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#1466088 - 19/06/2018 20:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
But is it not easier for an elnino to establish rather than an LaNina historically?


I would have thought the other way. El Nino's are more common then La Nina's.

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#1466090 - 19/06/2018 20:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
That’s what I meant

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#1466101 - 20/06/2018 05:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Still waiting for that El Niño Mike....there’s your conspiracy.


Do you think its not coming? Do you have a particular prediction for the current event, or are you just going to take potshots, hope it falls apart, claim you predicted correctly if it does fall apart, and claim you never predicted anything else if it does arrive?

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#1466123 - 20/06/2018 11:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
But is it not easier for an elnino to establish rather than an LaNina historically?


I would have thought the other way. El Nino's are more common then La Nina's.


I don't think there's an easy answer to this other than since 1900 we've had 24 El Nino events and 18 La Nina's. Up to 1973 it was 16 El Nino's to 13 La Nina's. Of course, perhaps a better measurement would perhaps be how many months was the Nino 3.4 anomaly above 0.5C or below -0.5C.

I would also anticipate that if we were in a warming climate (without further getting into any climate change discussion) that we would be more prone to El Nino's given it's a measurement of an SST anomaly against a long term baseline depending on how frequently the baseline was re-assessed.

The other question is how the PDO ties in. Is it a driver or simply a response to other drivers.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1466125 - 20/06/2018 11:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Don't know. All I know is we had one of the biggest El Nino's a couple of years back and it is still dry.

Maybe we are still feeling the lingering effects of that last El Nino.

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#1466139 - 20/06/2018 15:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 134
Loc: Rockhampton - Xtra Dry Dust La...
Originally Posted By: RC
Don't know. All I know is we had one of the biggest El Nino's a couple of years back and it is still dry.

Maybe we are still feeling the lingering effects of that last El Nino.


Rocky is always under El Nino conditions RC.
You should know that.

If we do get a flood, it's rain that has fallen elsewhere in areas experiencing a 'real' La Nina that just ends up in the Fitzroy Catchment. Like 2017 April flood, it didn't even rain in Rocky yet we got a Major Flood. Go figure.


Edited by ifishcq (20/06/2018 15:36)
_________________________
“It's so dry the trees are bribing the dogs.”
Charles Martin

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#1466220 - 21/06/2018 22:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Flowin
It appears to me much of the climate driver discussion is heat or temperature of the ocean and effect on temps of water / air and what that drives the dynamics of air and water movements.... And feedback to stored heat in water.
Or, is there something else at play?
assuming land is a slow[*] heat flux.
N.B. This isa totally exploratory question to clarify understanding not a statement of fact. Corrections welcome

[*] – Corrections acknowledged.

Below is not so much a correction as an alternative perspective smile , caveats and all.

My understanding is land tends to have a smaller heat retention, generally-speaking, than open ocean-water. This means it absorbs heat, heats up quicker, and cools down faster...which would mean the rate of heat exchange or transfer between soil and air is greater in magnitude, particularly with less cloud. There can be exceptions to this principle though, especially when soil is water-logged, however, as mentioned, soil heat-retention tends to be lower.

In comparison, liquid water has a much greater ability to retain heat, before it is transferred to or exchanged with another medium. This would mean, taking into account the rough overall volume of the oceans, that less heat is exchanged between air and water surfaces than what would happen with soil.

This does not take into account seasonal variations in vegetation cover, though, nor the fact water molecules release/expend energy from vapour, to liquid to solid, nor the transitional steam phase.

So this would be an incomplete and inadequate description of mine, with all the “nors,” “thoughs” and “exceptions.” added. It gives an idea anyway smile .

There are other hypotheses around as well regarding heating of the oceans [e.g. from internal degassing by submarine vents on the ocean floor] to be explored.

So, to address the exploration idea -- yes, there is a lot to it. There's the front cover of the book, then there's the book's contents.

Enjoy the book, whatever the exploration smile .

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#1466393 - 25/06/2018 09:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This easterly dip currently forming over inland Qld and NSW looks interesting. Especially given that longer term models predict it re-forming in the same areas in a weeks time.

Indicative that the waters around Aus are still warm enough to support rain events in the near term imo. ....that this comes with the MJO still way out west in phase 1?

