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#1473553 - 14/10/2018 18:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CeeBee]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
"Itís straight from the right wing handbook."

Yes I agree. It's curious that a paper that is not peer-reviewed is made out to be thus, in order to lend an air of credibility to it.

Actual real peer reviewed papers are summarily dismissed by the same people with claims of "it's pal reviewed" and "they're towing the line" and "they're in it for the grant money" etc, etc.

Interestingly the supervisor of that Phd student who wrote the thesis is Peter Ridd, who was fired from James Cook University for breaching his employment's code of conduct.

https://www.jcu.edu.au/news/releases/2018/may/statement-about-peter-ridd



....the bloke who spoke up against the "science" telling us the reef is doomed. Thanks for reminding us what happens when you question the lefties CB. Lets us all wait until the court case has completed eh, before you further denigrate the bloke.

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#1473558 - 14/10/2018 18:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Back to what we should be discussing rather then reacting to flames.... I see the positive IOD has gone caput!:



Looks like the MJO, despite hanging around the Africa side (and mooted to remain there for at least next 2 weeks by Mikes chart), is not negatively impacting moisture inflow from NW Aus now, and presumable for at least a few more weeks.

This rain accumulating over the most needed areas in Qld/NSW is starting to become significant in a climatological sense imo. I reckon something has shifted.

We've been through drought under weak Nina, now good rains under Nino alert. While the SST is warm Broome-Darwin, and has/is gathered Nth of New Guinea, chances of continued rain over coming month still looks high to me.

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#1473562 - 14/10/2018 18:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Some big moves in our ocean basins shown in this image of SST changes.
Hopefully the troughing pattern we have witness that is hanging over the central of Australia can hangover. It will provide that vital instability ingredient often that can be missing. Death of the quidge has been noted certainly over the month as the high pressure systems have been ducking.
Also on the IOD there is a rapid swing back to neutral but according to the Bureau IOD patterns often break up with NW monsoons, I think the relationship between HPS and IOD is on where HPS strength is consequential to the IOD position due to strength of Easterlies, different to what someone mentioned earlier.
Also maybe some more knowledgable person may be able to explain what that rapid cooling in the NE pacific will mean.

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#1473570 - 14/10/2018 19:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hell of a lot of blue on that chart.

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#1473579 - 14/10/2018 19:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros
While the SST is warm Broome-Darwin, and has/is gathered Nth of New Guinea, chances of continued rain over coming month still looks high to me.


If you look at absolute values instead of anomalies, then every year is warm near Darwin/Broome, and indeed the rest of tropical Autralia. Every year will have good rain. And compared to many places of the world the rain in north Australia is good every year.

But if you start looking at anomalies vs a recent average you realise that some years in that region are cool compared to other recent years, and some years the rains, while good compared to what they could be, are not as good as other recent years. This year is one of them.


Edited by Mike Hauber (14/10/2018 19:48)

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#1473586 - 14/10/2018 19:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Makes me wonder with that extremely strong El Nino back a few years ago, whether it is like a bell ringing.

You dong a bell, it makes a noise straight away. But the noise continues on for some time slowly fading away.

We had a very strong El Nino, are we still feeling the repercussions of it?

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#1473608 - 14/10/2018 21:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Petros
While the SST is warm Broome-Darwin, and has/is gathered Nth of New Guinea, chances of continued rain over coming month still looks high to me.


If you look at absolute values instead of anomalies, then every year is warm near Darwin/Broome, and indeed the rest of tropical Autralia. Every year will have good rain. And compared to many places of the world the rain in north Australia is good every year.

But if you start looking at anomalies vs a recent average you realise that some years in that region are cool compared to other recent years, and some years the rains, while good compared to what they could be, are not as good as other recent years. This year is one of them.


But anomalies are compared only to the last 30 years of records and tell us nothing, except compared to the "average" this year is wet, dry, hot, cold or whatever compared to that 30 year period and ignores the fact that compared to the previous 30 year period current conditions could be quite average, below or well above the norm.
It's a myopic view compared to the vast history of the Earths Climate and can be manipulated to show whatever you like just by moving the perio one chooses to compare against.

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#1473613 - 14/10/2018 21:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
"But anomalies are compared only to the last 30 years of records and tell us nothing..."

Not true Marakai. They are very useful for showing the the subtle variations that may otherwise go un-noticed. ENSO and IOD for example are only revealed by their relatively faint anomalies. Nothing whatsoever to do with "manipulation" and nothing to be alarmed about.

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#1473616 - 14/10/2018 22:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"But anomalies are compared only to the last 30 years of records and tell us nothing..."

Not true Marakai. They are very useful for showing the the subtle variations that may otherwise go un-noticed. ENSO and IOD for example are only revealed by their relatively faint anomalies. Nothing whatsoever to do with "manipulation" and nothing to be alarmed about.


Subtle variations in 30 year records which are homogenized/adjusted/extrapolated and then apparently compared with shifts of tenths of a degree? what is that supposed to tell us ?


Edited by marakai (14/10/2018 22:21)

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#1473621 - 14/10/2018 22:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Whether we have an el nino forming, whether the SAM is in a positive phase, whether there is another consecutive record hot year. How else are you going to find out those things?


