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#1473526 - 14/10/2018 15:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Another 6mm here yesterday. Just some wind blown mist so far today. Total for the event so far is 82.5mm.
If some sort of stronger low forms at the coast, we might see an end to the heavier falls inland here. Does this make sense?
I hope for a broad area of low pressure to continue so we cal all share in the watery goodness.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1473528 - 14/10/2018 16:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 571
Loc: Salisbury
Finally cracked the 50.0mm mark event total here...now sitting at 50.6mm

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#1473529 - 14/10/2018 16:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Namarrkun]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The blob is coming! Going to be some serious rain under that storm wherever it lands.

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#1473531 - 14/10/2018 16:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
That blob looks to hit the border unfortunately - no where near brisbane
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1473532 - 14/10/2018 16:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sandbank Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 71
Throwing it down at Caloundra South.

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#1473533 - 14/10/2018 16:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
At 1500 - 25.4S 153.4E.


Edited by retired weather man (14/10/2018 16:21)

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#1473534 - 14/10/2018 16:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
That blob looks to hit the border unfortunately - no where near brisbane


It's swinging to the NW. It looks to make landfall around southern parts of SEQ but it should then move up toward Brisbane.

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#1473537 - 14/10/2018 16:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
one drop Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 117
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
At 1500 - 25.5S 153.1E.


about eurong.

models to the side for the moment, do these things generally intensify a bit at night?

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#1473538 - 14/10/2018 16:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: one drop]
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: one drop
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
At 1500 - 25.5S 153.1E.


about eurong.

models to the side for the moment, do these things generally intensify a bit at night?


Thanks RWM


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#1473539 - 14/10/2018 16:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
GFS suggests low pressure just east of Maroochydore, 500hp low just west of Brisbane, and 300hp upper level trough NE/SW through Bundaberg. Gympie doppler wind hints at a low a little further north than GFS suggests, maybe east of Rainbow Beach. GFS suggests the low is pretty stretched towards the north, almost a trough so could be why.


Lo and behold, 00z GFS adjusts the position of that possible circulation further north, just like you thought:
18z
00z

Wonder if another eddy or low will pop up on the far eastern flank of that trough which extends horizontally off the southern sunny coast? GFS doesn't seem to think so but you never know.

Example.

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#1473540 - 14/10/2018 16:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Another circulation east of the border on stapy 512?

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#1473541 - 14/10/2018 16:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
GFS seems to have relocated the main center towards the northern center, near Fraser Island. I think there were two circulations, one just east of Fraser Island, perhaps more assoiated with the upper level activity, and a stronger one further SE moving towards the coast, which was set to give south SEQ heavy rain but the Fraser Island seems to have become dominant. Although the doppler wind signature does seem better for the southern circulation.

Shift of the rain risk towards the northern end? Heaviest rain has been SS coast and north. GFS stays out to sea, but Access looks to move towards the coast. Regardless of surface low movement the upper activity should keep moving out to sea.

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#1473543 - 14/10/2018 17:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Always tricky to get a low to hug the coast when the momentum is usually with the upper level trough or low which in this case is heading offshore. Would be a different story if it slowed down or stalled but that's not expected to happen.

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#1473544 - 14/10/2018 17:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 75
That rain sitting off the coast.. it's almost as if it's stalled fingers crossed it makes it to us smile

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#1473547 - 14/10/2018 17:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Below is the latest ASCAT pass (satellite wind analysis derived from the effects of winds on the sea's surface) performed at 4:04pm.

I've marked in the two areas where there's localised cyclonic vorticity of the winds. There's some rain contamination of the data but it's enough to generally show the two main areas where it's digging in along the wind convergence zone with the southeastern one being more prominent (at least at the surface over the ocean):




Edited by Ken Kato (14/10/2018 17:44)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1473552 - 14/10/2018 17:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Earthnull map shows it nicely also.

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#1473554 - 14/10/2018 18:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Cool- so is the se bigger circulation heading west?
Fairly clear on the 512 now

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#1473556 - 14/10/2018 18:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
And that chart shows tropical moisture from the NE is completely unable to reach the coast directly, suggesting the potential for any really heavy rain is limited. Satellite suggests heavy convection to the somewhere near the eastern center

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#1473557 - 14/10/2018 18:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Champ

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#1473559 - 14/10/2018 18:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 75
The rain seems to be really tapering off as it approaches us.. frown

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