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#1473254 - 12/10/2018 21:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18723
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
For the random observer, this thread has turned into a joke.



Yeah because we've got a guy who pushes for warmth and a guy who pushes for cold.


I don't think so. I think we have a guy that pushes for warm and a guy that gets frustrated at his continued contradiction.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


If you exclude the wet months of October and March you can get a period that is dry.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


I see no cherry picking. I do see someone who doesn't like what the data shows and is making flimsy excuses to try and ignore it.


...and those two quotes are from the exact same post. Not so well reasoned. I put up a rather lengthy post but opted to delete it as I doubt it would matter to be honest. People see what they want to see.

Chris Stumer posted up last year that one of the world's major climate authorities called a La Nina and BoM stated it was very close but not quite at the threshold and yet last October's near record rainfall was dismissed out of hand by Mike as LaNina pattern related and now this current event which is producing rainfall well above his own decile deficient Spring map is being attributed to El Nino.

I fully understand why Kino is getting angry.

Here's a thought. Perhaps the rains last October were a direct result of a struggling Cold event and those external influences were the reason the other months were dry? Of course not, because it does not support the narrative .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473256 - 12/10/2018 22:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18723
Loc: The Beach.
...and before the reply comes back that the reference to October and March was "just an example" this is exactly what was used to make a case against a developing La Nina last year.

The past few years there have clearly been forces external to ENSO affecting our climate.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473266 - 12/10/2018 22:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 243
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
For the random observer, this thread has turned into a joke.



Yeah because we've got a guy who pushes for warmth and a guy who pushes for cold.


I don't think so. I think we have a guy that pushes for warm and a guy that gets frustrated at his continued contradiction.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


If you exclude the wet months of October and March you can get a period that is dry.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


I see no cherry picking. I do see someone who doesn't like what the data shows and is making flimsy excuses to try and ignore it.


...and those two quotes are from the exact same post. Not so well reasoned.


I think the trouble is that many probably no longer follow the detail of the argument that closely...from sheer exhaustion at the tone it's usually conducted in....and have no way really of knowing whether the point you make does accurately reflect the wider comment that was being made by MH at the time or not.

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#1473268 - 12/10/2018 23:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18723
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: snowbooby


I think the trouble is that many probably no longer follow the detail of the argument that closely


I guess that "probably" depends on individual ability to recollect.

Some still do because the details were refreshed when the current rainfall was linked to ElNino (synonymous with drier than average Spring conditions in Eastern Australia according to Mike's own decile maps) by the very same individual that trashed the notion of a developing cold event being responsible for one of the wettest Octobers on record last year. It has been raised by others excluding Kino and myself very recently .

2017 7 6.51
2017 8 3.50
2017 9 6.16
2017 10 10.64
2017 11 10.40

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473272 - 12/10/2018 23:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18723
Loc: The Beach.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473275 - 12/10/2018 23:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2837
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I push for cold? Yeah ok, when did I forecast a La Niña and an then an El Niño eventuate? Yet those love to lecture from their lofty intellectual ivory towers on “science and observations....and speaking another language” and then don’t hold themselves accountable for that failure. They excuse it and justify it.

They regularly cherry pick data, insult anyone who dares confront that method and then post more googly-gook to suck the masses in. And when someone confronts that they attack their intellect, call them dumb or that they can’t read and to try again etc.

They hold their data up as some sort of deity; yet that data is grossly corrupted, manipulated, homogenised - call it whatever.

Quote:
Data sparsity is a real problem. The dataset starts in 1850 but for just over two years at the start of the record the only land-based data for the entire Southern Hemisphere came from a single observation station in Indonesia. At the end of five years just three stations reported data in that hemisphere. Global averages are calculated from the averages for each of the two hemispheres, so these few stations have a large influence on what’s supposedly “global”. Related to the amount of data is the percentage of the world (or hemisphere) that the data covers. According to the method of calculating coverage for the dataset, 50% global coverage wasn’t reached until 1906 and 50% of the Southern Hemisphere wasn’t reached until about 1950.

