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#1473466 - 14/10/2018 08:48 SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14972
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right, have been thinking about a thread for this for a few days now but figured it's going to be needed for sure to document this event...

A week ago models had a 4 day severe weather outbreak with a blocked cut off low and a NE infeed with a retrograding sfc trough and upper low combination....that has since weakened and changed to a moderate strength sfc trough and low extending from the west but still decent enough for some areas.

Essentially we have some moisture feeding in from the NE (evident by the sfc based Cu over the last 2 afternoons) as well as mid-level moisture from the west with some weak shortwave troughs....isolated showers and thunderstorms over the West Coast and EP last night, all weakening as they move SE giving remnant mid-level showers over us this morning as we see now.

With heating today we should see renewed afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms develop, chiefly over the EP/West Coast areas pushing towards the southern ag/central and eastern areas during the day and evening. A deepening new sfc low will form within the broad trough area over the west/NW areas of the state in response to a strong upper trough/upper low moving into the Bight with strong dynamic forcing and good upper divergence.

As the upper low closes in, and a Low Level Jet develops nocturnally, showers and thunderstorms will increase, but chiefly offshore below the Eyre Peninsula sliding SE over the water, but clipping the bottoms of EP/YP with some heavier falls likely. Further north, activity will be more isolated with more scattered and lighter falls but still general mid-level showers and isolated thunderstorms, possibly becoming scattered after 3am or so over the central areas, before then activity could well remain west and south, or at least some large gaps in between storms near Adelaide.

Tomorrow, the sfc trough crosses the Adelaide region mid-morning around 10-1030am or so before moving east fairly quickly during the afternoon. With greater moisture and instability out east combined with persistent upper support, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will fire up rather strongly along/near the sfc troughline over the Mallee/Riverland/Upper and Lower SE districts with potential for some good falls about the Upper and especially Lower SE later on before the activity contracts east into NSW/VIC overnight. There is potential for some strong and organised thunderstorms out east tomorrow, especially with good NE inflow components ahead of the trough, increasing low level helicity and turning supporting some longer-lived storms so please be aware of any of these, especially over the Riverland and eastern Murraylands/Mallee

Rainfall generally spasmodic, some places could get less than 0.2mm but most should see 2-5mm, then up to 25mm at the foot of EP and the LSE with most other areas coming in between there. Hoping for 5-10mm over the southern suburbs of Adelaide.

TS cool

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#1473474 - 14/10/2018 10:11 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
epthunda Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 387
Loc: Lock South Australia
Awsome stuff Thunderstruck love your write ups, always check here for my forecasts over bom. Hopefully some decent storms around the place. Im living in Adelaide now for a few months so hopefully get a decent show.

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#1473492 - 14/10/2018 12:04 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 380
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Some nice bolts over Whyalla earlier. Bring on round 2. Northerly blowing it's guts out now.

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#1473496 - 14/10/2018 12:46 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3930
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
y'all better tie your kids and dogs to the nearest stobie pole
Dis thing in the gulf is hammering down on Adelaide like a
freight train and it's whopperising by the minute.
by the time it gets here it's going to be like a feral cat with
a bad attitude and all over us like a bad rash.........and the
news tonight.

TH
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#1473498 - 14/10/2018 13:02 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 380
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Lucky buggers. Hold on tight.


Edited by Bolt (14/10/2018 13:02)

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#1473520 - 14/10/2018 14:54 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3930
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
well... nothing like talking up a storm to guarantee it
turning to crap, that and adelaids forcefield sure did a
nice number on this one. never mind, what with the last
times non event for here, el nino and a +IOD just have to
relax, sit back and watch another basically non existant
crap storm season i suppose.

TH
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#1473527 - 14/10/2018 15:57 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 195
Loc: Reynella, SA
Lots of rumbles and a spattering of rain but appears to be more on the way. frown




Edit: grammar


Edited by puddles (14/10/2018 15:59)

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#1473548 - 14/10/2018 17:45 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 586
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Radar looking good now

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#1473550 - 14/10/2018 17:50 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: willitrainagain]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14972
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: willitrainagain
Radar looking good now


Depends what you're after! looks bad for storms, good for a band of rain....should be a break in storm activity till at least 11-12pm when the jet exit and upper trough forcing closes in and lines start streaking down from the west coast/ep areas, though a lot will slide away below the land over the water.

TS cool

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#1473560 - 14/10/2018 18:28 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14972
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Will get very, very windy tonight as the LLJ increases and NE winds really crank up so heed the warning!

TS cool

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#1473567 - 14/10/2018 19:09 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Will get very, very windy tonight as the LLJ increases and NE winds really crank up so heed the warning!


Pretty much dead calm here right now - steady light rain.
Had gully winds the past couple of nights - see what happens!

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#1473571 - 14/10/2018 19:20 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2231
Loc: Clare, SA
Finally seeing the big storms develop out towards the western border, going to be some great lightning from these later this evening around e.p. Big divergent jet exit above that region at the moment. Hopefully whats left can give the central areas a show before sunrise.

