Page 3 of 8 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >
Topic Options
#1474317 - 21/10/2018 10:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Sillybanter]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Get the feeling that little upper low movement holds the key today. If it moves east to fast it may clear things around its northern side quickly. I would like to see it move further north or slide south? Whats the educated opinions on what it will do? Models seem to indicate a northeasterly track.

Most models currently support an E or ENE track today, skirting along or just south of the QLD/NSW border, passing over NE NSW this afternoon and then off the coast tonight.

Although the forcing from this system would be handy for storms, it can be a bit of a double edge sword because when we're downstream of it, we often get a fair bit of unwanted cloud cover and/or rainfall.

In saying that though, there should still be enough breaks in the cloud cover today to support storms at least somewhere in our region, if not everywhere.

BTW in case anyone's wondering if the dregs from that inland band made it to the coast, it reached the western half of the greater Brisbane region, among other areas: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR662-brisbane/2018-10-20-11/2018-10-20-21

P.S. and yes, that cold air in the midlevels associated with the low should help too. Some of the areas that don't get excessively saturated profiles may even get some decent hail.

Top
#1474323 - 21/10/2018 12:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3584
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Overcast now with dark clouds gathering, calm & warm 26C.

Top
#1474325 - 21/10/2018 12:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 860
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Very warm and humid down here lots of sunshine . .something should give later🤗

Top
#1474326 - 21/10/2018 12:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5572
There's already a rapid development of showers and storms tracking across parts of the Downs with some more localised activity popping up closer to the coast.

Top
#1474327 - 21/10/2018 13:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1837
Loc: Kingaroy
Nothing yet in Kingaroy so far although we did get ten millimetres of rain last night. On the water vapor chart there is a lot of dry air towards the north, if the upper low ingests some of that dry air the storm risk could lower significantly.


Edited by Chris Stumer (21/10/2018 13:51)

Top
#1474330 - 21/10/2018 14:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
T.rex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 68
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
The rain is just beginning in Eastern Toowoomba, but only a few spots so far, and there is a bit of thunder rolling around. Temperature here is 21 deg.
_________________________
Mike,

On the Edge of the Range.

Top
#1474331 - 21/10/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: T.rex]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2262
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
106km/h wind gust was reported at Toowoomba at 1:20pm

91km/h wind gust was reported at Oakey at 1:10pm

Top
#1474332 - 21/10/2018 14:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2262
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The cells popping up in front of the main line are very pulsey. I would have rather they didn't develop at all so the main line at Toowoomba has clear air approaching the coast.

Top
#1474333 - 21/10/2018 14:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks very much like EC has pulled this one off to a large extent. I've compared GFS runs from 12z Friday to 12z Saturday to show the sudden shift towards the EC solution:


Top
#1474335 - 21/10/2018 14:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2542
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
256k Mt Stappy is showing a solid bow echo squall line and very strong winds behind the system. natures Fury has already mentioned some of the wind gusts. Must be a good rear flank downdraft or feeder into the storm system .


Edited by Colin Maitland (21/10/2018 14:38)
Edit Reason: iPad troubles
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

Top
#1474336 - 21/10/2018 14:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2262
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
256k Mt Stappy is showing a solid bow echo squall line and very strong winds behind the system as Naturesfury has already mentioned some of the wind gusts. Must be a good rear flank downdraft or feeder into the storm system .


Reckon it will make the coast with current strength?

Top
#1474337 - 21/10/2018 14:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
256k Mt Stappy is showing a solid bow echo squall line and very strong winds behind the system as Naturesfury has already mentioned some of the wind gusts. Must be a good rear flank downdraft or feeder into the storm system .


Reckon it will make the coast with current strength?


I was wondering the same thing.

Top
#1474338 - 21/10/2018 14:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 947
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Toowoomba recording gusts over 100km/h for last 10 mins

Top
#1474339 - 21/10/2018 14:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
256k Mt Stappy is showing a solid bow echo squall line and very strong winds behind the system as Naturesfury has already mentioned some of the wind gusts. Must be a good rear flank downdraft or feeder into the storm system .


Reckon it will make the coast with current strength?


I'd be more confident if those first cells didn't develop ahead of the main line as you said.

Top
#1474340 - 21/10/2018 14:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2542
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I believe it will, since posting a few minutes ago and fixing IPad rubbish another line is forming in front of the bigger system to the west of it. We have thunder now at Bracken Ridge. Just exploding very quickly.


Edited by Colin Maitland (21/10/2018 14:43)
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

Top
#1474341 - 21/10/2018 14:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Brisbane CBD and south in for a fun ride next half hour, hopefully something interesting comes out of the line behind it.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

Top
#1474342 - 21/10/2018 14:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Check out the Toowoomba obs at 1:20pm, wind gust of 109km/h, temp of 11.8C and a feels like of -4.7!!
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

Top
#1474343 - 21/10/2018 14:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: LightningGus]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7336
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Check out the Toowoomba obs at 1:20pm, wind gust of 109km/h, temp of 11.8C and a feels like of -4.7!!


Epic downdrafts no doubt, haha.

Top
#1474344 - 21/10/2018 14:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3303
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Excellent..

Top
#1474345 - 21/10/2018 14:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2542
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I havenít fired up the laptop or the main computer so I am only using my IPad. It makes the forum harder to follow. The radar sweeps with 128K and Doppler hinting at rotation in the large cell which has speed up a bit. Could be a wild ride shortly.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

Top
Page 3 of 8 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >


Who's Online
21 registered (RC, Night Rain, Wezza, paj, Stormy3, gberg, TrentG, kizz, Pacman, pagey, Mathew, damn_ummmm, whynot, Colin Maitland, Neata, GringosRain, Flowin, wetdreams, ThunderBob, Raindammit, 1 invisible), 264 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Conor McDonald, dmhwce, LittleDavey83, Michael Lee, Nero
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24026 Topics
1506145 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image