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#1474105 - 19/10/2018 08:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4791
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..19 OCT 2018 TIME..0725

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......22.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........74%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....E 9Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1020.7HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 cloud - increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1019.0Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 34kph at 1107
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...No significant weather.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95)Nov16.8(109)YTD888.4(1037.4),

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#1474119 - 19/10/2018 11:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Sandstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2003
Posts: 309
Loc: Highvale
3mm to 9:00am
Oct MTD 197mm


Edited by Sandstorm (19/10/2018 11:08)
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The mind is everything. What you think you become.


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#1474128 - 19/10/2018 14:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Should be some big storms through parts of NSW this weekend. The trough responsible over NSW quickly weakens and slides SE from Sunday though so not much for us. I don't mind though, it's very dry across many parts of NSW and it's good to see some rain on the cards for them.

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#1474132 - 19/10/2018 15:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1061
Loc: Warwick, QLD
4.5mm yesterday for a total of 106.5mm for the month. Warning came through this morning...

The Bureau of Meteorology have released a Queensland Severe Thunderstorm Warning for this weekend and early next week. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, are possible for eastern parts of the Maranoa, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett, Southeast Coast and southern parts of the Central Highlands as the trough becomes slow moving. The highest probability for severe thunderstorms will occur over the eastern Maranoa and western Downs on Sunday, moving slightly east to focus over the Darling Downs and Granite Belt and inland parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast on Monday before decreasing on Tuesday. The warning was received at 1037 hours Friday 19 October 2018.


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (19/10/2018 15:30)
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#1474137 - 19/10/2018 16:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1323
Loc: toowoomba
Can't see any mention of the warnings on BOM as yet.Nice if it comes off.

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#1474146 - 19/10/2018 17:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 64
Patiently waiting for a thread on to be made for next weeks set up smile

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#1474150 - 19/10/2018 19:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1143
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I’m sure I read on a news site , a strong upper level high pressure trough will bring severe storms to nsw.... that’s outstanding.

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#1474152 - 19/10/2018 19:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1633
Loc: Australia
BOM has possible storms for sunday ,Monday. They originally had storms forecast 3-4 days ago, then it was taken off as I stated in a post a few days back. Now its back on again. Maybe uncertainty with the models

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#1474153 - 19/10/2018 20:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
As nice as EC looks tonight, I think it could well be a throwaway run? Seems to be splitting the trough into two separate upper lows - one which moves across the QLD/NSW border on Sunday and another little one through Victoria. If you want to see the result of such an outcome (as opposed to a separate upper low / trough moving across NSW) check out Windy and compare EC/GFS. EC has colder upper level temps, more shear, better moisture profile and a much better scattering of storm activity extending to the SEQ coastline. However, I'm not buying this run at all, it just doesn't seem plausible and I can't find another model that supports it. Anyway, I'm sure there'll be some storms somewhere in the SEQ region on Sunday but i'm not convinced they'll be as widespread as tonight's EC run is suggesting.

EC first, GFS second:

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#1474154 - 19/10/2018 21:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 292
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Thx for the charts Mega, adds great meaning to your description. Could it come off? Only time will tell.
DD
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#1474155 - 19/10/2018 21:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 845
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yeah thanks for your thoughts mega, interesting, hope EC proves correct though haha

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#1474162 - 19/10/2018 23:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1143
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Yeah , I doubt it’s our show, further south this time.

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#1474167 - 20/10/2018 07:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1633
Loc: Australia
Models have full cloud cover for the SE tomorrow so I am unsure how these storms will develop if there is not enough heating.

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#1474168 - 20/10/2018 07:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1633
Loc: Australia
Access C had a band of rain moving thru in the early hours of sunday morning

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#1474169 - 20/10/2018 07:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Just look at the pme/watl map for sunday. There will be some activity probably west of the range whether it makes it to the coast I'm doubtful. Monday would be better for east of the ranges but apart from stronger instability the wind profile doesn't look severe to me but ya never know. ACCESS upper temps are cold but wouldn't say extremely cold maybe garden variety thunderstorms around through Sun-Mon.

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#1474171 - 20/10/2018 07:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
The rainfall forecasts from WATL don’t distinguish between thunderstorms and non-thunderstorm rainfall so if there’s going to be a rainband or non-storm rainfall, you won’t be able to tell unless you look at the setup.

As for morning cloud and rain reducing Storm extent and severity, it’s a case of “often but not always”. It depends on how unstable it can get.

P.S. apart from the possible cloud and rainfall, there appears to be somewhat of a capping factor to be considered for places like Brisbane and a bit of drier air in the lower levels but on the other hand, steering winds are good and so is shear.

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#1474172 - 20/10/2018 07:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
There only looks to be 30kt of shear? The WATL map has no big precip for our area maybe 5-10mm so I'd assume thats from weakening TS.


Edited by Steve O (20/10/2018 07:43)

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#1474173 - 20/10/2018 07:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Originally Posted By: Steve O
There only looks to be 30kt of shear? The WATL map has no big precip for our area maybe 5-10mm so I'd assume thats from weakening TS.

Shear isn’t just the wind speed at a certain height but the difference in wind speed/direction between the bottom and top of a given layer. So in tomorrow’s case for the Brisbane area for example, 12kt NE’lies near the surface and 25kt of SW’lies at 500hpa = 35-40kt of shear in that layer (depending on what model you look at).

Also, precip amounts are not always a good indicator of thunderstorm potential compared to probabilities of precip. In tomorrow’s case, some of that precip maybe due to morning activity as well.

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#1474174 - 20/10/2018 08:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 845
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
We seem to get this so often, the dregs from the previous afternoon/evening activity giving us cloud cover in the morning.Monday also looks like a non event to with AccessC not showing any precip for a large part of the region.

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#1474176 - 20/10/2018 08:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Thanks Ken, I suppose when you say 35-40kt of shear doesn't sound like strong shear but I've seen days with alot less shear and it has produced some nice upmotion and the odd rumble.

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