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#1473138 - 12/10/2018 09:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Same here, steady drizzly rain. Radar scan is not perfectly horizontal, but is angled up (curvature of the earth and maybe other factors such as avoiding ground clutter). The further from radar the higher the radar beam is looking. Also based on how much signal the raindrops bounce back. Big drops reflect well. Small drops poorly. So radar works much better for scanning high thunderstorms with big rain drops than for scanning low showers with drizzly raindrops.

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#1473139 - 12/10/2018 09:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
83 mm here from that storm and as the rain was sideways I suspect the rain gauge missed a fair sum of it. We couldn't see the house over the road for much of a 30 minute period. Plenty of large tree destruction and at home we had the strongest winds since I arrived here a few years back.

Here is the radar run for the cells that formed yesterday for anyone interested. The one that hit here had a 6 hour journey from out near Miles.

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.m...nish=1539264600
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#1473142 - 12/10/2018 09:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 109
Loc: Wolvi
Fair enough Mike. I just find it strange as it's always been very reliable for my location, even in conditions such as these.
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#1473143 - 12/10/2018 09:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, it's a no brainer where the main change stalled overnight. Models have this change remaining slow-moving for the rest of the day before the new upper trough grows some legs and strengthens the convergence between it and the easterlies originating from the Coral Sea. Eventually a little low looks to spin up along the convergence but it seems more and more likely it will remain offshore of SEQ? Still room for change though.

Edit: Actually, the latest GFS run actually swings the low back over SEQ so there's that.

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#1473150 - 12/10/2018 10:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: ColdFront]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 55
Loc: Redlands
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
83 mm here from that storm and as the rain was sideways I suspect the rain gauge missed a fair sum of it. We couldn't see the house over the road for much of a 30 minute period. Plenty of large tree destruction and at home we had the strongest winds since I arrived here a few years back.

Here is the radar run for the cells that formed yesterday for anyone interested. The one that hit here had a 6 hour journey from out near Miles.

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.m...nish=1539264600


70mm in the gauge at the in-laws. Said they lost power several times and the wind was up there. Their weather station only measures current wind speed so no idea what they were.

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#1473156 - 12/10/2018 10:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Some, but not all, locations near the coastal fringe & hinterlands could eventually approach 100mm or even more by the time all is said & done...


Some areas in mid Sunshine Coast are already approaching 100mm from last two days. 50mm last night and 30 previous night near my place. If an ECL forms in the right spot to drag the rain out to sea we might fail to reach 100mm if you start the count from now. Otherwise I would be somewhat surprised if favoured SS Coast hinterland spots fail to break 100mm in the next couple of days.

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#1473157 - 12/10/2018 11:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 88
Loc: noosaville
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Some, but not all, locations near the coastal fringe & hinterlands could eventually approach 100mm or even more by the time all is said & done...


Some areas in mid Sunshine Coast are already approaching 100mm from last two days. 50mm last night and 30 previous night near my place. If an ECL forms in the right spot to drag the rain out to sea we might fail to reach 100mm if you start the count from now. Otherwise I would be somewhat surprised if favoured SS Coast hinterland spots fail to break 100mm in the next couple of days.


Yeah i've cracked 150mm from the last 2 days here in Noosaville, obviously doesn't flood easy right here on the coast but they have had a fair bit up in the hinterland too.

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#1473160 - 12/10/2018 11:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 109
Loc: Wolvi
Well, I have to say I'm just not convinced about the Gympie radar. It's been raining here steadily for a while, we've had about 4mm since 9am and still all but nothing within cooee of here on the radar.
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#1473161 - 12/10/2018 11:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Bone Dry]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 88
Loc: noosaville
Originally Posted By: Bone Dry
Well, I have to say I'm just not convinced about the Gympie radar. It's been raining here steadily for a while, we've had about 4mm since 9am and still all but nothing within cooee of here on the radar.


Yeah i have found these kinda days weird, they always seem to be the same where the atmosphere is completely saturated with moisture and like someone previously mentioned, the radar doesn't pick up small rain drops/ drizzle as well as your typical convective type rain. It actually started last night as i was driving through Gympie and those leftover bands of rain were actually really quite heavy yet it was only green on radar.

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#1473162 - 12/10/2018 11:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Bone Dry]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1487
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: Bone Dry
Well, I have to say I'm just not convinced about the Gympie radar. It's been raining here steadily for a while, we've had about 4mm since 9am and still all but nothing within cooee of here on the radar.
Simply too low or too high to be detected I would assume; was like that last night here also.
That's why I like the Himawari water vapour loop on WZ; certainly worth the $60 a year( $5 a month? - bargain).
Shows a bit more realistically what's going on.
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#1473164 - 12/10/2018 12:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Oops I didn't realise this thread was still going.

