Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5 >
Topic Options
#1474125 - 19/10/2018 13:04 Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 630
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
All models are showing a stormy Saturday in eastern NSW as a trough creeps north. Things look like firing up in the afternoon with more discrete storms at first, with indications of them becoming embedded in general raininess later. A BoM source I know has indicated that the trough may stall around the central part of the coast - if it does that Saturday night into Sunday might be very wet indeed in places like Sydney and the Illawarra.

Let the meteorological prognostications commence!


Edited by Seabreeze (20/10/2018 11:49)
Edit Reason: added year

Top
#1474140 - 19/10/2018 16:44 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Rain totals upped for the weekend for the metro. Up to 65 mm's.
Also the words "possibly severe" relating to thunderstorms for tomorrow.

Top
#1474141 - 19/10/2018 16:49 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Floodhunta
All models are showing a stormy Saturday in eastern NSW as a trough creeps north. Things look like firing up in the afternoon with more discrete storms at first, with indications of them becoming embedded in general raininess later. A BoM source I know has indicated that the trough may stall around the central part of the coast - if it does that Saturday night into Sunday might be very wet indeed in places like Sydney and the Illawarra.

Let the meteorological prognostications commence!


Hereís hoping

Top
#1474142 - 19/10/2018 16:51 Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
As been noted, decent trough moving east should tap into abundant warm moister air and explode - showers and storms likely for a lot of NSW, with severe storms (heavy rain, hail and straight line winds) possible.

Top
#1474143 - 19/10/2018 16:56 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Started itís own topic smile

Top
#1474144 - 19/10/2018 17:14 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The weather looks interesting over the next few days. Tomorrow might be the classic hot Summer Day (32 out West) with a big storm to finish it.

Forecast rainfall totals (mm, rounded) are:

Sydney: 40 - 85
Penrith : 35 - 85
N'Castle: 20 - 45
W'gong: 40 - 85
B'hurst: 15 - 30

The GFS shows the low moving away to the South earlier, which means storms and rain might clear Sydney bu Monday morning. That would suit me better (outdoor plans) but the weather will do whatever it's going to do.


Edited by Steve777 (19/10/2018 17:16)

Top
#1474145 - 19/10/2018 17:16 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Oops sorry FH my bad! Lol

Storm bird rally going nuts this arvo, so itís been right every time this month. Bring on a slow moving severe storm pliz


Edited by Kino (19/10/2018 17:17)

Top
#1474147 - 19/10/2018 18:04 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2855
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Latest EC had completely killed the rain for Sunday!
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1474148 - 19/10/2018 18:20 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Lets just wait and see....

Meanwhile

4th time lucky 😡😡😡


Edited by Kino (19/10/2018 18:23)

Top
#1474157 - 19/10/2018 22:27 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
alby_14 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: Bathurst, NSW
Do you have the link for the map above Kino? I've deleted mine and stuffed if I can find the web page courtesy of google, BoM etc

Top
#1474158 - 19/10/2018 22:31 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
The map is posted onto their BOM NSW twitter account and the BOM Facebook page hopefully you have some social media.
Also on this map it's not that often this large of an area is given severe thunderstorms.

Top
#1474159 - 19/10/2018 22:50 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: alby_14]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: alby_14
Do you have the link for the map above Kino? I've deleted mine and stuffed if I can find the web page courtesy of google, BoM etc


Got it off their Twitter smile

Top
#1474160 - 19/10/2018 22:57 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
alby_14 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2005
Posts: 294
Loc: Bathurst, NSW
Cheers. It used to be available on their web page, must be gone now which is probably why searching for it no longer works lol


Edited by alby_14 (19/10/2018 22:57)

Top
#1474163 - 20/10/2018 00:52 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8597
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Will be a corker of a storm day because
1) Got some unstable accas passing over already
2) I'm stuck at work all day laugh

Good luck to those chasing.

Top
#1474165 - 20/10/2018 04:37 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jaeger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 93
Loc: Canberra/Brisbane
http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2018101912:2018102003:cbr:ts:null:0#sc

Top
#1474166 - 20/10/2018 06:03 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
The old saying red sky in the morning, shepards/sailors warning could not be more true today. It will be a big storm day.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474170 - 20/10/2018 07:25 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
lightning chaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/06/2007
Posts: 519
Loc: nowra NSW
Plenty of instability around later today. Storms will be fast moving from north west to south east. I doubt there will be anything too photogenic due to several factors, 1) lack of turning winds for supercells
2) weak cap meaning so many storms form it will rapidly turn cluttered and probably thundery rain band style
3) anvil rain spreading ahead of storms will make photography difficult.

