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#1481991 - 21/12/2018 12:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


That shows that ENSO affect Hadley. Says nothing about Hadley affecting ENSO.


Who said that? I said they have a ROLE which that paper clearly shows they do. Stop making things up.

Originally Posted By: Kino
s for the statement about SOI - that shows no understanding of Hadley Cells and their roles in ENSO


Edited by Kino (21/12/2018 13:00)

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#1481992 - 21/12/2018 13:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks all. I shouldnt have referred to the current SSL chart (I use the NOAA CPC one on StormSurf) - as it is dated 14/12/18, ....so getting a bit stale.

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#1481993 - 21/12/2018 13:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Therefore SOI is not part of coupling.


_________________________


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#1481995 - 21/12/2018 13:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Do I detect a return of the detested "Quidge" in coming days (going by GFS).

Whatever has caused the lack of coupling in Pacific this year, maybe it causes the Quidge too? We hate the damned thing down here in Vic..

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#1481999 - 21/12/2018 13:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Petros
Do I detect a return of the detested "Quidge" in coming days (going by GFS).

Whatever has caused the lack of coupling in Pacific this year, maybe it causes the Quidge too? We hate the damned thing down here in Vic..


Well we have had weeks of low pressures / troughs & generally unsettled weather so I guess we're due for a ridge. It'll be a nice clean out & reset hopefully for the next system(s) to push through. Looking like the Northern Aus Monsoon should kick in by the end of the Month, and generally that's preceded by a few weeks of very hot weather.

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#1482009 - 21/12/2018 14:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Therefore SOI is not part of coupling.






How can the SOI be part of the mechanism which sustains el nino when SOI is at La Nina levels and SSTs are borderline el nino levels?

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#1482011 - 21/12/2018 14:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Therefore SOI is not part of coupling.






How can the SOI be part of the mechanism which sustains el nino when SOI is at La Nina levels and SSTs are borderline el nino levels?


Easy - it demonstrates the HADLEY CELLS and their locations. Hadley Cells demonstrate the coupling of sea & air in ENSO.

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#1482012 - 21/12/2018 14:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
And neither does El Nino, Mike - you cannot have it both ways:

Originally Posted By: JAMSTEC
El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. It is different from another coupled phenomenon in the tropical Pacific namely, El Niño. Conventional El Niño is characterized by strong anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (see figure below). Whereas, El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific (see figure below). Associated with this distinct warming and cooling patterns the teleconnections are very different from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Hence, the new phenomenon is of interest to the climate community.




But clearly anomalous SSL are directly relatable to ENSO conditions.


As I have said quite a few times all research papers that discuss Modoki, list 2002 as a modoki year when the waters in the east had significantly warmer anomalies than central (nino 3 of 1.2 vs nino 4 of 0.8). This includes the research papers that the explanation you quote is claimed to be based on - look at the references cited down the bottom and look them up.

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#1482013 - 21/12/2018 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


That shows that ENSO affect Hadley. Says nothing about Hadley affecting ENSO.


Who said that? I said they have a ROLE which that paper clearly shows they do. Stop making things up.

Originally Posted By: Kino
s for the statement about SOI - that shows no understanding of Hadley Cells and their roles in ENSO


You said it. You said Hadley Cells have a role in ENSO. How can you argue they have a role in ENSO if ENSO influences Hadley but Hadley does not influenc eENSO? You are trying to argue that Tahiti and Darwin are good places to measure ENSO because the Hadley Cell occurs over these locations.

You have quote a paper that states ENSO influences the Hadley Cell. I can also easily find research papers that show ENSO influences the jetstream position in North America. Your argument is like me arguing that Washington would be a good location to measure the activity of ENSO and that the jetsream in North America has a role in ENSO.

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#1482022 - 21/12/2018 14:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Do you even know what role means? Where does it imply 'driver' or 'primary' or 'responsible'?.

Here's what Mirriam says 'role' means, just for you
Originally Posted By: Mirriam Webster
Role: a function or part performed especially in a particular operation or process


Given Hadley Cells are a process of the atmosphere; and the atmosphere has a key ROLE in ENSO, then my statement is 100% correct. Hadley Cells have a ROLE in ENSO.