In May 1861 global coverage was a mere 12% – that’s less than one-eighth. In much of the 1860s and 1870s most of the supposedly global coverage was from Europe and its trade sea routes and ports, covering only about 13% of the Earth’s surface. To calculate averages from this data and refer to them as “global averages” is stretching credulity.

Another important finding of this audit is that many temperatures have been incorrectly adjusted. The adjustment of data aims to create a temperature record that would have resulted if the current observation stations and equipment had always measured the local temperature. Adjustments are typically made when station is relocated or its instruments or their housing replaced.

The typical method of adjusting data is to alter all previous values by the same amount. Applying this to situations that changed gradually (such as a growing city increasingly distorting the true temperature) is very wrong and it leaves the earlier data adjusted by more than it should have been. Observation stations might be relocated multiple times and with all previous data adjusted each time the very earliest data might be far below its correct value and the complete data record show an exaggerated warming trend.


Hence why they use a dataset of the last 30 years. Far too small to determine a long term trend.

Now - how is this relevant? Well because if the so-called climate models have been fed rubbish, their results are rubbish (as shown last year).

Quote:
The overall conclusion (see chapter 10) is that the data is not fit for global studies. Data prior to 1950 suffers from poor coverage and very likely multiple incorrect adjustments of station data. Data since that year has better coverage but still has the problem of data adjustments and a host of other issues mentioned in the audit.

Calculating the correct temperatures would require a huge amount of detailed data, time and effort, which is beyond the scope of this audit and perhaps even impossible. The primary conclusion of the audit is however that the dataset shows exaggerated warming and that global averages are far less certain than have been claimed.

One implication of the audit is that climate models have been tuned to match incorrect data, which would render incorrect their predictions of future temperatures and [redacted to avoid that subject]


All this is from a peer-reviewed paper. An Australian paper.

https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/52041/

If that main dataset is so corrupted, how can the output be trusted?

Quote:
Main points:

- The Hadley data is one of the most cited, most important databases for climate modeling, and thus for policies involving billions of dollars.
- McLean found freakishly improbable data, and systematic adjustment errors , large gaps where there is no data, location errors, Fahrenheit temperatures reported as Celsius, and spelling errors.
- Almost no quality control checks have been done: outliers that are obvious mistakes have not been corrected – one town in Columbia spent three months in 1978 at an average daily temperature of over 80 degrees C. One town in Romania stepped out from summer in 1953 straight into a month of Spring at minus 46°C. These are supposedly “average” temperatures for a full month at a time. St Kitts, a Caribbean island, was recorded at 0°C for a whole month, and twice!
- Temperatures for the entire Southern Hemisphere in 1850 and for the next three years are calculated from just one site in Indonesia and some random ships.
- Sea surface temperatures represent 70% of the Earth’s surface, but some measurements come from ships which are logged at locations 100km inland. Others are in harbors which are hardly representative of the open ocean.
- When a thermometer is relocated to a new site, the adjustment assumes that the old site was always built up and “heated” by concrete and buildings. In reality, the artificial warming probably crept in slowly. By correcting for buildings that likely didn’t exist in 1880, old records are artificially cooled. Adjustments for a few site changes can create a whole century of artificial warming trends.

Details of the worst outliers
- For April, June and July of 1978 Apto Uto (Colombia, ID:800890) had an average monthly temperature of 81.5°C, 83.4°C and 83.4°C respectively.
The monthly mean temperature in September 1953 at Paltinis, Romania is reported as -46.4 °C (in other years the September average was about 11.5°C).
- At Golden Rock Airport, on the island of St Kitts in the Caribbean, mean monthly temperatures for December in 1981 and 1984 are reported as 0.0°C. But from 1971 to 1990 the average in all the other years was 26.0°C.

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#1473286 - 13/10/2018 03:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3440
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

Some still do because the details were refreshed when the current rainfall was linked to ElNino (synonymous with drier than average Spring conditions in Eastern Australia according to Mike's own decile maps) by the very same individual that trashed the notion of a developing cold event being responsible for one of the wettest Octobers on record last year. It has been raised by others excluding Kino and myself very recently .



I never trashed the notion of the developing cold event being responsible for the wettest october on record.

It is the continuous lies and exaggerations by Kino and Coldfront about what I have said in the past that I think is the biggest problem in this thread.