I see the main threat as damaging winds. Itís hard to picture large hail with a saturated atmosphere. Heavy rainfall is very likely too but rapid storm motion should limit accumulation.
_________________________


http://www.youtube.com/user/lightningchaser111 - storm and mountain biking videos

Top
#1474175 - 20/10/2018 08:10 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2855
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Not convinced today will be anything special. EC has completely lost interest in tomorrow and GFS seems to be heading that way too. Now we just wait and see. 😁


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (20/10/2018 08:11)
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1474190 - 20/10/2018 09:44 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 72
Loc: Bowral
Lifted index values west of the ranges are in the region of -9 to -10... almost off the charts on GFS Stormcast. Any thunderstorms that do pop up in that area will have plenty of updraft strength. Stormcast also has SWEAT indexes of up to 440, and with a bit of research, it says anything below 400 holds enough potential for tornadoes. I know its not an exact science but there is obviously enough ingredients today for some severe storms!

Top
#1474192 - 20/10/2018 10:22 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 72
Loc: Bowral
**anything above 400 holds enough potential for tornadoes

Top
#1474193 - 20/10/2018 10:28 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Fairly cloudy here with sunlight filtered through high cloud. Judging by the satellite picture it looks like it will remain mostly cloudy here. The sea breeze is firmly established near the coast. It doesn't seem like a day with much storm potential but we shall see.

Yesterday was the first dry day at Sydney OH after a run of 9 days with recorded rain and only the second dry day in the last 17.


Edited by Steve777 (20/10/2018 10:36)

Top
#1474194 - 20/10/2018 10:36 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 979
Loc: Cammeray
I feel like today will end up in an embedded thundery shower mess. Just not enough clear sky and heating IMO

Top
#1474195 - 20/10/2018 10:42 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Storms generate from lift - whether convection or advection. Today looks like advection - colder air mass forcing warmer air to rise. Plenty of fuel ahead of the trough/front.


Edited by Kino (20/10/2018 10:43)

Top
#1474198 - 20/10/2018 11:44 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
Originally Posted By: Kino
Storms generate from lift - whether convection or advection. Today looks like advection - colder air mass forcing warmer air to rise. Plenty of fuel ahead of the trough/front.


And there will be 3 points of lift later on with the westerly on the ranges colliding with the NE sea breeze and then the southerly also moving up the coast. I agree with above comments that the storms will be messy, but you would expect pretty severe storms given that the forecasts do not often say 'storms likely, possibly severe'.

There's already a decent line of storms west of Canberra moving quite rapidly which is a good sign.


Edited by Wave Rider (20/10/2018 11:47)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474202 - 20/10/2018 12:12 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2855
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Oh, a juicy triple point WR.

I'm up at Wyoming mowing the lawn today, and let me tell you the sweat is POURING off me!

Feels more like Feb than October here.



Edited by CoastalStorm22 (20/10/2018 12:14)
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1474203 - 20/10/2018 12:21 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 72
Loc: Bowral
Eastern suburbs of Canberra and Queanbeyan just took a direct hit from a black cored cell, and another one just about to go through captains flat which literally went from nothing to black in the space of 12 minutes on radar


Edited by Snowmaker (20/10/2018 12:23)

Top
#1474204 - 20/10/2018 12:25 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 710
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
The Williamtown sounding still has a very unstable atmosphere but capped below the 700hpa level. Also not much sheer. This will need to change if we are to get a storm.

Top
#1474205 - 20/10/2018 12:45 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Suns out here and accas everywhere.

Top
#1474206 - 20/10/2018 13:03 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
The Williamtown sounding still has a very unstable atmosphere but capped below the 700hpa level. Also not much sheer. This will need to change if we are to get a storm.


Not much use when the instability is coming from the west tho?

Top
#1474208 - 20/10/2018 13:22 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 710
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
The Wagga one looks good.

Top
#1474209 - 20/10/2018 13:27 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
That's very good numbers considering Wagga's position, and the sounding was taken at 10am. With LI of -7.1c and Precipitable Water at 34.4mm

Top
#1474210 - 20/10/2018 13:36 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 484
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Black cell just popped near Mulgoa.

Top
#1474211 - 20/10/2018 13:36 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
First storm of the day in the Sydney Basin popping up just east of Warragamba Dam. Rapid development there.