Tomorrow has pretty solid potential out along the trough, a few hours later the timing and location would have been perfect but alas they'll be in difficult chase country and moving fast. Not often you get storms with a 60-70knot 500mb jet on their tail, though they'l be out ahead of the jet-max so won't be moving quite that fast. I can recall similiar setups producing fast moving supercells with destructive wind and hail so fingers crossed.
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#1473577 - 14/10/2018 19:39 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 380
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
At a guess Marcus what time around the EP?

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#1473587 - 14/10/2018 20:03 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2231
Loc: Clare, SA
Whyalla being so far NE on the e.p isn't well positioned for this event, best chances are probably in the next few hours and then again in the couple of hours leading up to sunrise but I feel sparks could happen at random all night over there, especially to your SW. The focus tonight will be on western e.p at first, extending eastwards as the night progresses. Looks like turning into a rainband along the west coast later tonight and cloud will be widespread eventually so I have concerns about that for any early morning stuff.

Should add it will be angling down so the gulf regions should get some stuff (whether that's storms or just rain is yet to be seen) sliding off e.p



Edited by Markus (14/10/2018 20:16)
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#1473589 - 14/10/2018 20:09 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1655
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
BOOOO,,, YEAH , i'm still alive,,,
Just soooooo busy with too much tooo dooo!
But enough of that...
Today...
Humid, warm, cloudy, saw two CG sparks today whilst driving down Wynvale drive that flashed ,, left then right,, just to be impressive smile
Was stuck inside INFLATABLE WORLD watching the little ones play , whilst outside the drops started and enough of them fell to wet the ground and that was about all. frown
Tracked back up MAIN NORTH ROAD and noticed a few puddles to indicate more substantial rainage up around Munno Para shopping centre.
Once home this arvo, whilst working outside doing STUFF....one smallish , darkish cloud skipped overhead and dropped some impressive sized dropps of rain but it didn't get going, so boohoo to that.
Approximately 6 pm it's stated to spot and rain increased to medium intensity, but has since lightend off.
Guess weve had about 3 mm... I'VE GIVEN UP ON MY WEATHER STATION,,, too hard to get working,, i just don't have to time or motivation to get it working.,,, i'll start saving for some ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENT WEATHER STATION THAT WILL SET ITSELF UP and FIX IT's own issues,,,,,
END OF WINGE....


Edited by Weather Guru (14/10/2018 20:10)
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Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 10.2 mm
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June
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Dec
2018 55.9 mm
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2016 571
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#1473593 - 14/10/2018 20:42 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 366
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
There has been some decent rain in South Plympton, a few rumbles of thunder in the middle of the day but nothing much. Currently raining and blowing it's guts out interspersed with relative calm.
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I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1473595 - 14/10/2018 20:51 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Lots of sparks out there - just not here in Adelaide.
Seems to be coming this way though I guess in to the wee hours it calms down...


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#1473605 - 14/10/2018 21:31 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 380
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
No worries Markus cheers. I'll be keeping a lookout for a few hours anyway.


Edited by Bolt (14/10/2018 21:31)

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#1473645 - 15/10/2018 00:08 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Wind is picking up here.

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#1473648 - 15/10/2018 00:28 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, Flinders, Mid North, Riverland, Murraylands, Upper South East and parts of Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Lower South East and North East Pastoral districts.

Issued at 10:58 pm Sunday, 14 October 2018.

Damaging north to northeasterly winds increasing early Monday morning to reach 50-65 km/h, with wind gusts of 90-100 km/h, mostly over and near elevated ground. Damaging winds then extending to eastern parts after sunrise.

Wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h are also possible with showers and thunderstorms across the warning area overnight and Monday.

Locations which may be affected include Adelaide, Whyalla, Renmark, Murray Bridge, Naracoorte and Leigh Creek.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your property.
* Stay indoors, away from windows, while conditions are severe.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 am ACDT Monday.

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#1473653 - 15/10/2018 01:18 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1671
Loc: Bridgewater
that was underwhelming.

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#1473656 - 15/10/2018 02:45 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3930
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
just for the record the systems coming in over e & yp at the
moment are moving at 110-115kmh, that's a lunatic speed i've
never seen before, the best i've seen when i've bothered to
measure is 90+ many years ago, a normal fast moving storm
i've found to be 80+ and an average middle of the road speed
is 60-70, below 40 starts to skirt zombie territory.
i think most people will know when this gets here, light rain
and breeze outside at the moment. like TS said the best will
go to the south but hopefully can get the top edge.

TH
_________________________



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#1473657 - 15/10/2018 04:20 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2231
Loc: Clare, SA
An incredible experience listening to the wind atm. Short periods of calm then you hear a roaring build in the wind above the ground before it slams through then back to calmness and silence. Had some very strong gusts here on the back end of a mid level rain area. When this LLJ mixes down it is quite nasty.

