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#840537 - 03/03/2010 06:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Helen]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3591
Loc: Adelaide
Helen I'd be interested to know if you've found the prevailing south-easterlies during the past few weeks pleasant and cooling or a nuisance. We've had many beautiful evenings here with cooling south-easterly breezes or winds, just right for doing back yard and garden jobs. The only problem was with this current high where the wind was mod to fresh for long periods over two days which did cause a few minor problems eg nails coming loose in the galvo fence and shade "cloths" (old sheets) fraying so I had to take them down.
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#840550 - 03/03/2010 08:35 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3930
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
the addition of a cutoff low into the models certainly
throws a cat amongst the pigeons.a whole different ball
game now. the actual track centre will determine on
analysis who gets what, atm gfs good for adelaide, ec
good for s.e. but if the models keep shifting everything
east each run then we all still get diddly squat.

TH
雷自殺的瘋狂獵人和白色
指關節猛衝與球的追趕者
并且我的生日打开行军第九
*̡͌l̡*̡̡ ̴̡ı̴̴̡ ̡̡͡|̲̲̲͡͡͡ ̲▫̲͡ ̲̲̲͡͡π̲̲͡͡ ̲̲͡▫̲̲͡͡ ̲|̡̡̡ ̡ ̴̡ı̴̡̡ *̡͌l̡*
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#840567 - 03/03/2010 10:18 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
Hey TH that cut off low is the one on BSCH is forecasting later saturday?
Because I saw the 18z model and my mouth opened in nearly utter horror! Where did this instability come from? I can't see anything storm-worthy surely because the temps will be ccoler and we Should be in that SW airstream! anyway we'll see what the 00Z update looks like. usually that's the best run I've been told.
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#840577 - 03/03/2010 10:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weathergod]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17597
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Firstly BSCH is GFS for those that may have thought it was a different model.

Secondly yer I wouldnt put too much faith in that little cut-off happening....
Upper low is there (which brings the instability) so I suppose that could bring about some form of surface vorticity in the area, but progging 125mm over the Adelaide Hills over the weekend is a little far-fetched.... whistle Plus it will ruin my long weekend!

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#840585 - 03/03/2010 11:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
Don't waste your time with 18z runs Mason. The difference between 18z and 12z is disappointing but realistic smile

Following on from the Storm Deprived post, it is truly once in a blue moon that Adelaide ever does well out of a tropical infeed. The average annual rainfall would be a lot higher otherwise.

NW and SW streams are the way to go

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#840588 - 03/03/2010 11:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: seaworthy]
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
yer true Ben the reality check really sinks in when the opposite happens, we just have to live with that these days frown

I could do with a easterly infeed similar to the Dec 04 surge with storms all over the place. But that event was once every 6 years, so we are due for another one like that. Prob not until spring/summer though..
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#840605 - 03/03/2010 12:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weathergod]
-Deano- Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/10/2008
Posts: 2931
Loc: Melton VIC
Interesting that the BoM seem to have upgraded their forecast a little bit for Friday/Saturday. Still, I'm not going to hold my breath...

This little bit has got me very interested:
"Isolated thunderstorms and more frequent showers are likely over Kangaroo Island, southern Fleurieu Peninsula and the South East district during the afternoon and evening associated with another cold front."
Perhaps a taste of what is soon to come? smile

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#840606 - 03/03/2010 12:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: -Deano-]
split_city Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2008
Posts: 1033
Loc: Port Noarlunga, South Australi...
Yay! Final, bound PhD thesis submitted to uni. Now "unofficially" Dr. Dan grin Won't be official until probably July, but I won't complain about people using the title in the meantime wink

To the weather....hhhmm....some form of precipitation would be nice. I don't think the garden can last much longer!

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#840619 - 03/03/2010 13:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: -Deano-]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Seams that way Deano, as TH mentioned the cut off is the interesting one to watch now, depends where it positions itself as to whether Adelaide gets a good soaking, the hills & ranges should see something to measure, but it is 2-3 days away & could go either way

Be disappointing to see 2 pumping Low pressure systems stick some part of there formation into SA but neither of them doing much for metro, but at the same time as already mentioned in previous posts, it's a good sign of what may be to come in coming months.
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#840620 - 03/03/2010 13:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Olaf]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
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#840626 - 03/03/2010 14:01 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Olaf]
Thunderstruck Online   content
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14973
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
The weekend is still looking good for me, nice convergent sw flow on the back of a freshly formed sfc low, the belt of convergence is across a narrow path so a small change in low position will result is a large rainfall total change. But to me for now it looks good for squally sw winds with frequent showers and the odd isolated thunderstorm, there is a nice cold pool aloft being undercut but nice moist sw winds passing over warm gulfs riding up the ranges. Sweet spots through the hills could well see 50-60mm from this it would not surprise me in the slightest. Adelaide for now probably around 5-10mm with higher falls through some hills areas and lower much further north tapering off to next to nothing past the Upper North.

TS cool

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#840688 - 03/03/2010 18:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
Wow split_city, quite a big day for you indeed, congratulations! What was your thesis on by the way?

