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#1472352 - 08/10/2018 08:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4749
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..8 OCT 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......19.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........82%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SSE 12Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1019.5HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......25.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....14.20
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...13.8C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1019.0Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 37kph at 1131
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...No significant weather.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct132.8(95)YTD854.4(928.6)

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#1472503 - 09/10/2018 13:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1561
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Hi all. I'm thinking of taking next wednesday to Friday off. Looking at the charts, they look more storm like for that period. Others agree ?
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#1472599 - 09/10/2018 21:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7222
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Oh wow, I just realised that pic on previous page was so large (took it on phone). Apologies, will resize next time.

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#1472611 - 09/10/2018 23:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2201
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Hi all. I'm thinking of taking next wednesday to Friday off. Looking at the charts, they look more storm like for that period. Others agree ?


Definitely instability and a wet signal during those days. Looks promising.

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#1472613 - 09/10/2018 23:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
Oh wow, I just realised that pic on previous page was so large (took it on phone). Apologies, will resize next time.


If you mean the radar image it is fine on my screen Mega.
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#1473080 - 11/10/2018 22:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: ColdFront]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2201
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
2 great posts from Mike in the Climate Drivers thread that might explain why we are having an active start to the storm season after the long dry spell:

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think this is indicative of why mature el nino is not so bad for rainfall outside the tropics.



Here tropical activity is focused a long way east out near Fiji. The deep tropical trades are blocked out near Fiji, so until the NW monsoon flow can get going later in summer the tropics are bit starved for moisture. But once tropical activity pushes this far east there is room for a nice long high pressure ridge through subtropics allowing reasonable moisture to reach the subtropical parts of Australia. Not as good as when the tropics and subtropics are both pumping in moisture, but not bad either.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Petros

....so you are expecting good October rains for much of Aus SE?


Normal el nino influence is for rains to improve for most of NSW and subtropical Qld through Spring. Tropical Qld and Vic/Tas have to wait more towards summer before dry conditions ease. IOD also looks poor for Vic/SA but thats not really my thing.

The Polar Vortex seems to have been extending in Australia'ss direction a lot in the last couple months. Lots of upper troughs seem to be giving SEQ a pretty good start to the storm season, and I'd imagine it would be helping SE Australia as well. Don't know why this is happening or how long it will continue for.

See the big area of blue anomalies on this 90 day chart representing more frequent upper troughing in Australia's region.



I remember commenting back last year that there was a 3-node pattern, whereas the longwave trough is usually described as alternating between 4 or 5 nodes. ENSO tends to set one node in SE Pacific, and the 3 node pattern seems to set up a favorable node near Australia for El nino instead of peak upper troughing being near NZ and SE Indian Ocean in a 4 node pattern.

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#1473120 - 12/10/2018 07:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3307
Loc: Buderim
Thanks NF. Not sure how much the first one applies as my logic is centered around low pressure out near Fiji which has not appeared and does not appear to be a factor. The strong and long high in Tasman is a factor. Not sure if that has anything to do with El Nino or ENSO.

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#1473144 - 12/10/2018 10:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5416
Hereís how I see things playing out...

From today (Fri) into the weekend in SE QLD, showers should gradually start becoming more extensive & eventually tend to steadier rain from time to time (the better amounts should be in northern parts at first). At this stage, the more extensive rainfall looks like becoming less extensive by the start of the working week next week but that could still change.

Daytimes will also be very cool under the cloud cover & many places will probably struggle to reach around 20C by the weekend, if not the teens. Daytimes should slowly warm up next week.
Also, IF a small east coast low forms close enough to the coast with enough intensity, it could get windy along the coast on its southern flank.

Rainfall amounts will probably get lower as you go further inland although some areas in the north could get some reasonable amounts.
Some, but not all, locations near the coastal fringe & hinterlands could eventually approach 100mm or even more by the time all is said & done... and this could also extend down onto the northern NSW coast but only if any coastal trough or low digs far enough south.
We have a moist onshore wind flow getting lifted by an approaching upper level trough (aided by a surface trough or small low which may help to focus the rainfall).

BUT if any coastal trough or low is weaker than expected, forms further out to sea or further south than expected, SE QLD wonít get as much rain (or itíll clear much earlier than expected.
On the other hand, if the surface trough or low forms just to our north & hangs around there longer than expected, we could get heavier rain which lasts longer.

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#1473145 - 12/10/2018 10:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1133
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
that sounds like a wet weekend to me. love it.

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#1473618 - 14/10/2018 22:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: BIG T]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2201
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Extended forecasts suggesting rain and storms about SEQ for the next two weeks. That would mean we've had rain and storms in SEQ for almost the entire month of October. What an extraordinary start to the storm season that would be.

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#1473620 - 14/10/2018 22:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5416
I'm not sold yet on rain as in steady day-long rain from midweek.

Looks more to me like it might be a case of mix of sun and clouds interrupted by possible showers or thunderstorms at times... at least from midweek til next weekend.
That is of course, the current lows off the coast move away.

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#1473796 - 16/10/2018 08:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2201
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
November has consistently looked very dry for eastern Aus on the CFS forecasts. Looks like the long-wave troughing pattern breaks down by the end of this month.

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#1473882 - 16/10/2018 19:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Online   content
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3250
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea I just can't get into those long range forecasts when we are flat out forcasting a week out? November typically is the best month for storms but ya never know couldbe a dud.


Edited by Steve O (16/10/2018 19:54)

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#1473884 - 16/10/2018 19:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5416
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Yea I just can't get into those long range forecasts when we are flat out forcasting a week out?

It's a bit of a case of apples and oranges. Unlike shorter range forecasts, long range forecasts typically average expected rainfall, temps, etc over much larger time windows so any strong signal in the weather/climate system tends to manifest themselves fairly obviously in those forecasts. They also use ensemble techniques more. Whereas short range forecasts focus on shorter time windows (e.g. individual days) so are more susceptible to even small timing errors. This is especially the case with trying to forecast thunderstorms.

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#1473885 - 16/10/2018 19:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2201
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
CFS generally does a decent job of detecting temperature and rain anomalies a couple of weeks out. Same with the NAEFS maps that Ken sometimes posts.

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#1473895 - 16/10/2018 22:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1583
Loc: Australia
Windy also has a thunderstorm forecast however it looks like the EC version if i'm not mistaken

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#1473898 - 16/10/2018 22:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5416
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Windy also has a thunderstorm forecast however it looks like the EC version if i'm not mistaken

Correct. Itís actually a lightning flash density forecast from EC which doesnít directly forecast lightning but uses the height of the convective cloud base, CAPE, and the distribution of graupel, ice crystals and rain inside the cloud.

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#1473905 - 17/10/2018 07:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1583
Loc: Australia
Thanks Ken, so EC and GFS are the only two models that have a thunderstorm outlook?

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#1473906 - 17/10/2018 07:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5416
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Thanks Ken, so EC and GFS are the only two models that have a thunderstorm outlook?

GFS doesnít have that forecast parameter. Like most models, you have to infer thunderstorm potential by looking at the instability, precip, etc that itís forecasting (they parametrise convection). The only exceptions are convection-allowing models that explicitly model individual storms & lightning potential.

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#1473913 - 17/10/2018 08:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4749
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..17 OCT 2018 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......22.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........83%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SE 7Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.8HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........4/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........3.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.0Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 36kph at 1246
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Overnight Showers.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct132.8(95)YTD854.4(928.6)

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