Sidney got in first lol


Edited by Wave Rider (20/10/2018 13:37)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474212 - 20/10/2018 13:37 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Farmer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/06/2004
Posts: 560
Got hammered here by a big storm
20mm in 10 minutes
_________________________
-----------Near Sutton, NSW

Top
#1474220 - 20/10/2018 14:03 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Starting to look decent to our west as cells get more organised and tap into the warm moist air ahead.

Top
#1474224 - 20/10/2018 14:14 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 976
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
The only sign of any tower's is now quickly growing in the distance to my east. To the west it's all just high cloud with poor visibility of any tower's.

Towers to my east seem to be growing fairly quickly;


Looking to my WNW:







Edited by Perfect Storm (20/10/2018 14:24)
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

Top
#1474227 - 20/10/2018 14:35 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 484
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Radar looks good if ur not from sydney. That gap between orange and cowra better fill up.

Top
#1474228 - 20/10/2018 14:36 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 484
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
First storm of the day in the Sydney Basin popping up just east of Warragamba Dam. Rapid development there.

Sidney got in first lol


haha it fell before it stood. Little guy didn't stand a chance.

Top
#1474229 - 20/10/2018 14:45 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
Yes its looking good for Kino, Snowmaker, Floodhunta and I later on though. Very big fast moving mass near Taralga right now.

However I'm not liking the fact that the southern highlands is warmer than here. We really need the sea breeze on top of the escarpment, maybe it is already hitting Robertson.


Edited by Wave Rider (20/10/2018 14:47)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474231 - 20/10/2018 14:46 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Tell you what, its looking good for Kino, Snowmaker, Floodhunta and I later on though. Very big fast moving mass near Taralga right now.


Fingers crossed, we missed out the other day so maybe our turn?

Top
#1474232 - 20/10/2018 14:48 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
Yeah hopefully we get something, we certainly should. I got a storm at home on Thursday, but I wasn't there.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474233 - 20/10/2018 14:55 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
More storms are forming behind the initial storm front, looks like the advection is really occurring there.
Also it's really nice to see some North-West moisture coming into this system, it's quite nice to see such rampant drops with the Positive IOD conditions persisting in the Indian Ocean.


Top
#1474234 - 20/10/2018 15:07 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 72
Loc: Bowral
Yes some more nice storms forming behind the main front. Here's hoping WR! Should just clip the northern edge of that line

Top
#1474235 - 20/10/2018 15:08 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 976
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Found a high point, walked up to the top of a bridge to get a better view. High cloud starting to thin a bit to my west to North west. Lots of towers going up in the distance towards to edges of the metro to the west of this thinning cloud getting one or two chunky in the distance. P


Edited by Perfect Storm (20/10/2018 15:17)
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would be full of highs and lows.

Top
#1474237 - 20/10/2018 15:29 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 484
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
BoM needs to update the STW. Storms are now pushing to Jervis bay/Bowral. Meanwhile the STW from more than 2 hours ago extends to around Goulburn area.

Top
#1474238 - 20/10/2018 15:34 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Sidney]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 72
Loc: Bowral
Originally Posted By: Sidney
BoM needs to update the STW. Storms are now pushing to Jervis bay/Bowral. Meanwhile the STW from more than 2 hours ago extends to around Goulburn area.


Also interesting to see that they cancelled the warning for monaro, South Coast and ACT. Still a few strong cells popping up down there.

Nice storm about to hit me now. Getting very windy

Top
#1474239 - 20/10/2018 15:38 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
A black cored monster is being born behind the 'gap'of the initial storm front. Interestingly looking at the sky is mainly clear to my west a solid anvil has formed to my South-West.

Top
#1474240 - 20/10/2018 15:39 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 484
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Gap starting to fill up now. with tiny cells forming within it.

Top
#1474241 - 20/10/2018 15:55 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
As usual itís breaking up 🙄 better get itís act together

Top
#1474242 - 20/10/2018 16:05 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Almost perfect conditions here for storms 28.9 degrees and a dew point of 18.1. Hopefully the cold Maritime layer doesn't make it this west. With Bellambi at 18.7 degrees.

Top
#1474243 - 20/10/2018 16:12 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Doesnít seem to be hurting Gerringong - theyíre getting smashed.

