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#1473561 - 14/10/2018 18:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Showers brought 20.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am. Most of that falling during the early hours of this morning from a showery mass that moved onto the coast between here and Coffs Harbour.
Also surpassed our October monthly average here overnight.

A flood watch for minor flooding remains current for the Bellinger/Kalang and Orara Rivers.

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#1473563 - 14/10/2018 18:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
At 1730 - 25.5S 154.1E.

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#1473565 - 14/10/2018 18:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
some awesome averages of Hmax wave heights from the Gold Coast to the Sunshine of 8 meters. Mooloolaba has the highest wave at 8.5 meters

Possible storms with the rain/showers near the coast tonight. I know probably already been mentioned.

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#1473576 - 14/10/2018 19:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5
Circulation of the low now seems evident on TPW loop
The low complex or system, seems to have reasonable feed into it from the north east


Edited by Flowin (14/10/2018 19:42)
Edit Reason: typo
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Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1473580 - 14/10/2018 19:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
So what are the chances of all that wetness coming inland Somerset way? Looks impressive.

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#1473581 - 14/10/2018 19:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
So what are the chances of all that wetness coming inland Somerset way? Looks impressive.


Not sure about inland penetration but I definitely think that band is going to make it on-shore, but probably very coastal. It's just taking forever. We might see similar bands do the same during tomorrow as well.

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#1473582 - 14/10/2018 19:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Yeah tomorrow's also still remaining a chance for further extensive shower activity but only for those coastal areas which stay south of any low/s.

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#1473584 - 14/10/2018 19:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I did say the blob wouldn't make it to us, but i was hoping i would be wrong. I think this event over for the brisbane area, just the moderate drizzle and light winds.
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1473585 - 14/10/2018 19:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
The possibility of multiple bands of rain in from the sea seems likely. How much inland is at best a guess.

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#1473591 - 14/10/2018 20:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Occasional drizzle in Gatton earlier, calm & cool atm.

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#1473600 - 14/10/2018 21:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
MG4R Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/01/2012
Posts: 224
Loc: Bundaberg
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I did say the blob wouldn't make it to us, but i was hoping i would be wrong. I think this event over for the brisbane area, just the moderate drizzle and light winds.


I donít see how you can say this when the Low is wrapping back onto the coast.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.

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#1473601 - 14/10/2018 21:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: MG4R]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: MG4R
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I did say the blob wouldn't make it to us, but i was hoping i would be wrong. I think this event over for the brisbane area, just the moderate drizzle and light winds.


I donít see how you can say this when the Low is wrapping back onto the coast.


It's been coming all day, just taking a very long time. It's likely falls will limited to the far coastal strip, but still head enough inland for Brisbane to get some decent rain.

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#1473602 - 14/10/2018 21:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
MG4R Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/01/2012
Posts: 224
Loc: Bundaberg
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: MG4R
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I did say the blob wouldn't make it to us, but i was hoping i would be wrong. I think this event over for the brisbane area, just the moderate drizzle and light winds.


I donít see how you can say this when the Low is wrapping back onto the coast.


It's been coming all day, just taking a very long time. It's likely falls will limited to the far coastal strip, but still head enough inland for Brisbane to get some decent rain.

100% agree on this one. I think north Brissy, moreso heading towards Caboolture and due north, will get some very heavy falls tonight and tomorrow morning.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.

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#1473603 - 14/10/2018 21:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
It is looking like Cape Moreton to Beenleigh has the advantage for best rain the region for next few hours.

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#1473604 - 14/10/2018 21:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1473607 - 14/10/2018 21:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Ok I'm confused can someone please explain if there are two lows now or one and where is it/they centred. What is the huge mass off Brisbane. Why is it calm now here in Caloundra. Any thoughts appreciated and thanks in advance.

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#1473610 - 14/10/2018 21:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I have thought that two lows may be occurring for the last few hours. But Radar can be deceiving when the potential centre of one low, or centres or multiple lows are around / beyond the target 128k distance of radar setup.


Edited by Flowin (14/10/2018 21:48)
Edit Reason: typo

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#1473617 - 14/10/2018 22:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Wind is howling again and rainband heading this way.

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#1473619 - 14/10/2018 22:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Appears to be only one circulation on water vapour sat image
https://weather.us/satellite/1555-e-265-s/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play

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#1473624 - 14/10/2018 22:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
sharjay Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 1004
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Wind is howling again and rainband heading this way.

Yep..i think we are in for another drenching tonight...personally i have had enough of the rain and wish it would go inland to the farmers. Wonder if there will be more thunder in it? Had a few rumbles here throughout the day.

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