cried wolf syndrome, people get complacent and start ignoring warnings. I see it all the time on social media. It's always better to be as specific as possible about which areas deserve a warning but also taking the uncertainty of the boundaries of that warning into account.



That's why I like the Early Warning Network app, it goes on your location and you only receive a warning if your in a particular area.

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#1472582 - 09/10/2018 20:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
We've been pretty lucky in Kingaroy so far with the storms.

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#1472584 - 09/10/2018 20:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Nice storm here, nothing too severe but I only speak from my location near the CBD.

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#1472586 - 09/10/2018 20:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Not a drop..again
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1472589 - 09/10/2018 20:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
Stapy is back.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2019 YTD: 221 mm; 2018: 1,078 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1472591 - 09/10/2018 20:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 606
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Yup, beat me, Thought it be out all night, but there ya go, - she'll go off again midday tomoz or early arvo, touch wood haha
_________________________
Weather or not ?

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#1472594 - 09/10/2018 20:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Always use to wounder why yhe townsville weather radar would have planned service outages for days over the wet season but none in the dry season
Perhaps same supply company as the stapy
Good that its back on
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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