If El Nino is looming, there looks to be interesting weather yet to be encountered ahead of it??

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#1466403 - 25/06/2018 13:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Petros
This easterly dip currently forming over inland Qld and NSW looks interesting. Especially given that longer term models predict it re-forming in the same areas in a weeks time.

Indicative that the waters around Aus are still warm enough to support rain events in the near term imo. ....that this comes with the MJO still way out west in phase 1?

If El Nino is looming, there looks to be interesting weather yet to be encountered ahead of it??


Not very developing El-Nino like that's for sure.

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#1466404 - 25/06/2018 14:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Considering how el nino like rainfall conditions have been for the last year or so, maybe it should be no suprise that a couple of half decent rain systems pop up as Pacific conditions start to become quite el nino like.




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#1466407 - 25/06/2018 15:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I think we'll be wetter La Nina like in a weak El Nino/Modoki as opposed to last years drier El Nino like La Nina.

TS cool

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#1466409 - 25/06/2018 16:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I thought it was usually really dry in a leak El Nino. I know other things come into it though.

Really bad droughts happen when things all align up. Same goes for really wet years.

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#1466416 - 25/06/2018 17:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Long way out, but this is what GFS is currently predicting:


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#1466430 - 25/06/2018 20:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
There is so much discussion in Niña vs Nino about wet versus dry expectations but that is far too simple. Dry periods have occurred in Niña events and wet periods in Nino. It would be better if anticipation recognises that more probable wet or dry does not mean will be more wet or dry.

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#1466437 - 25/06/2018 23:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 671
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Petros
This easterly dip currently forming over inland Qld and NSW looks interesting. Especially given that longer term models predict it re-forming in the same areas in a weeks time.

Indicative that the waters around Aus are still warm enough to support rain events in the near term imo. ....that this comes with the MJO still way out west in phase 1?

If El Nino is looming, there looks to be interesting weather yet to be encountered ahead of it??


Not very developing El-Nino like that's for sure.


This is why you can’t be taken seriously Kino. Your comment has absolutely no substance to it other than trying to stir the pot. Surely even you know that wet events can occur in El Ninos and dry events can occur in La Niña as well. Individual events don’t give evidence to one state or the other, trends do.

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#1466445 - 26/06/2018 07:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: RC
I thought it was usually really dry in a leak El Nino. I know other things come into it though.

Really bad droughts happen when things all align up. Same goes for really wet years.


Statistically stronger ENSO events have a stronger impact on rainfall. But there are lots of exceptions. I think an important factor is how far west the anomalies extend, with the impact being stronger if the anomalies come further west. So far this warm event is stronger in the east, but time will tell whether it stays that way.

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#1466450 - 26/06/2018 08:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
Every El Nino and La Nina is different. Last summer we had La Nina conditions but with elements of El Nino mixed in. El Ninolike conditions have been present since late 2012

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#1466451 - 26/06/2018 08:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
Originally Posted By: Flowin
There is so much discussion in Niña vs Nino about wet versus dry expectations but that is far too simple. Dry periods have occurred in Niña events and wet periods in Nino. It would be better if anticipation recognises that more probable wet or dry does not mean will be more wet or dry.


Yep, trying to second guess weather outcomes....recognise the limitations and move on to a discussion of drivers..or remain silent as needs be...

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#1466452 - 26/06/2018 08:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: gassatsv
This is why you can’t be taken seriously Kino. Your comment has absolutely no substance to it other than trying to stir the pot. Surely even you know that wet events can occur in El Ninos and dry events can occur in La Niña as well. Individual events don’t give evidence to one state or the other, trends do.


This has to be irony, right? Weren't you one of those saying that it wasn't a La Nina because Townsville was getting the rain you thought it should?

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#1466498 - 26/06/2018 21:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 671
Loc: Townsville
I never said it wasn’t La Niña, I was only ever responding to your claims that ‘La Nina conditions’ were so prevalent. And they most certainly weren’t..it’s affects were piss poor. So here you are saying that this isn’t very El Niño like but when we were saying conditions weren’t La Niña like in summer you jumped down our throats. Fair whack of irony in that as well.

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