I clearly remember when the October event occurred that it had a strong La Nina like signature with a strong trade wind surge across the Pacific linked to a strong NE feed directly onto the East Australia Coast. One of my issues later in the year was that this pattern did not recur with frequent westerly anomalies in the far west Pacific and the easterly feed interrupted by significant low pressure anomalies out near Fiji.

I also pointed out numerous times that ENSO impact should be judged on more than event. Frequently various commentators, especially Kino would raise individual rain events as being proof of La Nina. My position is that an ENSO event should be judged over a more significant period of time, at least 3 months, preferably six months, and at all stages of last years event 3-6 month charts showed pretty much average rainfall.

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#1473298 - 13/10/2018 08:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 722
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Oh kino. 🙄

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#1473299 - 13/10/2018 08:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18723
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


I never trashed the notion of the developing cold event being responsible for the wettest october on record.



From 2017 ENSO thread


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Interesting forecast for eastern Queensland over coming days. Whether or not we reach "official" La Nina status is purely academic . The atmosphere it would seem is responding to the cooling that has occurred along the equator the past several weeks. This is reflected strongly in the surge in SOI values for the 90 day centre to above La Nina fresholds. No surprise then that some international forecasters are calling it "likely".

Locally we are already sitting on record October rainfall after a prolonged dry .Hopefully the forecast holds and the rest of Eastern Qld can get a good drenching too.


La Nina atmosphere + cool nino regions means that the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks are likely to hold the atmospheric pattern for a period of several months. La nina atmospehre + neutral ocean = rain now, but no guarantee of how long the atmospheric pattern will hold.

Recent wet has been much stronger along the coast, but a mixed bag west of the ranges - Southern Qld doing well, but central Qld and much of NSW missing out. Normal ENSO impact is strong west of the ranges and weaker east of the range.



Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere oceans continue to cool with a cold Humbolt feeding colder water into ENSO zones.





Looks like most of the southern hemisphere oceans have been warming to me. Four week change found at link is similar.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Again, wrong.



My bad for failing to realise white was cooling instead of neutral when I first looked at the image. Still areas of warming look pretty close to areas of cooling for SH to me.


Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Last 30 days:




Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The last strong westerly wind forecast I commented on was not nearly as strong as forecast. I don't think it had the same level of model agreement, and did not have MJO support. It was still enough to almost totally wipe out the cool tongue within the space of about two weeks.


If this is "totally wiped out" then huh?

The issue I have is that the Nino areas are based on what, one or 2 buoys in the area? But as can be seen below, they may be in an eddy of warmer water while clearly the "zone" is colder?



Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Not La Nina like:



Surface temps above 0 on the equator has reached the mid point of nino 3.4, so nino 3.4 as measured by TAO would now be pretty close to 0.

Note TAO has lower resolution than satellites, uses a 5 day average and applies significant smoothing, so that the individual cool and warm spots detected in equatorial eddies by satellite are averaged out.


Another big burst of trade winds coming next week. #LaNiña
Subsurface still looks healthy: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC007.gif #LaNiña
Eastern half of the Pacific has a classic #LaNiña signature to it, if you can't see that then I don't know what else to tell you. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/arch...=month&area=nat




From the above conversation with Mega.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Not La Nina like:


If you are going to call me a liar at least ensure you didn't leave a trail of evidence of my claims.

MY BOLD
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473304 - 13/10/2018 08:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3440
Loc: Buderim
Stating that conditions are not la Nina like and showing a picture of surface SSTs that are not La Nina like is totally different from refusing to acknowledge that the developing cold event was responsible for the October rain event.

Stop lieing and exagerating what I have said in the past.

And directly form what you quoted:

Quote:
La Nina atmosphere + cool nino regions means that the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks are likely to hold the atmospheric pattern for a period of several months. La nina atmospehre + neutral ocean = rain now, but no guarantee of how long the atmospheric pattern will hold.


I acknowledged the atmosphere as being in a La Nina like pattern, and I acknowledged that the La Nina like atmospheric pattern was contributing to the rains at the time. And then pointed out that the SSTs were clearly not in a La Nina like pattern so no guarantee that the atmospheric pattern would hold. Complete opposite of what you say I am saying.


