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#1473378 - 13/10/2018 15:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2654
"Itís straight from the right wing handbook."

Yes I agree. It's curious that a paper that is not peer-reviewed is made out to be thus, in order to lend an air of credibility to it.

Actual real peer reviewed papers are summarily dismissed by the same people with claims of "it's pal reviewed" and "they're towing the line" and "they're in it for the grant money" etc, etc.

Interestingly the supervisor of that Phd student who wrote the thesis is Peter Ridd, who was fired from James Cook University for breaching his employment's code of conduct.

https://www.jcu.edu.au/news/releases/2018/may/statement-about-peter-ridd
_________________________

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#1473383 - 13/10/2018 16:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Iíve said it before and Iíll say again. If you donít trust scientists. You should boycott going to the doctors. Take a stand! Iíd be pretty pissed if people tweeted etc that Iím doing my job wrong by unqualified people.

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#1473386 - 13/10/2018 16:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Oh and by the way. This latest rain is MJO and partly Sam related. MJO going back to phase 1 or 8 could bring more rain to the east . Tho being a transitional time for Sam it could go either way. Was the MJO in the same spot last October?

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#1473388 - 13/10/2018 17:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CeeBee]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
"Itís straight from the right wing handbook."

Yes I agree. It's curious that a paper that is not peer-reviewed is made out to be thus, in order to lend an air of credibility to it.

Actual real peer reviewed papers are summarily dismissed by the same people with claims of "it's pal reviewed" and "they're towing the line" and "they're in it for the grant money" etc, etc.

Interestingly the supervisor of that Phd student who wrote the thesis is Peter Ridd, who was fired from James Cook University for breaching his employment's code of conduct.

https://www.jcu.edu.au/news/releases/2018/may/statement-about-peter-ridd


Neither are relevant, the Uni thought it good enough to make him a PHD and who cares who his supervisors was.

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#1473389 - 13/10/2018 17:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
😂

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#1473391 - 13/10/2018 17:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Can't see this thread lasting much longer at the rate it's going. Quite amazing how the guys over at Storm2k are able to hold a civil discussion in their ENSO thread from 2007 without letting their personal agendas get in the way.

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#1473393 - 13/10/2018 17:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Haha! Yeah, a supervisor being fired for ďdeliberately publishing comments that were untrue, failing to manage his conflict of interest obligationsĒ wouldnít potentially grant a student the right to pursue a dubious PHD haha.

What was that other ridiculous quote you posted Kino? That one about how humans as an animal do better in warm climates so it doesnít how warm the planet gets haha!

Great to CeeBee back on here.

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#1473394 - 13/10/2018 17:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Haha! Great to CeeBee back on here.


Given the way he bragged and carried on on another website about how his aim was to get the AGW section on here shutdown, I beg to differ. I am actually surprised his account is still not banned tbh.

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#1473395 - 13/10/2018 17:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: Mega
Can't see this thread lasting much longer at the rate it's going. Quite amazing how the guys over at Storm2k are able to hold a civil discussion in their ENSO thread from 2007 without letting their personal agendas get in the way.


Well, we should be able to discuss anything provided it is backed by evidence or if not reasoned clearly so that whatever assumptions made can be questioned and verified.
Calling bs on dubious papers or whatnot that are used to make a point isnít a problem in my view. No one is getting hurt by a bit of heated debate and the tendency of some of the moderators to close the debate when certain points of view get torn to shreds leads me to suspect where some of their views on this prickly topic lie.

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#1473398 - 13/10/2018 17:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: Mega
Can't see this thread lasting much longer at the rate it's going. Quite amazing how the guys over at Storm2k are able to hold a civil discussion in their ENSO thread from 2007 without letting their personal agendas get in the way.


Well, we should be able to discuss anything provided it is backed by evidence or if not reasoned clearly so that whatever assumptions made can be questioned and verified.
Calling bs on dubious papers or whatnot that are used to make a point isnít a problem in my view. No one is getting hurt by a bit of heated debate and the tendency of some of the moderators to close the debate when certain points of view get torn to shreds leads me to suspect where some of their views on this prickly topic lie.


I don't care either way, but you know what happens when such a discussion carries on, mods end up closing the whole thread because someone gets 'offended' and the rest of us have to suffer. It seems as though the ban hammer doesn't exist on here anymore.

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#1473403 - 13/10/2018 18:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1928
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Thanks for the link Mega. Seems to be less mud slinging over there.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1473407 - 13/10/2018 18:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Australia is under that water vapour (plenty streaming in accross Pt Headland too), rain ....and look at all the storms about atm!:



Again October is delivering, despite the waters off Qld "not that warm".

