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#1473218 - 12/10/2018 18:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Must be quite windy at higher levels, Toowoomba 900m windy 43kph yet here at 180m its calm.

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#1473224 - 12/10/2018 18:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1207
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Blowing its ring out here with sideways drizzle and a temp of 13C. Had some good rain earlier this arvo with 13mm in the gauge.

Drove through coolabunia today and its hard to say whether it was hit by extreme straight line winds or a tornado. Alot of trees twisted off half way up the trunk but also lots of big gums uprooted and all lying the same way. Either way the place is a mess, looks like a bomb went off. Didn't stop for photos as thers still SES, council and tree loppers everywhere. Probably gonna be years until the place is back to normal again frown
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1473227 - 12/10/2018 18:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1176
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
This is my 2nd supercell storm. Both times you watch the wall cloud coming at you then you hear that roar and you know it's coming. Then it's just full whiteout conditions, the rain is upside down and going up LOL. The 2007 Australia Day storm in Dalby had a tornado in it as well and blew rail carriages off the track. I'm very thankful it wasn't any worse here, to see the images of the horses in Nanango hit by the larger hail, I'd be devastated to see my horses like that and know their owners were too. Some moron on FB commented the owners didn't care because they didn't put them undercover. If you put horses in a stable/tin roof type shed in that storm they'd have likely killed themselves freaking out. The noise on the roof was indescribable. Jimbour station recorded 110km/h wind and there is no damage that end of Jimbour. Our weather station is in a ball so nothing recorded unfortunately but I'd love to know what it got to here. 150 perhaps? Couldn't see more than about 20m from the door. Had around 15-20mm today I think looking at the radars, nice steady rain. Instant puddles, it's glorious considering how bad we were. Could have passed on the supercell however the dams are full and the paddocks are cleared of dung build up from the dry so there are definite bonuses as well grin. Thankyou to everyone who thought of me and I'm thinking of those in the worse hit areas. Please all stay safe this storm season, it's shaping up to be a ripper!!!!
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-320.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-144

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1473228 - 12/10/2018 19:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 578
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Managed a couple of Captures of that very Hazardous Storm that pass through the Tweed region (Weds 10th) arvo/eve. .
It was a very Dark & Ominous looking cell as we viewed it from Danger Point passing by our South.
Was charged with some good Solid amperage & some close'ish Blinding CG's - Awesome feeling I haven't experienced for some time - Must Storm Chase more often again !

This on arrival as the frontline made the Ocean. Distant Lightning Smashing near Byron - approx 7pm qld time


7:15pm. Insane CG with Tendrils


7:30pm. Stunning Amperage
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Weather or not ?

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#1473231 - 12/10/2018 19:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 286
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Awesome PB, the power of nature is mind blowing.
(politically corrected) DD


Edited by DDstorm (12/10/2018 19:18)
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We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1473234 - 12/10/2018 19:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: PlumbBob]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 109
Loc: Wolvi
That top pics a peach. Looks like the end of the world.
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Guaranteed weather forecast for tonight: Dark.

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#1473235 - 12/10/2018 19:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
I should've also mentioned in my previous post that it doesn't have to be a single ECL that forms - there can often be small multiple centres embedded along a trough or convergence zone. These can make the forecasting of the heavier rain areas and stronger winds pretty tricky as the individual centres wobble around.

Nice profiles near the coast through tonight and into tomorrow with saturated profiles and good backing winds with height/upslide helping to enhance the rainfall.


P.S. love those shots PlumbBob.
And thanks for that report Lani.


Edited by Ken Kato (12/10/2018 19:52)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1473238 - 12/10/2018 19:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3305
Loc: Buderim
Tin Can Bay 93mm, Noosa Heads 70mm since 9am.

edit

And satellite reveals a low pressure near Roma. Radar and GFS nowcast agree. GFS forecasts it to wash out in the next 6 hours, but I think its looking like it has some potential on satellite.


Edited by Mike Hauber (12/10/2018 20:02)

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#1473239 - 12/10/2018 20:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Probably almost time for the BoM to issue a STW for that slow moving cell on the southern end of Fraser Island I think...then again, there are no lightning strikes recorded from it...so technically, it's not a storm?

Definitely ramped up here in the last hour or so.

edit: Probably weakening going by that latest frame anyway.