Edited by Mike Hauber (13/10/2018 09:03)

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#1473305 - 13/10/2018 09:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18723
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Recent wet has been much stronger along the coast, but a mixed bag west of the ranges - Southern Qld doing well, but central Qld and much of NSW missing out. Normal ENSO impact is strong west of the ranges and weaker east of the range.









I probably should have put the image up rather than a link in the last post.

You quite clearly tried to remove a link between LaNina conditions and the rain event last Spring. There is strong correlation between those two charts.

Mike, I think we will have to agree to disagree as it is clear it is going to remain that way. Let's move on.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1473308 - 13/10/2018 09:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18723
Loc: The Beach.
For the record, the coastal strip of NSW is the least impacted in either El Nino or La Nina with only a slight deficiency recorded on average when the 12 most significant El Nino events are factored.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1473312 - 13/10/2018 09:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
liberator Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 319
Loc: Kyabram
I'm mostly a lurker here and Im trying to understand the weather and climate and yes they are totally different things. This forum is about what drives the climate. It's focussing on a few known influencers, enso iod pdo sam and the all important "ETC".

We all know that Earths climatic system is complex and chaotic and to be honest we're only just scratching the surface of our understanding of what the hells driving it. We seem to think we know but to be honest does anyone have any real idea?

We're lucky to have a few years of data and we're making significant and somewhat pasionate discussions about that data and what it all means. Do we really know?

Its great to see these interpretations of this data and these interpretations are just that "interpretations". Challenge that,thats a good healthy thing to do when it comes to science.

All good science comes from people questioning the norm, the facts, the data, the interpretation. There have been so many exciting things coming out of science because some scientists and others challenge the norm. Just dont settle for one idea because you were told it - question and challenge it.

Thats happening here lots of challenging lots of questioning but I can see people getting upset because how they see and interpret what they see is being challenged.Thats a healthy thing but only if done the right way.

I know this discussion is about the inflences on our climate and our day to day weather. Right now from a casual observer I've not been able to make head or tale of what the hells going on. I'm trying to learn but I see a lot of "bickering" I don't know if bickering is the right word or not. I certainly see some great passion about this topic. But in all honesty we are just looking at some data and making our own call on it.

Even the experts can't get it right. By the nino index we're not in a nino, we are now on a BOM alert but I see drought which is supposidly a nino outcome? Each climate system from the POD to SAM to IOD to NINO to ENSO to who knows what, the mysterious "ETC" may all impact each other and have some unforseen influence on our day to day weather and climate.

Stay passionate, challenge the norm, respect others opinions, challenge the data, respect your fellow posters interprtations of the data. If you disagree with them so be it. explain why clearly so those who dont get it may get it one day. From a lurkers POV I see passion but sometimes I see an unwilliness to listen and to accept being challenged.

I was going to say unwillingness to accept being wrong or right but in this chaotic system who is in really right or wrong? The Earth and its weather and climate is one huge chaotic system with so many variables that we know of and I'm sure there are hundreds of other variables we have no idea about but we are learning.

back to lurking...

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#1473316 - 13/10/2018 09:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: liberator]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2837
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: liberator
I'm mostly a lurker here and Im trying to understand the weather and climate and yes they are totally different things. This forum is about what drives the climate. It's focussing on a few known influencers, enso iod pdo sam and the all important "ETC".

We all know that Earths climatic system is complex and chaotic and to be honest we're only just scratching the surface of our understanding of what the hells driving it. We seem to think we know but to be honest does anyone have any real idea?

We're lucky to have a few years of data and we're making significant and somewhat pasionate discussions about that data and what it all means. Do we really know?

Its great to see these interpretations of this data and these interpretations are just that "interpretations". Challenge that,thats a good healthy thing to do when it comes to science.

All good science comes from people questioning the norm, the facts, the data, the interpretation. There have been so many exciting things coming out of science because some scientists and others challenge the norm. Just dont settle for one idea because you were told it - question and challenge it.

Thats happening here lots of challenging lots of questioning but I can see people getting upset because how they see and interpret what they see is being challenged.Thats a healthy thing but only if done the right way.