Top
#1474244 - 20/10/2018 16:20 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 904
Loc: Glenorie NSW
It was a disappointing morning and early arvo with high cloud and poor vis, but high cloud broke out west and overhead an hour ago and it heated up quickly and started firing up on the ranges. Currently booming away in the distance with new cells going up fast

Top
#1474245 - 20/10/2018 16:25 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1418
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
Once again, nothing.

Top
#1474246 - 20/10/2018 16:28 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 484
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
7 News has reported that someone has died after being struck by lightning near Dubbo today. So unfortunate RIP.


Edited by Sidney (20/10/2018 16:28)

Top
#1474247 - 20/10/2018 16:36 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
Pretty poor lightning rate with these storms, I've seen 2 flangs in about 15 minutes. Some pretty interesting cloud features to the east though.

That is really unfortunate about that person frown


Edited by Wave Rider (20/10/2018 16:37)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474248 - 20/10/2018 16:39 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Towers going up to the north and west of here and even almost overhead. It's looking more solidly black further west, so these towers are growing ahead of the main storm.
Shouldn't be long now.
I agree, these storms aren't very lightning active. Not like they are further west and north west.

Top
#1474249 - 20/10/2018 16:39 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been extended to the coast from about The Entrance to Ulladulla (LARGE HAILSTONES, HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS). There's a gap in the clouds over Sydney now to allow a bit of heating. The seabreeze is active in the East, the wind feels almost cool here.

The radar is filling up to the West of the metro area, with cells near Colo Heights and in the Blue Mountains.

It looks like most of the falls out West were just a couple of millimetres. There are a couple of isolated higher falls: 26 mm in Coonamble seems to be the highest.

EDIT: just checked the new Sydney forecast. Storms still on for tonight but tomorrow's rain has been wound back to 5-20 mm. Monday's rain had been cancelled.


Edited by Steve777 (20/10/2018 16:46)

Top
#1474250 - 20/10/2018 16:39 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 904
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Developing right overhead now. Very explosive...

Top
#1474251 - 20/10/2018 16:45 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Sidney]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Sidney
7 News has reported that someone has died after being struck by lightning near Dubbo today. So unfortunate RIP.


Apparently he was standing out in the middle of a racecourse....in the middle of a storm. Gee that's smart.

Top
#1474253 - 20/10/2018 16:51 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Quagmelson]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Quagmelson
Developing right overhead now. Very explosive...


Yes, You can actually see the towers rising in real time. Explosive indeed.

Top
#1474254 - 20/10/2018 16:54 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 904
Loc: Glenorie NSW
About to score a direct hit here Homer, its 2 ridges over lightning not frequent but the odd powerful one. Actually its picking up... .

Top
#1474256 - 20/10/2018 17:15 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Phil1983 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/01/2010
Posts: 116
Loc: Moss Vale, NSW

The half-developed shelf cloud that passed over Wollongong an hour ago. Think this was the northern tip of that southern cell


Edited by Phil1983 (20/10/2018 17:18)

Top
#1474257 - 20/10/2018 17:16 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 484
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Structure here is starting to look amazing. Some Insane CG's as well.

Top
#1474258 - 20/10/2018 17:20 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Picture perfect approaching shelf-cloud, what a start to the storm season it has been right from early September.

Top
#1474259 - 20/10/2018 17:21 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
One of those storms is heading down the North Shore line towards me. Getting distant rumbles.

Top
#1474260 - 20/10/2018 17:29 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Torrential rain now with flangs everywhere. Also, very gusty. No hail yet.
Agreed A2A. This has been a fantastic start to the storm season.


Edited by Homer (20/10/2018 17:30)

Top
#1474261 - 20/10/2018 17:32 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 484
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
bit of rain and wind and its over for now nothing too intense here.

Top
#1474262 - 20/10/2018 17:33 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 979
Loc: Cammeray
Plenty of CGs visible to my NW and if I squint there's a tinge of green to the clouds.

Top
#1474263 - 20/10/2018 17:34 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Lightning tracker has lit up like a Christmas tree.
It has become absolutely wild here now!! Very dark. Howling wind and torrential rain. Constant rumbles and close flangs. Best storm for a long time.

Top
#1474264 - 20/10/2018 17:36 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Looking good here. Bit of a shelf gloud with that greenish tinge. Branched lightning, lots of rumbles. No rain yet.

Top
#1474266 - 20/10/2018 17:50 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 57
A few pea sized pellets of hail in West Ryde now, but it has passed fo the moment

Top
#1474268 - 20/10/2018 18:01 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Lots of cracks, rolls and rumbles, moderately lightning-active, a couple of CGs. Light to moderate rain but the main band hasn't reached here yet.