As for your last statement - as I showed previously, the Hadley Cells take energy from the tropics and distribute it polewards. So of course, air pressure is a key driver and identifier of that process. Seeing as ENSO is focused in the tropics and it's impacts and distributed by the Hadley Cells, then Tahiti and Darwin are clearly ideal places to monitor. I'd like to see a few more added - so we get a better snapshot of the influences - but seeing as there is very little land in the northern hemisphere adjacent to key ENSO zones, not sure that will ever happen. Besides, people more qualified and intelligent and humble have decided that these 2 places are the key locations worth monitoring. So I'll defer to them.

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#1482023 - 21/12/2018 14:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
As I have said quite a few times all research papers that discuss Modoki, list 2002 as a modoki year when the waters in the east had significantly warmer anomalies than central (nino 3 of 1.2 vs nino 4 of 0.8). This includes the research papers that the explanation you quote is claimed to be based on - look at the references cited down the bottom and look them up.


You have said, numerous times, that SSL's are an important indicator in Nino (weather standard or Modoki) - I then posted an image that showed that SSL's over Nino 4 were lower than 3.4, disproving your Modoki claim. You then shift the debate to 2002 which I haven't mentioned.

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#1482024 - 21/12/2018 15:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Given that Snowstorms in England are a process of the atmopshere. And the atmosphere has a key Role in ENSO. Then Snowstorms in England have a role in ENSO.

Nonsense.

And so is your argument.

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#1482025 - 21/12/2018 15:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Peer reviewed Research on coupling in ENSO

Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming

Mentions winds, cloudiness and Thermocline (ocean subsurface). Nowhere is SOI or Hadley cell mentioned.

How Important Is Air–Sea Coupling in ENSO and MJO Evolution?

Mentions winds and cloudiness. Nowhere is SOI or Hadley cell mentioned.

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#1482026 - 21/12/2018 15:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Perhaps you need to write to the Peer Reviewed paper guys and tell them that - otherwise the only nonsense is your hubris.

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#1482029 - 21/12/2018 15:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Peer reviewed Research on coupling in ENSO

Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming

Mentions winds, cloudiness and Thermocline (ocean subsurface). Nowhere is SOI or Hadley cell mentioned.

How Important Is Air–Sea Coupling in ENSO and MJO Evolution?

Mentions winds and cloudiness. Nowhere is SOI or Hadley cell mentioned.


Now surely you jest? Isn't WIND a product of unequal air pressure, Mike? Isn't the SOI a measure of air pressure at a given point? Isn't ENSO about the movement of air (i.e. winds) from west to east; thereby shifting the convergence areas (& its impacts like RAIN and LOWER AIR PRESSURE) associated with Ferrrell Cells and Hadley Cells colliding?

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#1482034 - 21/12/2018 15:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Perhaps you need to write to the Peer Reviewed paper guys and tell them that - otherwise the only nonsense is your hubris.


No need to write to the peer reviewed paper guys and tell them that you are using their papers in a nonsense argument.

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#1482035 - 21/12/2018 15:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Now surely you jest? Isn't WIND a product of unequal air pressure, Mike? Isn't the SOI a measure of air pressure at a given point? Isn't ENSO about the movement of air (i.e. winds) from west to east; thereby shifting the convergence areas (& its impacts like RAIN and LOWER AIR PRESSURE) associated with Ferrrell Cells and Hadley Cells colliding?


Not all wind on the planet is the product of pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. We have winds that are driving an el nino like state. And SOI in a La Nina like state. Therefore SOI is not important for driving the SST state.

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#1482043 - 21/12/2018 15:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Again you deliberately misquote and deflect - neither I or Coldfront or anyone has said SOI is a driver - a measure, yes.


Edited by Kino (21/12/2018 15:45)

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#1482048 - 21/12/2018 15:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
I wasn't quoting you. Just stating the logical implications of the current situation.

So does that mean you agree with me that SOI is not an important driver of the SST state?

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#1482050 - 21/12/2018 16:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The SOI is only a measure - as for whether air pressure is a driver or a result leads one straight back to whether the sea drives the air or vice versus. Clearly the sun is the primary driver.

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