Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5 >
Topic Options
#1474125 - 19/10/2018 13:04 Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
All models are showing a stormy Saturday in eastern NSW as a trough creeps north. Things look like firing up in the afternoon with more discrete storms at first, with indications of them becoming embedded in general raininess later. A BoM source I know has indicated that the trough may stall around the central part of the coast - if it does that Saturday night into Sunday might be very wet indeed in places like Sydney and the Illawarra.

Let the meteorological prognostications commence!


Edited by Seabreeze (20/10/2018 11:49)
Edit Reason: added year

Top
#1474140 - 19/10/2018 16:44 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Rain totals upped for the weekend for the metro. Up to 65 mm's.
Also the words "possibly severe" relating to thunderstorms for tomorrow.

Top
#1474141 - 19/10/2018 16:49 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Floodhunta
All models are showing a stormy Saturday in eastern NSW as a trough creeps north. Things look like firing up in the afternoon with more discrete storms at first, with indications of them becoming embedded in general raininess later. A BoM source I know has indicated that the trough may stall around the central part of the coast - if it does that Saturday night into Sunday might be very wet indeed in places like Sydney and the Illawarra.

Let the meteorological prognostications commence!


Hereís hoping

Top
#1474142 - 19/10/2018 16:51 Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
As been noted, decent trough moving east should tap into abundant warm moister air and explode - showers and storms likely for a lot of NSW, with severe storms (heavy rain, hail and straight line winds) possible.

Top
#1474143 - 19/10/2018 16:56 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Started itís own topic smile

Top
#1474144 - 19/10/2018 17:14 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The weather looks interesting over the next few days. Tomorrow might be the classic hot Summer Day (32 out West) with a big storm to finish it.

Forecast rainfall totals (mm, rounded) are:

Sydney: 40 - 85
Penrith : 35 - 85
N'Castle: 20 - 45
W'gong: 40 - 85
B'hurst: 15 - 30

The GFS shows the low moving away to the South earlier, which means storms and rain might clear Sydney bu Monday morning. That would suit me better (outdoor plans) but the weather will do whatever it's going to do.


Edited by Steve777 (19/10/2018 17:16)

Top
#1474145 - 19/10/2018 17:16 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Oops sorry FH my bad! Lol

Storm bird rally going nuts this arvo, so itís been right every time this month. Bring on a slow moving severe storm pliz


Edited by Kino (19/10/2018 17:17)

Top
#1474147 - 19/10/2018 18:04 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2855
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Latest EC had completely killed the rain for Sunday!
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1474148 - 19/10/2018 18:20 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Lets just wait and see....

Meanwhile

4th time lucky 😡😡😡


Edited by Kino (19/10/2018 18:23)

Top
#1474157 - 19/10/2018 22:27 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
alby_14 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: Bathurst, NSW
Do you have the link for the map above Kino? I've deleted mine and stuffed if I can find the web page courtesy of google, BoM etc

Top
#1474158 - 19/10/2018 22:31 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
The map is posted onto their BOM NSW twitter account and the BOM Facebook page hopefully you have some social media.
Also on this map it's not that often this large of an area is given severe thunderstorms.

Top
#1474159 - 19/10/2018 22:50 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: alby_14]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: alby_14
Do you have the link for the map above Kino? I've deleted mine and stuffed if I can find the web page courtesy of google, BoM etc


Got it off their Twitter smile

Top
#1474160 - 19/10/2018 22:57 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
alby_14 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: Bathurst, NSW
Cheers. It used to be available on their web page, must be gone now which is probably why searching for it no longer works lol


Edited by alby_14 (19/10/2018 22:57)

Top
#1474163 - 20/10/2018 00:52 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8597
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Will be a corker of a storm day because
1) Got some unstable accas passing over already
2) I'm stuck at work all day laugh

Good luck to those chasing.

Top
#1474165 - 20/10/2018 04:37 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jaeger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 93
Loc: Canberra/Brisbane
http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2018101912:2018102003:cbr:ts:null:0#sc

Top
#1474166 - 20/10/2018 06:03 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
The old saying red sky in the morning, shepards/sailors warning could not be more true today. It will be a big storm day.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474170 - 20/10/2018 07:25 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
lightning chaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/06/2007
Posts: 519
Loc: nowra NSW
Plenty of instability around later today. Storms will be fast moving from north west to south east. I doubt there will be anything too photogenic due to several factors, 1) lack of turning winds for supercells
2) weak cap meaning so many storms form it will rapidly turn cluttered and probably thundery rain band style
3) anvil rain spreading ahead of storms will make photography difficult.

I see the main threat as damaging winds. Itís hard to picture large hail with a saturated atmosphere. Heavy rainfall is very likely too but rapid storm motion should limit accumulation.
_________________________


http://www.youtube.com/user/lightningchaser111 - storm and mountain biking videos

Top
#1474175 - 20/10/2018 08:10 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2855
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Not convinced today will be anything special. EC has completely lost interest in tomorrow and GFS seems to be heading that way too. Now we just wait and see. 😁


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (20/10/2018 08:11)
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1474190 - 20/10/2018 09:44 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 72
Loc: Bowral
Lifted index values west of the ranges are in the region of -9 to -10... almost off the charts on GFS Stormcast. Any thunderstorms that do pop up in that area will have plenty of updraft strength. Stormcast also has SWEAT indexes of up to 440, and with a bit of research, it says anything below 400 holds enough potential for tornadoes. I know its not an exact science but there is obviously enough ingredients today for some severe storms!

Top
#1474192 - 20/10/2018 10:22 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 72
Loc: Bowral
**anything above 400 holds enough potential for tornadoes

Top
Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5 >


Who's Online
2 registered (kathrynsview, 1 invisible), 52 Guests and 5 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1502889 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image