I know this discussion is about the inflences on our climate and our day to day weather. Right now from a casual observer I've not been able to make head or tale of what the hells going on. I'm trying to learn but I see a lot of "bickering" I don't know if bickering is the right word or not. I certainly see some great passion about this topic. But in all honesty we are just looking at some data and making our own call on it.

Even the experts can't get it right. By the nino index we're not in a nino, we are now on a BOM alert but I see drought which is supposidly a nino outcome? Each climate system from the POD to SAM to IOD to NINO to ENSO to who knows what, the mysterious "ETC" may all impact each other and have some unforseen influence on our day to day weather and climate.

Stay passionate, challenge the norm, respect others opinions, challenge the data, respect your fellow posters interprtations of the data. If you disagree with them so be it. explain why clearly so those who dont get it may get it one day. From a lurkers POV I see passion but sometimes I see an unwilliness to listen and to accept being challenged.

I was going to say unwillingness to accept being wrong or right but in this chaotic system who is in really right or wrong? The Earth and its weather and climate is one huge chaotic system with so many variables that we know of and I'm sure there are hundreds of other variables we have no idea about but we are learning.

back to lurking...


Great points.

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#1473318 - 13/10/2018 09:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18723
Loc: The Beach.
Yes I thought it was a great post
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1473356 - 13/10/2018 13:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3440
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Recent wet has been much stronger along the coast, but a mixed bag west of the ranges - Southern Qld doing well, but central Qld and much of NSW missing out. Normal ENSO impact is strong west of the ranges and weaker east of the range.


You quite clearly tried to remove a link between LaNina conditions and the rain event last Spring. There is strong correlation between those two charts.

Mike, I think we will have to agree to disagree as it is clear it is going to remain that way. Let's move on.


Looks like what I have would have said part way through October, when rainfall totals clearly did not reflect a La Nina pattern. By the end of October the October rainfall looks quite La Nina like, but an ENSO event should not be judged by one months rainfall, and 3 or 6 month averages did not at any stage look La Nina like.

I see you ignored the post where I clearly stated that the rains at the times were due to La Nina like atmospheric conditions.

Does not fit the narrative does it?

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#1473357 - 13/10/2018 13:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 340
No, it’s really not that great a post and speaks as to why this whole thing has become such a mess.
Yes, challenge what you are told, do your own research but understand where your own limits lie. Some on here take the approach that they seem to know more than just about every climate scientist, biologist, physicist, chemist who actually work in these fields. Well, the way most of the points are argued on here, you clearly don’t.
Stop talking bs about invalid timeframes and measurements when there are clear independent variables in the natural world who’s behaviour/changes clearly match the expectations of theories provided to a better than not level of certainty.

On another note, some have hinted a level of bewilderment at the fact that we have seen both great wet and dry despite the absence of strong El Niño/La Nina etc. I wonder if maybe that’s something to do with a warmer atmosphere able to hold more water vapour, perhaps leading to more irratic and intense periods of wet and dry. Funny how well that fits in with a certain theory..

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#1473359 - 13/10/2018 13:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7637
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Seira
#1473007 -- I have an idea of what could be banned, or rather kept in check -- but I don't know about the common ground part.


Yeah..spot on....

No...not spot on...the response would be "what is the idea....?"

I'm done discussing what I was trying to allude to.

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#1473366 - 13/10/2018 14:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2642
Originally Posted By: Kino

All this is from a peer-reviewed paper. An Australian paper.

https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/52041/

If that main dataset is so corrupted, how can the output be trusted?



That paper is not peer-reviewed.

It clearly states in the paper that it is a thesis (PhD).

I'd wait for an actual real peer reviewed paper before making claims such as "the main dataset is so corrupted"
_________________________

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#1473373 - 13/10/2018 15:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CeeBee]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 722
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: Kino

All this is from a peer-reviewed paper. An Australian paper.

https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/52041/

If that main dataset is so corrupted, how can the output be trusted?



That paper is not peer-reviewed.

It clearly states in the paper that it is a thesis (PhD).

I'd wait for an actual real peer reviewed paper before making claims such as "the main dataset is so corrupted"





It’s straight from the right wing handbook.

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