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#840710 - 03/03/2010 20:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3930
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i cant see adelaide getting any better than 5mm, be
isolated not general if it does, same with ranges,
higher dumps will be isolated, so will any thunder,
with the emphasis on isolated.
the the gfs trend holds rock solid, rather than come
up and whack us, it will approach s.a., poke its
tounge out and go beep beep like the road runner and
then p.o.q. to the east. gunna b a few good coldies to b
had down here at least, a nice little snippy taste of
winter for a day or two.
there's no doubt about u deno, u r quick off the mark,
with winter fast approaching this could definatley be
a sign of things to come.
certainly not a break as far as breaks go but a nice
appetizer, and the data bugs gnawing on me dags are
telling me the wait for a decent break is going to
be long and tedious. i'm working on sometime around
mid may for something seriously significant to happen.

TH
雷自殺的瘋狂獵人和白色
指關節猛衝與球的追趕者
并且我的生日打开行军第九
*̡͌l̡*̡̡ ̴̡ı̴̴̡ ̡̡͡|̲̲̲͡͡͡ ̲▫̲͡ ̲̲̲͡͡π̲̲͡͡ ̲̲͡▫̲̲͡͡ ̲|̡̡̡ ̡ ̴̡ı̴̡̡ *̡͌l̡*
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#840715 - 03/03/2010 20:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Farm Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2009
Posts: 845
Loc: West Mallee SA
anyone remember march 1983? We cracked 98mm for the month
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#840730 - 03/03/2010 21:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Farm Weather]
-Deano- Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/10/2008
Posts: 2931
Loc: Melton VIC
*Sigh* I made the dissapointing mistake of looking at the Melbourne forecast and what they will get out of this...seems they are doing veeerrrryyy well so far this year from systems that just seem to be bypassing us.

Oh well, you gotta take what you can get I spose, 20 degrees and windy is more my cup of tea though smile

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#840732 - 03/03/2010 21:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Farm Weather]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3930
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: Farm Weather
anyone remember march 1983? We cracked 98mm
for the month


i don't remember march but i remember february like it was yesterday.

TH
雷自殺的瘋狂獵人和白色
指關節猛衝與球的追趕者
并且我的生日打开行军第九
*̡͌l̡*̡̡ ̴̡ı̴̴̡ ̡̡͡|̲̲̲͡͡͡ ̲▫̲͡ ̲̲̲͡͡π̲̲͡͡ ̲̲͡▫̲̲͡͡ ̲|̡̡̡ ̡ ̴̡ı̴̡̡ *̡͌l̡*
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#840737 - 03/03/2010 21:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
split_city Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2008
Posts: 1033
Loc: Port Noarlunga, South Australi...
Originally Posted By: _Chris_
Wow split_city, quite a big day for you indeed, congratulations! What was your thesis on by the way?


Thanks Chris. Yes it's very exciting. Five years of hard work has finally paid off (in addition to my year of Honours and three years of my undergraduate degree).

I have been looking at pathogenic factors which may contribute to a common sleep disorder known as obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). More to the point, why is it more common in obese males. Let me just say the "beer belly" may strike again, as it potentially contributes to OSA.

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#840746 - 03/03/2010 22:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: split_city]
buggerthatwasclose Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/11/2003
Posts: 1189
Loc: HILLBANK, S.A. 80m.asl- great ...
I may be reading this wrong but it's got lots of pretty colours all around Adelaide for SUNDAY at 4.30pm and each side of it.

I realise it's only a 06z reading but it still looks better than Saturday, just a thought grin

John

Well done Split_City cheers
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#840747 - 03/03/2010 22:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: split_city]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1655
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
congrats split_city, hope you get what you looking for. My girlfriends brother and her cousin has OSA and there both on breathing machines to help with there sleep.

I myself just snore like most typical males, albeit a raspy breathing snore,, not your loud window rattling type thank god.

Hmm lets have another looky at the sat pic. Cloud streaming down from that invisible low with gobs of moisture over NSW and northern SA. Front and associated low approaching from the west. Front is nothing special, but more to the point it will get hear with cloud and wind and it's looking like showers in a south westerly stream of soughts, but still early days. North east cloudband looking threatening and ROVES may have to put down his binoculars and look up,, i'll give it that much.

ADELAIDE i still think a big fat 0 mm from that north east system, possible shower or two over the hills but thats stretching the imagination with some really mind bending drugs smile

Hellen should at least see some threatening clouds and could be out and about with her camera taking more of her astounding pics that we OOOH AND AHHHH over,,, with a bit of druel to match,,, tounge draggin on the ground stuff.

So cloud over the metro is all but assured , it's just a matter or how thick it gets.

Ahhh look just for the record, my weather station is screaming rain again,,,,, i think i need to reprogram it,, to many errors lately smile


Edited by Weather Guru (03/03/2010 22:03)
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Jan 10.2 mm
Feb 3.9 mm
Mar 6.3 mm
Apr 14.8
May 20.7
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2018 55.9 mm
2017 487.2 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
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2012 417
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#840763 - 03/03/2010 22:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: buggerthatwasclose]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
That looks very impressive, certainly plenty of colour, perhaps they got bored & added it for some fun, this certainly looks like an error, -8?????

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast.h...rt=li#stormcast
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�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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