Here's a copy & paste from my comments in the day to day thread re the upcoming rainfall:

" Hereís how I see things playing out...

From today (Fri) into the weekend in SE QLD, showers should gradually start becoming more extensive & eventually tend to steadier rain from time to time (the better amounts should be in northern parts at first). At this stage, the more extensive rainfall looks like becoming less extensive by the start of the working week next week but that could still change.

Daytimes will also be very cool under the cloud cover & many places will probably struggle to reach around 20C by the weekend, if not the teens. Daytimes should slowly warm up next week.
Also, IF a small east coast low forms close enough to the coast with enough intensity, it could get windy along the coast on its southern flank.

Rainfall amounts will probably get lower as you go further inland although some areas in the north could get some reasonable amounts.
Some, but not all, locations near the coastal fringe & hinterlands could eventually approach 100mm or even more by the time all is said & done... and this could also extend down onto the northern NSW coast but only if any coastal trough or low digs far enough south.
We have a moist onshore wind flow getting lifted by an approaching upper level trough (aided by a surface trough or small low which may help to focus the rainfall).

BUT if any coastal trough or low is weaker than expected, forms further out to sea or further south than expected, SE QLD wonít get as much rain (or itíll clear much earlier than expected.
On the other hand, if the surface trough or low forms just to our north & hangs around there longer than expected, we could get heavier rain which lasts longer. "

Some of the rainfall on the EC map below has already fallen (the amounts start from 10pm last night):



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#1473166 - 12/10/2018 12:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1212
Loc: Toowoomba
One thing I like about the southern states having daylight saving is we get some of the Bureau's updates an hour earlier up here. The just updated 4-day forecast charts seem to show the little low hugging the coast near Brisbane, or that what it looks like with my deteriorating eyesight.
cheers


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (12/10/2018 12:42)

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#1473170 - 12/10/2018 13:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
I wander if atmospheric profile could make it harder for the radar to detect the rain. Under strong inversions the radar beam is deflected towards the ground and can show lots of ground clutter. Generally rainy conditions are opposite (but closer to average) to an inversion and the beam may be deflected higher than normal.

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#1473172 - 12/10/2018 13:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3527
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
And so it begins, Stapy filling up, no repeat of yesterday thank you.
See how rain totals stack up to forecasts.
Either way, its gonabe wet wet wet.
Dark & gloomy all morning here with a nice Easterly breeze.

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#1473180 - 12/10/2018 14:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1179
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Aah lovely wind and hail free rain 😍
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Jimbour rain: 2018-320.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-160

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1473181 - 12/10/2018 15:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1819
Loc: Kingaroy
30 to 60mm of rain predicted for Kingaroy today, only a few mm so far, be interesting to see if the forecast totals eventuate.

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#1473183 - 12/10/2018 15:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 109
Loc: Wolvi
Could be a possibility Mike. I read the following link;

Radar Stuff

Makes sense to me, I guess it depends on the atmospheric profile.
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#1473185 - 12/10/2018 15:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Flood watch issued

Quote:
Initial Flood Watch for catchments between Gladstone and the Sunshine Coast including the Dawson River catchment
Issued at 11:08 am EST on Friday 12 October 2018

Flood Watch Number: 1

Minor flooding is possible across the Flood Watch area during the weekend.

A significant rainfall situation is forecast to begin on Friday evening and continue during Saturday across the flood watch area. Showers and thunderstorms tending to rain areas are likely.

Catchment conditions are generally dry across the Watch area after a prolonged period of little rainfall which is expected to act as a buffer to significant runoff.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to begin across inland areas, including the Don, Dee and Upper Burnett River catchments from Friday evening and then extend further east to the coast during Saturday.

Minor flooding is possible across the Flood Watch area and isolated heavier rainfall may lead to localised flooding. As the northern and southern extents of the flood watch are expected to receive lower rainfall totals significant river level rises in these areas is less likely.

Rainfall totals and river level rises are expected to be less than those experienced in the Wide Bay catchments in October 2017.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Dawson and Don Rivers
Calliope River
Boyne River
Baffle Creek
Kolan River
Burnett River
Burrum and Cherwell Rivers
Mary River
Noosa River
Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks


Catchments for some of the area may be dry, but catchments on the Sunshine coast are saturated with creeks brown and flowing and many flood gauges detecting some rises.

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#1473188 - 12/10/2018 16:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
So doppler is showing a definite circulation inland from Rainbow Beach. Is this the beginnings of an ECL?
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1473189 - 12/10/2018 16:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Some really significant rainfall rates at Rainbow Beach at the moment too!
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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