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#1483519 - 01/01/2019 09:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Last two years rainfall, dry in both the ENSO and IOD regions.



Average SOI for last two years: 1.5
Average nino 3.4: 0.06
Average IOD: 0.05
Average nino 4: 0.26.
Average Jamstec modoki index: 0.04

Nino 3.4 and IOD, and Jamstec Modoki index give a quite weak dry signal, SOI gives a weak wet signal. The strongest dry signal comes from nino 4.

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#1483522 - 01/01/2019 09:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
As usual, context is important, not some cherry picked map. This is the



And this is what it’s supposed to look like under Mikes El Niño that never eventuated (yet again). This looks nothing alike.



Throwing up images over 2 years and differing ENSO states is meaningless. We all know it’s been dry for some areas and wetter for some areas.

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#1483527 - 01/01/2019 10:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
This thread has become a joke. The endless El Niño debate or lack there of, has become so tiresome.

I propose a change. Rather than debating whether or not we have an El Niño etc, why not use current info and make our own predictions as to what we may see weather wise in the weeks or months ahead? Be more interesting and really put peoples weather knowledge to the test other than just carrying on about how bad the BOM is.

I will have a look at some of the info and see if I can do any crystal ball waorknof my own.

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#1483528 - 01/01/2019 10:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
This thread has become a joke. The endless El Niño debate or lack there of, has become so tiresome.

I propose a change. Rather than debating whether or not we have an El Niño etc, why not use current info and make our own predictions as to what we may see weather wise in the weeks or months ahead? Be more interesting and really put peoples weather knowledge to the test other than just carrying on about how bad the BOM is.

I will have a look at some of the info and see if I can do any crystal ball waorknof my own.


A great idea. See, you can do better than simply trolling.

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#1483530 - 01/01/2019 10:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
So
Originally Posted By: Kino
As usual, context is important, not some cherry picked map. This is the



Says the cherry picker.

If you want to compare rainfall to the impact of a standard el nino, how about using the period that a standard el nino usually has its impact, which is Jun to Nov. The comparison then looks like





But if you are a cherry picker that only wants to see what you want to see you ignore the larger set of data that shows the opposite of what you want to see and cherry pick a smaller set of data showing what you do want to see. And even this cherry picked map shows larger areas of dry then wet for Eastern Australia. Lol and double lol.

The modoki analysis I compare to is Dec to Mar, so much as I would like to expand the comparison to the full data period, the data is not yet available.

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#1483532 - 01/01/2019 10:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Eh, forget it.


Edited by Kino (01/01/2019 10:51)

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#1483534 - 01/01/2019 10:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.




I think you can easily make similarities to both.
_________________________


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#1483536 - 01/01/2019 11:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
This thread has become a joke. The endless El Niño debate or lack there of, has become so tiresome.

I propose a change. Rather than debating whether or not we have an El Niño etc, why not use current info and make our own predictions as to what we may see weather wise in the weeks or months ahead? Be more interesting and really put peoples weather knowledge to the test other than just carrying on about how bad the BOM is.

I will have a look at some of the info and see if I can do any crystal ball waorknof my own.


El Nino Modoki influence. Becoming wetter in January and February around the top end. Then dry through Autumn. ENSO SST indexes to be close to steady. If the current WWB follows EC they will probably drop slightly as per the general model consensus, and a moderate chance of back to back el nino, and a moderate chance of neutral following. If the current WWB is like GFS then el nino conditions to intensify and a high chance of back to back el nino.

Will Kino and Coldfront be game to put up a prediction? Or continue to play the game of criticising every step of every prediction. And then when the prediction is borderline el nino with a higher chance of el nino and still a significant chance of warm neutral, pretending that I only predicted el nino. And that a borderline event which is quite likely to meet CPC definition for el nino, has yet to meet BOM's defn, but still may, and has met MEI definition for el nino is a victory.

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#1483542 - 01/01/2019 11:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
I've got more sense than to make future forecast of ENSO state. Your infamous ElNino 2017 will go down in history. Particularly as you spent much of this year denying it also, until I showed you the actual declaration last month.

As Adon said, even a stopped clock is right twice a day and given the current state of the oceans a leaning towards an ElNino in 2019 isn't very clever at all, particularly when your notes are all someone else's work at another ENSO site.

...and if you go back through my notes you will find I suggested a weak ElNino was likely this year however I disputed the criteria.
_________________________


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#1483549 - 01/01/2019 12:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I've got more sense than to make future forecast of ENSO state. Your infamous ElNino 2017 will go down in history. Particularly as you spent much of this year denying it also, until I showed you the actual declaration last month.


As always you lie about what I said. I said warm neutral or El nino. It was warm neutral for a good part of the year. I spent much of this year focusing on this year, but a stopped clock like you doesn't want to move forward but focus on the one and only time in the past when they were right. The last time I made an el nino prediction in that year was July or August. Year before last. Talk about being stuck in the past.