Sydney Olympic Park has received 10 mm in half an hour.

EDIT:
Sydney Airport 18 mm in under 10 minutes.
Sydney OH 10 mm in 15 minutes


Edited by Steve777 (20/10/2018 18:09)

Top
#1474269 - 20/10/2018 18:09 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 979
Loc: Cammeray
Not that heavy here. Has turned into a bit of a blob here. Looked better defined around the Airport however

Top
#1474271 - 20/10/2018 18:12 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 904
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Recieved 15mm here in 20mins. Including 11mm in 8mins. About 5-6 really nice flangs. No hail however. One really impressive gust before the heaviest rain hit. Guestimate about 90-100kph briefly. Green tinge in shelfie just west of here too, so some ice wouldve fallen in maroota st forest

Top
#1474274 - 20/10/2018 18:21 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
dknever Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/11/2016
Posts: 56
Loc: Liverpool, NSW
that did not last long at all

Top
#1474275 - 20/10/2018 18:32 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Quagmelson]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Quagmelson
Recieved 15mm here in 20mins. Including 11mm in 8mins. About 5-6 really nice flangs. No hail however. One really impressive gust before the heaviest rain hit. Guestimate about 90-100kph briefly. Green tinge in shelfie just west of here too, so some ice wouldve fallen in maroota st forest


Would have had the same here Quagy.
Storm lasted about an hour. 2 periods of torrential rain. The initial storm front was wild. After that, it was just very heavy constant rain, with lightning every 2 - 3 seconds. There was a period of about 25 minutes where there wasn't a second that I could not hear thunder.
After my earlier comment replying to WR about how lightning inactive the storms appeared, it just exploded.

Raining steadily still atm, and it looks like we're in for a period of just rain now for an hour or so. Could have another 5 mm's. I just heard a further rumble to the west, although I don't expect anything like earlier.

Top
#1474276 - 20/10/2018 18:35 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 904
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Good stuff Homer, was thinking how amazing penrith mustve been the other night, cos was wild here too, but their rain rate was *2.5!. Rain is increasing here again and even had 4 anvil crawler type valley filling rumbles last 10 mins

Top
#1474277 - 20/10/2018 18:37 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ripped off here, again, but hoping the return round makes up

Top
#1474279 - 20/10/2018 18:54 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 72
Loc: Bowral
Can we just admire what happened to that solid rain band just before it hit Bowral? laugh Would have been some more rain for you too down in the Gong Kino!

Top
#1474281 - 20/10/2018 19:24 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1783
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Below, is what it looked like here on my weathercam but it slipped just south GringsRain would have got pounded,I think.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1474285 - 20/10/2018 19:49 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
That was a nice little storm. The rain band seemed to split either side of me as it arrived, so Chatswood only got 5 mm compared to 12 in the City and 27 at Hornsby. I took some pictures of the shelf cloud but it was a bit messy and they didn't come out. However, here's a screen shot from the Potts Point weather cam (contrast and colour enhanced):



Here is the cam: Potts Point Cam

Here's a CG I caught as the storm approached, a frame in an iPhone video. Again, contrast and colour enhanced:



It would have been a few km distant.

Top
#1474287 - 20/10/2018 20:09 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Andrew-A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 175
Loc: Copacabana NSW
Looked like a war approaching me but broke up over head. I recon I got 6-10mm not going to check.

Top
#1474289 - 20/10/2018 21:28 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 615
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
I was at Chipping Norton when the storm front passed through around 5:30pm, it was a white out for a short while with some strong westerly winds, but as quick as it came it left just as quick, back home all I got to show for it was 6mm in the gauge. Now up to 161mm for October.

Top
#1474290 - 20/10/2018 22:14 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Thatís the end of any real weather now til end of this week. Next low combo looks decent for another stormy period.

Top
#1474291 - 20/10/2018 22:18 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Andrew-A]
Andrew-A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 175
Loc: Copacabana NSW
Originally Posted By: Andrew-A
Looked like a war approaching me but broke up over head. I recon I got 6-10mm not going to check.

I take back my negative attitude, was just totalling this October to date. Iv have had approx 303mm give or take a couple.
130mm of that falling in 6 hours on the 13th. Thanks for the fish! 😊

Top
#1474295 - 21/10/2018 00:23 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
Originally Posted By: Kino
Thatís the end of any real weather now til end of this week. Next low combo looks decent for another stormy period.