Edited by Delta-T (14/10/2018 22:28)

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#1473623 - 14/10/2018 22:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
"...tenths of a degree? what is that supposed to tell us ?"

How about 10 or 12 compared to a 60 year average.



Arctic temperature anomaly north of 80 degree from here .
Its not manipulation, its' just a way to flag something odd.


Edited by Delta-T (14/10/2018 22:44)

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#1473636 - 14/10/2018 23:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
How many reliable temperature sensors were in the Arctic 60 years ago and how far are the current reliable ones extrapolated now?
Edited to add: And how much adjustment has that data had from raw?


Edited by marakai (14/10/2018 23:25)

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#1473641 - 14/10/2018 23:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Uh huh, because it's not 110% accurate to the nearest 3 decimal points we should just throw it in the bin?

The green average line is probably fairly accurate given such a long record - accurate enough for the purpose of highlighting the anomalies of recent years, surely?

Or is any such anomaly just a give-away of manipulation and hence an agenda?


Edited by Delta-T (14/10/2018 23:42)

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#1473650 - 15/10/2018 01:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Uh huh, because it's not 110% accurate to the nearest 3 decimal points we should just throw it in the bin?

The green average line is probably fairly accurate given such a long record - accurate enough for the purpose of highlighting the anomalies of recent years, surely?

Or is any such anomaly just a give-away of manipulation and hence an agenda?


It's called Science Delta, and I asked for a reason. There is no long term record is there? There are no reliable long term sensors and the current record is fubar due to adjustments.
Ergo: Anomaly's are useless figments of info for predictive purposes.

You also failed to answer any of the questions I asked above as well. How many sensors how long a record, how far are the extrapolations etc, a mere chart is a long way from any supportive information regards to the above. What does the green line mean to Science if it's basis is just fairly accurate ?


Edited by marakai (15/10/2018 01:09)

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#1473652 - 15/10/2018 01:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"...tenths of a degree? what is that supposed to tell us ?"

How about 10 or 12 compared to a 60 year average.



Arctic temperature anomaly north of 80 degree from here .
Its not manipulation, its' just a way to flag something odd.


BTW your chart is in K not C.

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#1473655 - 15/10/2018 01:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Lol just had to check.

ECMWF is financed principally by contributions from its 34 Member and Co-operating States, which in 2014 totalled £42.0 million out of the Centreís funding of £54.5 million (net of internal tax). Revenue from sales of data and products provided additional income of £4.7 million, while funding of £7.7 million from external organisations supported research and the other goals of the Centre. ECMWF continued to invest in its staff, infrastructure and systems to provide the highest-quality products to its Member and Co-operating States.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/annual-report-2014/european-investment-ecmwf

Finance

In 2016, 55% of ECMWFís annual budget of £78.5 million was funded by contributions from the Member and Co-operating States, according to a scale based on their gross national income. Significant funding is also provided from externally funded projects and from the sale of forecast and data products.
The sponsorship department in the UK Government for ECMWF is the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/key-facts-and-figures


The European Commissionís Horizon 2020 funding framework has allocated significant resources in support of polar prediction research. At present, there are three major Horizon 2020 projects (APPLICATE, BLUE ACTION and INTAROS) contributing to PPP and YOPP with a total funding of Ä32.5 million over four years.

ECMWF contributes to polar prediction activities in several ways. For example, we are one of the main partners in APPLICATE and a partner in other relevant H2020 projects. ECMWF is also contributing to APPLICATE and YOPP with an open data portal providing ECMWF analyses and coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice forecasts from 2017 to 2019 and by providing model data at key observational sites (through the main YOPP data portal). The ECMWF YOPP dataset contains both regular forecast output and tendencies from the different physical processes, which are not usually stored. This global dataset is also highly relevant for other communities focusing on non-polar aspects of weather and climate, continuing the heritage of the ECMWF dataset released in support of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC).

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-cen...g-polar-regions

Also don't see any 12C changes anywhere on here https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/file..._-_Figure_3.svg


Edited by marakai (15/10/2018 01:55)

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#1473668 - 15/10/2018 08:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Amazing how on that graph the green line is quite smooth while the red jumps around a bit...

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#1473687 - 15/10/2018 10:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Remembering that the flat blue line represents freezing point.

The biggest volatility seems to be in mid-winter when the temperature varies from very cold to extremely cold.

With the paucity of measuring stations in that part of the world (and the few that are exposed to potential unintended human interference) I wouldn't express too much confidence in the quality of those measurements.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1473688 - 15/10/2018 10:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
"BTW your chart is in K not C."

"Amazing how on that graph the green line is quite smooth while the red jumps around a bit..."

Bin it?

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#1473691 - 15/10/2018 10:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
"The biggest volatility seems to be in mid-winter when the temperature varies from very cold to extremely cold."

That determines 'Freezing Degree Days' and that determines ice thickness for the next thaw.

The extent of which is probably the largest "Climate Driver" of all, but if we start discussing why we're venturing into forbidden territory...

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