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#1473240 - 12/10/2018 20:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
Epic shots Plumbob well done

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#1473241 - 12/10/2018 20:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?


BOM have confirmed one at Tansey. There are unconfirmed reports of two more (Coolabunia and Gympie). It looks like most of these have surfaced because of high-quality storm chaser footage. You have to wonder how many tornadoes go unreported because they weren't recorded.


Cheers. And yep. I would imagine many go unreported. It's actually ridiculous how many people think we don't get tornadoes here or only get them because of.....



I would say that's because we don't have the setup they have in the USA to produce tornadoes, so people that are not into weather think it wont happen here.

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#1473242 - 12/10/2018 20:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?



I'm keen to know as well as I haven't seen one photo of a funnel coming from the clouds. All the video footage I have seen, have been from very strong winds. Has the BOM rated the tornado on the fujitsu scale?

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#1473244 - 12/10/2018 20:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Mega]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 109
Loc: Wolvi
I've been watching that. For all money it's trying to come my way, we'll see.
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Guaranteed weather forecast for tonight: Dark.

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#1473246 - 12/10/2018 20:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 109
Loc: Wolvi
To be honest, the only thing I'm concerned about at the moment is the crap warning that's just been issued. I mean, seriously, could that get any more approximate.
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Guaranteed weather forecast for tonight: Dark.

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#1473248 - 12/10/2018 20:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10440
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A Flood Watch has also been issued for a couple of rivers along the NENSW coast:
Quote:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.
Initial Flood Watch for the New South Wales Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast
Issued at 1:20 pm EDT on Friday 12 October 2018
Flood Watch Number: 1
Widespread rainfall over the New South Wales Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast has the potential to cause riverine flooding from Sunday onwards.
A low pressure trough over parts of the northeast of New South Wales may potentially bring moderate to heavy falls over the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast over the weekend and early next week.
The weather system is likely to bring intense rainfall and has the potential to cause riverine flooding from Sunday onwards.
Catchments likely to be affected include:

Wilsons River, minor flooding
Orara River, minor flooding
Bellinger and Kalang Rivers, minor flooding

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/flood/floodwatch1.shtml

5.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. Occasional, passing showers today bringing 8.6mm since 9am. Looks like the showery weather will continue over the next few days.

Awesome pics PlumbBob.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1473255 - 12/10/2018 21:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1043
Loc: Warwick, QLD
A nice 25mm here over the past 24 hours. We are almost at average for the month of October! First time in a year and a half we will be above normal. Good stuff! More to come shortly.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1473259 - 12/10/2018 22:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Saw a study a while back which showed that frequency of tornadoes per unit area in 50km boxes which covered the capital cities in Australia was typically around 10 times that in surrounding rural areas, which implies (unless you think that tornadoes are particularly attracted to cities) that at least 90% of rural tornadoes were unreported at that time. It's probably improved a bit in recent years.


Any chance you remember the title? It sounds like a good study to read if possible.


Will look it up on Monday.

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#1473263 - 12/10/2018 22:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I should've also mentioned in my previous post that it doesn't have to be a single ECL that forms - there can often be small multiple centres embedded along a trough or convergence zone.


There looks to be one such centre out near Proston on radar? Doppler seems to support it.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473265 - 12/10/2018 22:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
DNO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/02/2003
Posts: 496
Loc: Ellesmere, Qld
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
What's the upper trough doing at the moment? Is it coming in too quickly or something, the way it's looking, the predicted 30 to 60mm is going to be way off unless something changes.


Looking like we will get to at least 30mm before it finishes here tonight Chris. I was up to 21mm at about 5pm & been raining nicely since then. smile

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#1473269 - 12/10/2018 23:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1818
Loc: Kingaroy
From the BOM

IDQ21035
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Cherbourg and parts of South Burnett Council Areas.

Issued at 9:38 pm Friday, 12 October 2018.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 9:30 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the area northwest of Lake Boondooma. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Proston, Boondooma and Lake Boondooma by 10:05 pm and the area northwest of Kingaroy, the area northwest of Murgon and the area northeast of Lake Boondooma by 10:35 pm.
Damaging winds are likely.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 10:40 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, Wide Bay and Burnett and parts of the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, Central Coast and Whitsundays, Central Highlands and Coalfields, Capricornia, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and Southeast Coast districts.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

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