You have no guts to make your own predictions, but play the game of mocking those who do, for one time they were wrong. I've been posting on this thread for over ten years and made many predictions. Some of the others were even wrong as well even.


Edited by Mike Hauber (01/01/2019 12:21)

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#1483552 - 01/01/2019 12:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
What springs to mind when I see you guys bickering...



Can we get back to discussing current and future ENSO, IOD etc conditions? I really enjoy reading this thread for the wealth of knowledge everyone brings. Let's try and keep it positive and forward looking.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1483553 - 01/01/2019 13:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Ease up on the personal attacks Mike.

...and yes RD I agree.


Edited by ColdFront (01/01/2019 13:09)
_________________________


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#1483557 - 01/01/2019 13:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I've got more sense than to make future forecast of ENSO state. Your infamous ElNino 2017 will go down in history. Particularly as you spent much of this year denying it also, until I showed you the actual declaration last month.

As Adon said, even a stopped clock is right twice a day and given the current state of the oceans a leaning towards an ElNino in 2019 isn't very clever at all, particularly when your notes are all someone else's work at another ENSO site.

...and if you go back through my notes you will find I suggested a weak ElNino was likely this year however I disputed the criteria.


You launch this an unprovoked personal attack, I call you on it, and you have the hypocrosy to then go on with

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Ease up on the personal attacks Mike.

...and yes RD I agree.


Edited by Mike Hauber (01/01/2019 13:12)

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#1483558 - 01/01/2019 13:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


I think you can easily make similarities to both.


Yes there is also an IOD influence in those charts.

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#1483559 - 01/01/2019 13:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
It was an honest observation and I have already said what I think will happen this year, you just chose not to see, though there is the matter of the predictability barrier. The rules have not followed true for the past few years so why would they this year?

I think there has been a mix of impacts this past 6 months but to suggest we had an ElNino pattern on the surface is a fabrication of what has actually transpired. The rules are being bent on the true terminology of ElNino and even Modoki and it's happening to appease people that really have no grasp of why the atmosphere and oceans didn't couple in 2018. Similarly in previous so-called modoki events, science looks for justification.

There is something much bigger at play than ENSO and that is shown in the state of the UOHC throughout the pacific. As I don't wish to open discussion about that taboo subject I won't be adding any further. The irony being that I think we may actually lean the same way in that regard and in opposition to Kino and Marakai's view but it's off the table of discussion and I'm not arrogant enough to think I've lived long enough to know for certain .

My issue is the steadfast refusal to look beyond historical charts and concrete rules where there are none and base an argument on "just because".
_________________________


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#1483569 - 01/01/2019 14:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
There is still other stuff happening. Some of this stuff could easily happen if the world were to hypothetically become warmer for some reason. I think you look a lot at implications on Indian Ocean of this heating, but I also look at heating of Australian and Asian land masses, and much slower heating of subsurface, which means slower warming of far east Pacific, faster warming in west Pacific, and Faster warming again over land masses for increased monsoon and strength of walker circulation. Then there is China clean air policy which might be heating SE Asia through less aerosol cooling, pulling an increased walker circulation, but also weakening the push towards Australia for our monsoon.

ENSO is still happening and having an influence, and thats a topic I am very interested in and want to talk about. I have no problem with talking about IOD and whatever, and would actually like more of it, but I get frustrated when comments such as looking at the wrong basin get made.

The atmospheric pattern this year definitely does not match a standard el nino. My explanation is that the warming is further west and responses around cloudiness and trade winds are happening. This year the warming has been even further west than previous modoki events. I can imagine if you have an alternate explanation and feel you cannot discuss it because of taboo topic that would be frustrating, but it is also very frustrating to be attacked on my explanation the way I have been. I see no specific reason behind the attacks other than 'just because', added to 'so and so said so' (some well credentialed so and so's to be sure).

I have no idea who you think the people that someone is trying to appease that really have no grasp of why the atmosphere and oceans didn't couple. I'm looking for an explanation or my own sake, and hopefully because other people reading or commenting on this forum might also find the explanation. I am certainly not trying to appease anyone and it seems the entire world is against me, so unless you mean something like others here trying to appease me?

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#1483570 - 01/01/2019 14:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I am certainly not trying to appease anyone and it seems the entire world is against me, so unless you mean something like others here trying to appease me?



That feeling the world is against you can be of your own making if you chose to challenge every single thing others post. I've felt that because you copped a grilling in 2017 you've tried to pull apart everything I have offered up and discredit it since.

On appeasement I was referring to climate science in general Mike, not you personally. When it is not understood clearly rules are applied to the nearest thing for justification when sometimes it is nothing more than coincidence. That's what science does. That was my main criticism of Ventrice and it's something you are guilty of from time to time. Comments like "50% of ElNino's have one wet month" are not really valid when 50% do not. It's pointless trying to make a point on that.

