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#1474280 - 20/10/2018 19:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
So the BOM are a government organisation funded by the Government to produce weather data / forecast on super computers made available with tax payers money. See where I'm goin with this? or am I way out of line?
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#1474282 - 20/10/2018 19:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: DDstorm]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
So the BOM are a government organisation funded by the Government to produce weather data / forecast on super computers made available with tax payers money. See where I'm goin with this? or am I way out of line?

It's a government organisation which is ultimately funded by the taxpayer. Some income comes in from a commercial weather services section but most of the money is from the government i.e. taxpayer.
I believe the US still actually mandates that all data from their own (NWS) models such as GFS must be made publicly available because it's the taxpayer who funds them.

The picture becomes a bit more complicated when we're talking about data from overseas models because the overseas centres which run those models are the ones who decide what data can be redistributed for public use and how, not the Bureau. So the onus isn't really up to the Bureau to invest a lot of time and money into displaying data from models which they don't run.

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#1474283 - 20/10/2018 19:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Thx Ken, appreciate the reply
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#1474284 - 20/10/2018 19:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The radar starting to show precip creeping into the western downs still looks on track for some of that to reach here by the early morning hours. In thunderstorm form at that time not sure but would be nice to wake upto.

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#1474292 - 20/10/2018 22:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Yep agreed Steve. Either the overnight hours (has already reached parts of the eastern and southeastern Downs as I type) or early morning hours.

If the associated cloud cover stays too thick all through the daytime, it could be a complicating factor (together with some capping near the coast) for the extent & severity of any storms near coastal SE QLD later on in the day but looks to me like there'll still be enough instability to support at least some storm activity somewhere in the region later on in the day or evening (particularly if there's clearer gaps in the cloud or it's very thin high cloud, in which case some storms may become strong). Probably something to play by ear at this stage.

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#1474293 - 20/10/2018 22:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, cloud cover definitely could be an issue tomorrow. Hopefully the remnants of tonight and tomorrow morning's storms can weaken and push offshore by morning to leave us with a warm and partially sunny skies. Also, that little feature that EC was showing seems to have flattened out in the latest run and isn't anywhere near as defined as it was previously - in fact, it looks very similar to ACCESS-R now and has backed off considerably on precip as a result. Still wouldn't rule out something tomorrow though.

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#1474300 - 21/10/2018 06:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Too mch cloud, will never get to 28 if that hangs around. I didn't understand the Boms forecast yesterday of "cloudy" with possible storms, possibly severe. From my recollection in Brisbane, if it is cloudy for the day, the chance of a storm is remote especially severe. Now they backed of on the severe part. They chop and change way too much these days. I would kept it consistent and just said - cloudy with a slight chance of a storm.
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#1474301 - 21/10/2018 07:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
The main cloud band seem to be just East of Warwick now, though I think there's low to mid stuff still lingering out that way. You would be to venture west to see the start of the action.
The centre of the upper low seems to be over Moree if i'm mistaken. Don't write off today just yet, I haven't even had breakfast lol

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#1474302 - 21/10/2018 07:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Meanwhile the cloud has produced a stunning sunrise along the Gold Coast.


Lonely shell by Glen Anderson, on Flickr

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#1474303 - 21/10/2018 07:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
nice gleno
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#1474305 - 21/10/2018 08:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Another 13.5mm. Might crack 200mm this month yet 😍
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Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1474306 - 21/10/2018 08:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Just looking at 12z forecasts.. its definitely looks unstable starting to look like a squall line setup? Don't think cloud is going to be too much of an issue maybe severe can be taken out of the forecast but even still wouldn't be surprised if a descent OFB appeared at some stage today.

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#1474307 - 21/10/2018 08:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Hope so. You can see that upper low spinning nicely on the satellite loop out near Moree.Bring on something today please Thor!

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#1474308 - 21/10/2018 08:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Should make interesting racing at the GC 600 so many times storms have been forecast on that event. Think we will have to wait until the usual diurnal maximum.

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#1474309 - 21/10/2018 08:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..21 OCT 2018 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.3C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........75%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....NE 6Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.4HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30M
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......27.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....19.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.2C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....17C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 29kph at 1425
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Slight rain from ex TS early morning.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1474310 - 21/10/2018 09:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Cloud is clearing and storms already out past Kingaroy. Game on!!!!

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#1474312 - 21/10/2018 09:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Flippy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/12/2017
Posts: 10
Clouds clearing nice and early here in Brisbane city, plenty of blue sky above. Game on then yeh??

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#1474313 - 21/10/2018 09:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Good morning all, beautiful calm morning, already 25C, sunny with a bit of cloud & 6mm wetness from this morning. Looks like a good day coming up. Bring the storms on, afternoon BBQ ready!
Great pic gleno!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/10/2018 09:43)

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#1474315 - 21/10/2018 09:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Actually looking forward to seeing this mornings observed sounding. GFS forcast has quite the cold uppers and steep lapse rates with lots of moisture.

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#1474316 - 21/10/2018 10:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
Get the feeling that little upper low movement holds the key today. If it moves east to fast it may clear things around its northern side quickly. I would like to see it move further north or slide south? Whats the educated opinions on what it will do? Models seem to indicate a northeasterly track.

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