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#1474149 - 19/10/2018 19:04 Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This latest GFS run now agrees with this mornings EC & AccG models that the next decent potential rain event for Vic might be on our doorstep by next weekend?:




....time will tell.

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#1474151 - 19/10/2018 19:35 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Surprise me that SE Australia getting tricky wet El Niņo and Northern Country below nighttime temperatures below 10c to 4c until next week .

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#1474270 - 20/10/2018 18:11 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
24 hrs later and GFS holds firm at this early stage:



IF we get some decent (10mm+) rain into N Central Gippsland with this, it would be a starter for a "spring break?" conversation.

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#1474324 - 21/10/2018 12:25 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Next system Chart GFS has upgraded to become very heavy wet weekend looks interesting.

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#1474410 - 21/10/2018 18:22 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....yep CA, and the next run after still looks very interesting:



Early days, but nice to see conditions conjucent to rainfall in Aus SE seemingly have returned.

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#1474413 - 21/10/2018 18:45 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
yep certainly something brewing next weekend, high confidence from GFS and ACCESS however EC's most recent runs is keeping the system north of Victoria delivering little rain to Victoria, quite odd considering EC has imo a tendency to over state rainfall.
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#1474424 - 21/10/2018 19:59 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
EC


ACCESS

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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1474455 - 22/10/2018 10:20 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Similar this morning Logansi, GFS and AccG still keen, but EC not, here's AccG (GFS similar):


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#1474463 - 22/10/2018 15:45 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Just had a quick look at the latest GFS run, hasn't updated on WZ yet but it seems to be trending towards what EC is expecting.

Just my laymans observation but it seems to largely depend of the strength of 2 highs 1 sitting in the Tasman sea and 1 around Perth, EC expects them to be stronger and linked by a ridge preventing a southerly track of the low.


Edited by logansi (22/10/2018 15:46)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1474475 - 22/10/2018 17:57 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep agree Logansi, EC never did want a closed low system to develop in the west for several runs, GFS below still keeps one together by the time it arrives in SE Aus - but a weaker event:



Mind you, nice to see the tropical moisture ingress mooted to arrive into central Aus (combination of the sagging "red line" and rain accumulated on ground in same area).

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#1474479 - 22/10/2018 19:02 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Well Windy.com chart showing upper low weaken out quickly no heavy rain at all.

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#1474480 - 22/10/2018 19:09 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
I Think Windy is EC based?
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#1474482 - 22/10/2018 20:03 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1173
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
And you can add ACCESS to the models now mostly in line with EC

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#1474496 - 22/10/2018 20:57 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Bummer. ....but still time for things to change (hopefully not for the worse).

First warm muggy BBQ evening for the season had here, still 22C out after nudging 30C and somehow without seabreeze.

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#1474503 - 22/10/2018 21:44 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
With a 146km cycle fund raiser at Daylesford this weekend rain is not on the "comfort" menu grin

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#1474518 - 23/10/2018 12:35 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
looks like End Chapter for Victoria this weekend as down grade to nothing.

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#1474520 - 23/10/2018 13:07 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Looking good ( YMMV ) for D'ford. Not to hot this stage
either smile

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#1474530 - 23/10/2018 17:53 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Jilly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 186
Loc: Warrnambool
Have a cracking ride, so jealous...meanwhile another dry day in the southwest, pasture rates growing at only 2kgs now...spring is over..still plenty of silage to cut.

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#1474532 - 23/10/2018 18:25 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, looks like those spokes wont start rusting Samboz:


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#1474549 - 23/10/2018 21:04 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2119
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Pretty much in the bag now P, be happy to see some rain
for the farmers of course.

Should be a good day Jilly, for a good cause.
(B.C.N.A. - Breast Cancer Network Australia)

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#1474564 - 24/10/2018 09:45 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lovely fresh calm sunny morning out this way after yesterdays rainless change.

MSLP chart shows the low pressure system about to cut off and establish over SE WA today, then to begin its long trip to who knows where (the models dont agree on much).

Suffice to say there will be plenty of moisture available in central Aus as the week progresses, for Vic, at this stage most models foretell a weak high pressure area to develop over SE Aus over the weekend to make this more a SA/NSW/QLD event.

But things could change, this system looks to be a slow mover.

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#1474619 - 25/10/2018 09:33 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lovely flood of moisture pluming into Aus interior via NW WA at the moment:



This event may not be for Victoria, but good rains over large areas of Aus look likely over coming days.

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#1474664 - 25/10/2018 19:00 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wow at the prognosed slow traverse/linger of this low pressure system. This arvo's model runs hint that we might be still experiencing the moisture from this system at this time next week (...or even longer?)

I would say its best described as a large scale thundery environment for most of Aus increasing over the looming week, IMO will end up looking like a summer easterly dip over East Aus?

Models have been all over the shop, so time will tell. In the meantime watch the water vapour images I reckon.

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#1474733 - 26/10/2018 18:54 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Fine day here, 24C. The low pressure system has now evolved and is spinning over in central WA.

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#1474750 - 27/10/2018 11:05 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Blustery cool westerly here, partly sunny, but not ideal conditions for the Maffra Show.

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#1474753 - 27/10/2018 13:08 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2701
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Today nice cool with clouds and its Bendigo Show of 18c with light SW winds.

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#1474767 - 27/10/2018 19:09 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cool with light shower falling here atm, strong WNW'ly winds have finally abated.

Here's the current state of the low pressure system:


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#1474784 - 28/10/2018 12:24 Re: Vic - arrival of a long travelled low pressure system 26-29/10/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7551
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest MSLP chart shows this system will become general moist and thundery weather over inland Aus over coming days.

Vic will be left sitting under a weak summer-like high pressure ridge for the coming few days?:


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