I actually encouraged Petros to venture into reading up on the south pacific gyre and other current influence and he went into such a much broader expansion beyond that and it has been a joy watching his understanding of ENSO grow . I also feel that his contribution has been brushed aside despite its absolute honesty which is a sad indictment on some in this thread because he has been damned near bang on in his findings but cast to one side . There is some ground breaking research as to why there was such disruption in ENSO development in 2014 and it wasn't because there weren't enough WWB's which is why I got so frustrated with the repeated view that it was an unwavering rule.....it's not . It happened again briefly this year and may actually be part of the reason for the MJO not sequencing with a warm sea surface pattern .

I think there are numerous contributors here that are more than capable of writing out long winded technical pieces on what's going on with ENSO but sometimes it is the simpler snippets that grab my attention. 2018 will go down as an extremely unusual ENSO year. It defies the convention of ElNino of both states .

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


ENSO is still happening and having an influence



It is always happening and always having an influence , it just isn't exclusive. I'll lay bets that I can go back and find neutral years that look like ElNino or Modoki and ElNino years that were wet.
_________________________


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#1483576 - 01/01/2019 16:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

When it is not understood clearly rules are applied to the nearest thing for justification when sometimes it is nothing more than coincidence. That's what science does. That was my main criticism of Ventrice and it's something you are guilty of from time to time. Comments like "50% of ElNino's have one wet month" are not really valid when 50% do not. It's pointless trying to make a point on that.


50% of el ninos having wet month is an appeal to the possibility of coincidence. My point is certainly not that the wet month was caused by an el nino or provesel nino, but that wet months still happen from time to time during el nino's so one wet month does not mean there was no el nino, but that it is just coincidence. I was not trying to make a point, but refute a point.

Another place where you may think I am ignoring coincidence is the resemblance between Modoki pattern and observed pattern in rainfall. I do not claim there is no room for coincidence in this resemblance. Also there is a clear role for Ningaloo Nina. Basically the atmospheric pattern is southerlies along the west coast and westerlies along the north coast. Warm water is at one end of this pattern giving a pull and cool water at the other end in the Indian giving a push. The resemblance is there and cannot be dismissed as 'there is no modoki', or 'but Oct-Dec' rainfall looks like X. It might be coincidence, or it might be because their really is a modoki. Put the piece of evidence in the 'supports but does not prove modoki' side and move onto the next piece which might be 'goes against modoki'. If you think I am overstating the significance of the match than say that I am overstating the signficance and that it could be a coincidence, but what I'm getting (maybe more from others) is that the piece of evidence shouldn't even be discussed and is totally meaningless.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

There is some ground breaking research as to why there was such disruption in ENSO development in 2014 and it wasn't because there weren't enough WWB's which is why I got so frustrated with the repeated view that it was an unwavering rule.....it's not . It happened again briefly this year and may actually be part of the reason for the MJO not sequencing with a warm sea surface pattern .


There was far less WWB in mid 2014 than other strong el ninos. Simple fact. It might not be the entire reason why 2014 didn't go to extreme, but it certainly had a significant and easy to see role. One paper claiming this. I am open to considering other factors, but it would take an exceptional explanation of how other factors caused 100% of the effect and for reason XYZ the lack of WWBs did not have the expected impact to convince me that WWBs were not important. Of course begs the question of why were there not enough WWB, with WWB failing after the Pacific became warm enough to presumably support much more frequent WWB activity.

More generally there is a tight correspondence to WWB activity and short term warming. I have looked at all WWB and SST change activity from 97 to now in TAO backwards, sideways and frontways over and over again for nearly a decade, and the vast majority of the time short term trends can be matched to recent changes in trade winds. There are exceptions, and the variations in impact of one kelvin wave to another in the far east in particular are are prone to variations that I cannot explain, but central Pac relationship to WWB activity seems quite reliable. However something I'm trying to look at more is that analysing the short term influences can hide the longer term influences. Each WWB may add a moderate amount of heat and one year another influence means just a little less heat added each WWB than in another year, and my observations won't really pick this up.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I'll lay bets that I can go back and find neutral years that look like ElNino or Modoki and ElNino years that were wet.


Neutral years with el nino or modoki rainfall patterns (I assume thats what you mean) - yes. El Nino years that were genuinely wet (and not just near average) - not really. BOM series on past el ninos has only one event that could be argued to be wet and that is 93/94 with wet conditions in NSW/VIC probably outweighing dry conditions in QLD, but by little enough that I might argue it should be considered an average year not wet. This year had a very weak SST signal with ONI peaking at 0.7 in late Autumn, and back to 0 by Nov

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#1483624 - 01/01/2019 21:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Ease up on the personal attacks Mike.

...and yes RD I agree.


Have got to be kidding.

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#1483633 - 01/01/2019 23:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Don't do this any more it's not good for people to hear!

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