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#1306027 - 07/02/2015 07:09 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
No worries Homeboy.

Mostly cloudy here this morning but the StratoCu has that look about it that suggests to me that it will burn off by late morning, to a sunny day with light to moderate NE winds. smile
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#1306061 - 07/02/2015 09:30 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10184
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Homey, enjoy your drive via Oberon, a very pleasant and scenic way to head home. smile

Sorry I missed your question re that road, Misty is correct, all tar. A bit slower than the Hume but a pleasant day drive.

Yes I am cooling the house at night and shutting it off behind curtains in the day. It makes for a much more pleasant temp in the house. In about a month or 6 weeks I won't bother closing the curtains of a day time. The next step is trying to minimise heat loss at night and maximise sunshine into the house of a day. A regularly changing bit of OCD on my part all year round. smile

GFS pulls the NSW heat back more than EC and access next week. Consistently indicating temps 1 or 2 degrees cooler than EC/Bom for around here. Further west different of course.

Brilliant sunny day (as usual) out here, forecast 29 but we had a nice cool 10 or maybe slightly less this morning. Our nights will warm to about 13 or 14 most nights next week. Still pretty pleasant. smile

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#1306093 - 07/02/2015 10:47 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Along with the Goulburn to Oberon Rd (Abercrombie Rd I think it's called), I would recommend going through Lithgow and onto Bells Line of Road, to Richmond and home to Dural, rather than the mainstream Great Western Hwy. I have been both ways and Bells LOR is much nicer and more scenic. I find the GW Hwy quite boring because of busy traffic, not an awful lot of scenery and lots of traffic lights.

Yeah DM the heat could be on next week, depending on what model is correct.

The cloud actually looks like it is thickening rather than clearing. I think it will be one of those days that stay cloudy and calm all day. There probably won't be much of a seabreeze unless the temp rises above the water temp of 25-26C. Might be a good afternoon for a surf in the calm conditions and warm water. smile
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#1306139 - 07/02/2015 13:42 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Cloud has mostly cleared to the east now, still a lot to the west. I'm heading to the beach atm and am so keen for a swim and a surf in the water. Port Kembla buoy water temp is 25.4C.

If the surf is good enough, I could stay in the water all afternoon without getting cold. Anything under 23C and I start feeling cold after a few hours. Anything under 20C and it takes about half an hour before getting too cold. 25C though is just beautiful!!
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#1306203 - 07/02/2015 17:33 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1128
Loc: Killara
33c is now the forecast maximum for Obs Hill tomorrow. Finally something resembling summer is back

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#1306229 - 07/02/2015 18:30 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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The water was actually soooo warm today. Like amazingly warm!! I don't think I have felt the ocean this warm in this area before. It only felt a little cooler than when I was up at the Gold Coast in January 2012.

Bring on tomorrow- we have 33C for Obs Hill (as jimi pointed out) and a top of 29C for Wollongong. The bad news is that a scumtherly is now due in for Monday.

Storm potential from Wednesday onwards (until the end of the model which is Sunday). Unfortunately, the shear will be weak as piss and unfavourable. Next weekend sees the shear improve a bit. So I guess we'll see how things pan out. smile
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#1306275 - 07/02/2015 20:29 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
upper level disturbance Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2001
Posts: 1182
Loc: Canberra
Looks like a severe storm just went through north of Cooma. That was a surprise.

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#1306285 - 07/02/2015 21:06 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Indeed it was a surprise!! Didn't even now anything was happening until you mentioned it.

Looks like a nasty cell, which may have formed on some sort of convergence line. Looks like Homer at Kalkite largely missed out on the action. Anyway looks like the cell is moving along the Tinderries, possibly heading towards Braidwood. Also wouldn't surprise me if storm magnet Batemans Bay gets a taste of the action.


That area (Jindabyne, Berridale, Dalgety) seems to turn some good night time storms compared to other areas. Not quite sure why.

SM.
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#1306459 - 08/02/2015 10:12 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5023
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Brilliant blue skies after a run of cloudy to overcast mornings. Not much wind - light Westerlies. I would normally expect the sea breeze to get up early with so little resistance, but the BOM thinks otherwise.

The forecast for the coming week is not actually that warm now that the cool spell has ended. Max temps after today are forecast to be average or slightly above, with average to slightly warm minima.


Edited by Steve777 (08/02/2015 10:13)
Edit Reason: Clarification

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#1306479 - 08/02/2015 10:42 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
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Yes you would normally expect the seabreeze to be up and running now, but the water is very warm. When you think of the basic principles of wind on the coast, the wind comes from the cooler source out of land and water when there is little resistance. Usually it would be up by 9am because the land is warmer than the water by then.

Today however, the water temps are hovering around 25-26C and the temp is 24 to 27C across the Sydney basin, so the seabreeze can't form until the western suburbs warm above about 26C. Because right now the coolest temp is the land (24C vs 25-26C). Hence, the westerly from the western suburbs yous are getting atm.

We should see a seabreeze (rather than a land breeze) as soon as things warm up. smile Could get fairly breezy by mid arvo when the western suburbs have warmed up to the low to mid 30s. smile

That's my take on the situation. Of course I'm pretty inexperienced compared to many of you guys so I could be wrong.