A massive 0.2mm downpour at Albion Park from these storms. It was pretty impressive in the Gong though which is where I ended up.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474296 - 21/10/2018 00:34 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8597
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
If anyone can clarify with some statistics, but I feel like the metro has had more severe storms in the past month than the whole last season and it's not even November. Certainly up there with some of the most active starts to a season

Top
#1474297 - 21/10/2018 00:38 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 979
Loc: Cammeray
A strange amendment to the Sydney forecast just before 10pm calls for a possible storm later tonight. Didnít expect that

Top
#1474299 - 21/10/2018 01:24 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Jimi]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Jimi
A strange amendment to the Sydney forecast just before 10pm calls for a possible storm later tonight. Didnít expect that


There's a good reason you didn't expect it. Neither did anyone else, including mother nature.
What a strange update that was.

Top
#1474304 - 21/10/2018 07:53 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 979
Loc: Cammeray
Todayís rain has almost completely vanished now as well

Top
#1474311 - 21/10/2018 09:03 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Today looks like it will be just your typical cool, cloudy post-Southerly day, maybe with a light coastal shower or two. The main cloud band is about to clear the coast, leaving marine layer behind it. Hopefully it will brighten up a bit.

Certainly the storm season is off to a flying start. I've noted 7 storms here so far:
Sept 7, 26, 28
Oct 10, 17, 18, 20.

Two of them were marginal here and none were severe, although severe storms have struck the metro and a number of warnings have been issued.


Edited by Steve777 (21/10/2018 09:03)

Top
#1474314 - 21/10/2018 09:54 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
Nice pics btw Steve
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1474384 - 21/10/2018 16:25 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1202
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Looks like we got 11.2mm of rain from the storm and downpour last night, not bad for a brief storm.
Has stayed damp today on the ground, but Nil rain recorded since 9am.

Top
#1474436 - 21/10/2018 22:17 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ConM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 160
Loc: Parramatta
Nice shots there Steve.

When the gust front rolled through Parramatta it produced some decent staccato bolts on the leading edge,

DSC_3426 by Con Marathos, on Flickr

Top
#1474443 - 21/10/2018 23:32 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8597
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Awesome shot ConM. Just wondering how you take lightning pics during day time?

Top
#1474454 - 22/10/2018 09:51 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Myself and MichalK from Nowra chased Saturday. We targeted Wellington and arrived there as the first CG's started west of town. Our first decent storm was on a deserted road 5kms outside Guerie, where we had a lovely high based storm that put out lots of lightning (will link video tonight). The thunder was constant and no traffic noise. Sadly this was also the same town that the man was killed by lightning. This storm may have become severe for a while, but eventually tracked into poor chase country east of the Mitchell Hwy. Chasing these storms SE would have been a mistake too as you will have lost the ability to stay ahead of the line.

Storms were developing smack on trough line and started as mid-level showers, but as they become stronger lower cloud features developed. We encountered a briefly severe storm about 30kms west of Dunedoo. This one had a small black core slightly ahead of the larger squall line, and pushed down between Gulgong and Mudgee, I dare say it had hail.

However we could not chase that one any further due to no road options and a desire to keep Liverpool Plains in target. When we got to the turn off near Coolah for the Liverpool Plains we both looked at the amount of anvil that had pushed 100kms out from the linear line near Coonamble and called that option off. A very wise move in hindsight.

We continued to be chased by storms all the way down the Golden Hwy. Red dust being lifted at Merriwa - this was the most drought affected area we saw - still bare paddocks.

Ended the day in Maitland with a CG barrage on twilight.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

Top
#1474458 - 22/10/2018 10:54 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I liked your video Ozthunder, please keep it up.

Top
#1474464 - 22/10/2018 17:15 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: Floodhunta]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Link to my video of the storms chased from Guerie (near Dubbo) to Maitland. Turn up volume as first few minutes (after some wind noise) has lovely thunder with no car or wind noise. Best to watch in HD on YT site.



Edited by ozthunder (22/10/2018 17:16)
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

Top
#1474466 - 22/10/2018 17:17 Re: Storms and Rain - Eastern NSW 20-22 October 2018 [Re: ozthunder]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 118
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Love your storm videos, Ozthunder grin

Always been a subscriber.
_________________________
ďBelow 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.Ē

Top
Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 47 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1502889 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image