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#1473419 - 13/10/2018 19:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
This youtube clip is quite interesting. it covers off drivers that I have heard little about and also cycle intersections/completions that are occuring right now, including a 297 year cycle. I dont know much about or have a particular opinion on Kevin Long, but it all makes sense enough to me. Air tides in particular is an area I will spend more time on. Angular momentum and the Barrie centre also.
I actually really hope these predictions are not right, because if they are the next couple years are going to be terrible.

This clip has a clear cold bias....a big warning to anyone who just cant watch "through" this for the sake of the other very interesting information it contains. Maybe just dont watch it.

We need deeper and more extensive drivers injected into this debate. This video Still doesnt cover the elephant (and I wonder what affect that will have on these cycles), but this guy is onto stuff worth exploring IMO. The thread is in a rather useless state...so I figure it cant get any worse by posting this. Or can it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kcoMDFHbro&feature=share

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#1473432 - 13/10/2018 21:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Sorry GR that video is full of unsubstantiated opinion, not science. Yes I watched most of it and yes I wish I hadn't.

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#1473438 - 13/10/2018 22:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Petros
Australia is under that water vapour (plenty streaming in accross Pt Headland too), rain ....and look at all the storms about atm!:



Again October is delivering, despite the waters off Qld "not that warm".

One would think itís mid spring.

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#1473457 - 14/10/2018 07:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Sorry GR that video is full of unsubstantiated opinion, not science. Yes I watched most of it and yes I wish I hadn't.


Astounding. I could give a good psychological assessment for nuts like this Kevin Long but that would be drifting off topic a bit haha.


Edited by Eigerwand (14/10/2018 07:13)

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#1473483 - 14/10/2018 11:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
Maybe the rain and storms we're getting now in the lead up to an El Nino is a sign that the drought pattern we're in is breaking down and it could swing very wet next year into 2020

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#1473506 - 14/10/2018 13:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
The overall atmospheric pattern for the last 90 days shows some significant el nino characteristics. But there does seem to be a continuation of a trend that I started to notice even back in 2015 for NE/SW Pacific to be more el nino and SE/NW Pacific to be more La Nina like. Warm ENSO have seen strongest expression in NE/SW with SE/NW being a bit more neutral, and Cool ENSO strongest in SE/NW with SW/NE not really switching over to a cool mode at all in the last few years.



NW Pacific has enhanced tropical activity generally, which is assisting the westelry activity. However the NW Pacific high is still pressing in the middle, which is boosting trade winds during lulls in the typhoon activity. A lot of the typhoon activity is steering towards the coast which I believe is more La Nina like. It does have the effect of reducing the amount of westerlies produced by any individual typhoon as it heads NW across the Philippines etc. The initial stages of transition from el nino to La Nina are driven by a strengthening NW Pacific high so hopefully a good sign there. Overall I'd say the NW is neutral, maybe a little bit on the el nino side.

NE Pacific is strongly el nino like, and has been the key driver of the push towards el nino with strong tropical activity throughout favouring westerly activity. NE Pacific high is pushed much further north with little chance to help boost trades in gaps between hurricane activity.

SE Pacific is still in La Nina mode with enhanced high pressure boosting trades. Overall it has weakened a bit since last year which has helped NE Pacific achieve the upper hand, and in the last month it has actually been pretty close to neutral.

SW Pacific still el nino like with enhanced ridging near the east coast, and enhanced troughing out near Fiji. Similar pattern to what we saw last year. Not much of an influence the last few months as the tropical activity has been in the NH, but as the SH approaches its tropical wet season it will play an increasing role in tropical trade wind/WWB activity. This pattern tends to tilt subtropical trade winds more towards the SE in contrast to a La Nina like pattern which will tilt subtropical trade winds more towards the east or north east, and with warmer trade winds an carry more moisture.

The current rain event has seen the SW pattern reverse towards a more La Nina like pattern. The MJO has entered the La Nina favorable Indian Ocean zones, but is forecast to stay there only briefly.


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#1473536 - 14/10/2018 16:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Maybe the rain and storms we're getting now in the lead up to an El Nino is a sign that the drought pattern we're in is breaking down and it could swing very wet next year into 2020


See my post a week or so ago, re suggestions for the next few years.

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#1473551 - 14/10/2018 17:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Interesting post Mike.

That MSLP anomoly shows no anomoly right along the Pacific equator!. So the ENSO neutral conditions we are experiencing could be explained by that chart?

Also very interesting to me, is that chart compares the MSLP anomoly against a period 1955 - 1996 (virtually coincides with the BOM's "period of convenience").

Other anomoly charts seem to use the weird period 30 years to 2010. What is why this tiro is skeptical about using them (apples with apples).

I reckon the data shows neutral conditions to remain in coming weeks/month. If SST rises at the Galapagos I's (cessation of the trades driven upwelling) - then it would be Nino game on imo.

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