Edited by Sea-Mist (08/02/2015 10:46)
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#1306483 - 08/02/2015 10:58 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
It's so nice and humid today. Already on 28C and virtually no wind atm. Ahhh back to normal summer. smile
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#1306499 - 08/02/2015 12:07 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5023
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here are the final numbers for selected Sydney sites for the recent 'cold' spell (January 26 to February 6):

Code:
Airport:    17.9 (-1.7); 23.4 (-3.5); 20.7 (-2.6)
Bankstown:  16.1 (-2.1); 24.8 (-3.3); 20.4 (-2.7)
Penrith:    16.4 (-2.1); 25.1 (-5.0); 20.7 (-3.6)  
Obs Hill:   17.7 (-2.0); 24.4 (-2.1); 21.0 (-2.1)


Averages used are 1981-2010 for stations with records longer than 30 years.

So, two to four degrees below average for 12 days, pretty unusual.

It was less pronounced at OH where temperatures were close to average most days after the heavy rain stopped and we got several hours of sun most days after that. Nights were still cool, though.

On the other hand, Penrith and I expect most of the outer West had below average maxima for 12 consecutive days.

P.S. just breaking 30 at Sydney sites for the first time in a fortnight, including OH. The seabreeze has started, so coastal sites won't get much warmer.

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#1306626 - 08/02/2015 20:54 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
What a spectacular day. We had brilliant clear skies until the early afternoon and temp reached 30C here and 27C on the coast with only a light seabreeze. This was all topped off by a beautiful sunset. Unfortunately I was too busy playing cricket with my mates to take pics!!

Loving the warm sea temps because first of all it's very pleasant to swim and because the seabreeze just "switches off" at about 25-26C, making for a brilliant evening for a barbeque.

25C and no wind across the Illawarra. Honestly could not ask for more on a summer's evening! smile

Cheers for the stats Steve. The information you dig up is always interesting.
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#1306683 - 09/02/2015 08:43 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1128
Loc: Killara
Muggy night, minimum of 22.7C at Obs Hill but it felt a lot warmer inside a top floor apartment (I wish we were one floor lower)!

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#1306721 - 09/02/2015 15:11 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1128
Loc: Killara
I'm surprised that temps are so warm with 8/8ths cloud cover, occasional drizzle and moderate S-SE winds. It all feels very strange.

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#1306722 - 09/02/2015 15:23 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
I've gotta agree, yeah it feels quite weird to be so muggy and warm under southerlies and cloud cover. There is a fair bit of drizzle hanging around Bellambi now and it's still stubbornly on 23C. Must be owing to the warm SST's again.

We dropped to a low of 19C at Albion Park, before the southerly warmed the temp up to 22C at around 2am and the temp hasn't dropped below 21C since the arrival of the change.
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#1306754 - 09/02/2015 19:19 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5023
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I drove up to Newcastle today. It was overcast with light to moderate Southerlies when I left around 10:15. There were light showers on the F1 between about Berowra and the Budgewoi exit, with a few patches of heavier rain. Further North the road was dry and it started to clear.

Newcastle was sunny, warm and very muggy with light winds and scattered cloud.

I left Newcastle around 5:00pm and the cloud closed in soon after I got on the M1. It was overcast South from about Mt Sugarloaf. The higher parts of the M1 were wet but I only saw a couple of patches of drizzle and very light rain. On the North Shore it looked very dark to the West but nothing seems to have come of it.

As I arrived home there were a few patches of blue sky to the asouth.


Edited by Steve777 (09/02/2015 19:24)
Edit Reason: Typo

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#1306765 - 09/02/2015 20:37 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
If you had of driven down to the Gong, you would have been "welcomed" with stratus and areas of drizzle.

Sounds like you had a pretty good day. smile Did you go for a swim up there? I imagine the water would be even warmer up there than here.

Anyway it has been drizzling here for probably the better part of two hours now.

Also, do you guys think this week's thunderstorm potential from Wednesday until Sunday is worthy of a thread? I was just looking and it seems like a pretty marginal event (according to my limited experience) coming up according to models.
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#1306768 - 09/02/2015 21:14 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5023
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I was visting family in Mayfield so didn't go near the water.

I saw 'thunderstorms' in the Sydney forecast for Thursday in yesterday's forecast but the BOM has taken them off the menu.

GFS shows some patches of heavy rain later in the week for parts of the coast and tableland. Access doesn't show much. Even so, it does look like a warm, humid, unstable pattern coming up.

Might be worth waiting a day or so to see how it develops but I am not an expert.

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#1306770 - 09/02/2015 21:37 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - July 2006 to December 2018 [Archive] [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
Ah okay, I just thought you went on a leisurely drive to Newy to fill up the day, just like you go out to Richmond and surrounds sometimes. smile

I noticed there were actually storms for many districts for Thursday and I think Friday. Now it's all possible showers. I reckon BoM are being too conservative IMO.

Yeah I think wait for a day or so and maybe get an stormchasers perspective too.

The showers are still streaming in from the SSE as I speak.
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