Going nuts out west, what ceduna has had tonight is nothing short of top shelf, incredible number of bolts.
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#1473660 - 15/10/2018 06:23 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2231
Loc: Clare, SA
Well that was pretty well the best high based nocturnal storm I've ever seen here. Absolutely massive angry bolts and very clean. Problem..I was to the west of Clare when they decided to go mental.. completely out of position to photograph, 90% ccs then goes angry CG mode directly over head. blegh

Still I'll take it, that was [censored] awesome.
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#1473663 - 15/10/2018 06:44 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 102

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#1473672 - 15/10/2018 08:50 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Lot of thunder action over night 32mm so far still set in light rain

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#1473674 - 15/10/2018 08:59 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14972
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Ep/West Coast certainly had the best of it last night, show of epic proportions constantly building and sliding down, unfortunately they kept spreading to broader showers and areas of patchy rain by the time they got near Adelaide as the focus point remained further west with LLJ over but critical sfc convergence to the west and mighty frustrating that was because you won't get a better setup for high based bolts and that was clear....however the slowness of things has helped today....things will rapidly fill in during the morning and early afternoon with heating, sfc and mid level based showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the trough, before contracting east into a big line of storms over the Mallee/Riverland etc. Nice storm actually formed over the Mid North and shot down the northern ranges this morning near sunrise.

TS cool

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#1473678 - 15/10/2018 09:22 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 102

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#1473686 - 15/10/2018 10:12 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 529
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Recorded 5.5mm until 715am this morning. A few rumbles during the afternoon but nothing substantial.

Was watching a Rex flight banking towards us this morning and you could see it was being pushed rapidly to the west. I reckon the aircraft was pointing ca 45 degrees into the wing.

Also saw CX174 on its way to Hong Kong. It started off at usual takeoff speed as it rose above the trees, then seemed to hit a brick wall at a certain height once it encountered stronger winds. We could see the wings waving about a bit and the pilot would have had a battle on his hands making headway in that howling NE'er. Would have been a bumpy ride with moderate turbulence below 4500'.

Still blowing its guts out here at Kilburn atm.

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#1473689 - 15/10/2018 10:16 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17597
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
just a heads up to city peeps, I have a strong suspicion based on EC and ACCESS that the city wont see much today. So just a warning not to get hopes up.
Def north and east of city should explode.

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#1473692 - 15/10/2018 10:28 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
epthunda Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 387
Loc: Lock South Australia
47mm at Coffin Bay in the last 24hrs incredible falls over there.

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#1473700 - 15/10/2018 11:09 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: teckert]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 195
Loc: Reynella, SA
Yes that appears to be correct. All the good stuff just sliding south down YP and the gulf.

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#1473713 - 15/10/2018 11:55 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1580
Loc: West Richmond
It certainly is a bit windy


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#1473722 - 15/10/2018 12:47 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
PeteM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/05/2012
Posts: 77
Loc: Redwood Park SA
An awful lot of dust is being kicked up north of the city at the moment..

Meanwhile...I'm patiently waiting for some afternoon convection to kick in.

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#1473745 - 15/10/2018 15:11 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
PeteM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/05/2012
Posts: 77
Loc: Redwood Park SA
Storms going off over the eastern flank of the ranges now..

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#1473767 - 15/10/2018 19:29 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Looks like some rain fall in places:

Elliston - 32mm
Gluepot - 3mm
Cleve - 17mm
Turretfield - 7mm
Loxton - 2.4mm
Maitland - 8mm

Looking at the rain radar today I would suggest a few places have done better than that.

So much lightning around Broken Hill, Morgan and the Riverland - me wonders what happened out there today?
Bushfires?

PS: I'll answer that - yep grass fires - https://sapaging.com/jobs?type=.fire


Edited by betsuin (15/10/2018 19:34)

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#1473806 - 16/10/2018 10:07 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1671
Loc: Bridgewater
20mm of rain since midnight. very happy with that

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#1473858 - 16/10/2018 17:50 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2231
Loc: Clare, SA
13mm from this event thus far and still drizzling. Loving the cooler temps and lack of dust.
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#1473865 - 16/10/2018 18:23 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 529
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
0.9mm until 7am today.

Would have liked a bit more for the garden. I don't think much would have amounted from the drizzle that was around this morning.

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#1473893 - 16/10/2018 21:35 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Almost nothing on radar but steady light rain here.
Same as this morning really - I got well wet cycling to work ;-)


Edited by betsuin (16/10/2018 21:35)

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#1473896 - 16/10/2018 22:02 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
roves Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1636
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
1mm for me all up to continue this very poor year and keep the drought rolling on.
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YTD-130mm AVE-260mm

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#1473934 - 17/10/2018 14:56 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2231
Loc: Clare, SA
Looked terrible out there the other day roves. Sky was raining more dust than moisture it seemed.

21mm in Clare. Temp has been with 1 degree of 10 degrees for 24 hours and when it hasn't been drizzling it's been foggy. Only cleared into stratus a couple of hours ago. A taste of winter before summer returns.
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#1473950 - 17/10/2018 18:48 Re: SA trough and cut off low with showers & thunderstorms Oct 14th-15th [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
23mm in my gauge from the last couple of days :-)

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