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#1473190 - 12/10/2018 16:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3440
Loc: Buderim
Latest GFS has heavy rain tonight near Gympie and SS Coast, moving offshore, but coming back onshore with a weak low towards the Gold Coast. Accumulated rain up over 200mm for GC, and 100 in a strip from Sunshine coast through Brisbane and to Gold Coast.

The upper level trough has really motored along from central Australia, but GFS seems to slow it near SEQ. Maybe if it slows a bit later than expected it could all push out to sea quite quickly. Slows a bit more and it could get nasty.

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#1473193 - 12/10/2018 16:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1831
Loc: Kingaroy
What's the upper trough doing at the moment? Is it coming in too quickly or something, the way it's looking, the predicted 30 to 60mm is going to be way off unless something changes.

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#1473195 - 12/10/2018 16:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BeenAround Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 118
Loc: Bundamba, Ipswich, QLD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIp5Mc36pYI

From the cell yesterday afternoon.

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#1473197 - 12/10/2018 17:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Himawari Sat pic & water vapour look very healthy. Steady rain now.

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#1473200 - 12/10/2018 17:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
On radar it appears the rain headin towards the SE is hittin a barrier line that runs NE trough the GC sea way, through Hinze dam and Springbrook to the SW and i'm just south of that line, BUGGA
DD
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#1473201 - 12/10/2018 17:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: BeenAround]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 66
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Originally Posted By: BeenAround
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIp5Mc36pYI

From the cell yesterday afternoon.


The school he goes past is Cloyna, heading south on the road from Gayndah to Murgon. Took me a while to work it out. It's about 35k from Murgon to Tansey.

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#1473202 - 12/10/2018 17:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2250
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The upper trough is moving very fast, but don't be fooled by all the coastal rain tracking offshore. There's a lot of inland redevelopment of storms and rain in a line north of Roma. That will track east over the next several hours.

GFS and EC are onboard for an ECL dumping 100-200+ mm rain along the coast, but GFS moves it further inland into the border region whereas EC and Access-G are more coastal and affect far SE corner and NE NSW a lot more. Access-R isn't interested, but does have a slight low that tries to form. I'd say we have a good shot at an ECL forming but this set-up is complicated and the formation and movement of the low will be critical to any rainfall amounts in SEQ.


Edited by Nature's Fury (12/10/2018 17:36)

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#1473203 - 12/10/2018 17:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Brett Guy Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5119
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?

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#1473204 - 12/10/2018 17:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2250
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Supercell has formed south-west of Emerald. Looks like a repeat of yesterday's WBB action just further north this time. This really has been an incredible and long-lasting weather event for eastern Queensland with more still to come.

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#1473205 - 12/10/2018 17:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Got a pretty decent smokehaze out here atm while raining, seems some D.Head has decided to light a fire, not happy having to smell the bastard smoke. Calm atm, so its not moving.

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#1473206 - 12/10/2018 17:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
Nature's Fury Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2250
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?


BOM have confirmed one at Tansey. There are unconfirmed reports of two more (Coolabunia and Gympie). It looks like most of these have surfaced because of high-quality storm chaser footage. You have to wonder how many tornadoes go unreported because they weren't recorded.

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#1473207 - 12/10/2018 17:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3835
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Saw a study a while back which showed that frequency of tornadoes per unit area in 50km boxes which covered the capital cities in Australia was typically around 10 times that in surrounding rural areas, which implies (unless you think that tornadoes are particularly attracted to cities) that at least 90% of rural tornadoes were unreported at that time. It's probably improved a bit in recent years.

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#1473209 - 12/10/2018 17:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Brett Guy Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5119
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?


BOM have confirmed one at Tansey. There are unconfirmed reports of two more (Coolabunia and Gympie). It looks like most of these have surfaced because of high-quality storm chaser footage. You have to wonder how many tornadoes go unreported because they weren't recorded.


Cheers. And yep. I would imagine many go unreported. It's actually ridiculous how many people think we don't get tornadoes here or only get them because of.....

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#1473210 - 12/10/2018 17:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Nature's Fury Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2250
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Saw a study a while back which showed that frequency of tornadoes per unit area in 50km boxes which covered the capital cities in Australia was typically around 10 times that in surrounding rural areas, which implies (unless you think that tornadoes are particularly attracted to cities) that at least 90% of rural tornadoes were unreported at that time. It's probably improved a bit in recent years.


Any chance you remember the title? It sounds like a good study to read if possible.


Edited by Nature's Fury (12/10/2018 17:55)

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#1473211 - 12/10/2018 17:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3440
Loc: Buderim
Oooh Emerald has a doppler and the storm just south seems to have a pretty brutal tight velocity couplet.

Will be interesting to see how the patch of storms out there progresses through the evening.

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#1473212 - 12/10/2018 17:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Had a chat with my oldies in Scarness just then, they say hearing a huge freight train noise for a couple minutes around 9pm last night, similar to a water spout that came on land near their place 5 years ago. Yea, a lot dont get reported but last nights noisemaker didnt touch down luckily.

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#1473214 - 12/10/2018 18:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1331
Loc: toowoomba
Strong winds up here and it's bl**dy cold 12C with an apparent temp of 4C.This is October right.

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#1473215 - 12/10/2018 18:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
I'm rugged up like a Tasmanian atm sitting under patio with the dog enjoying the rain, 15C, cold! Ducks having a good time!
In contrast, one of my sons is working in Jabiru, shirtless, 36C & sweating his bum off.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (12/10/2018 18:05)

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#1473216 - 12/10/2018 18:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Nature's Fury Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2250
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Oooh Emerald has a doppler and the storm just south seems to have a pretty brutal tight velocity couplet.

Will be interesting to see how the patch of storms out there progresses through the evening.


Another beast just near Moura as well but radar coverage is not as good to watch this one.

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#1473217 - 12/10/2018 18:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: petethemoskeet]
DNO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/02/2003
Posts: 497
Loc: Ellesmere, Qld
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Strong winds up here and it's bl**dy cold 12C with an apparent temp of 4C.This is October right.


Yep I just lit the fireplace up. confused

13.5mm here since 9am. 34mm yesterday to 9am

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