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#1474415 - 21/10/2018 19:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: martyface]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
It's some activity wrapping around the back end of the upper low I think? I don't see it having the legs to move up here considering the upper low is moving east out to sea.

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#1474416 - 21/10/2018 19:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 64
Is that activity south of the border developing along what looks like a southerly change shown here in the GFS model.



Edited by Belgarad (21/10/2018 19:19)

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#1474418 - 21/10/2018 19:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
As crap as these cells look on radar, the lightning is fantastic.

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#1474419 - 21/10/2018 19:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Belgarad]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
There is a southerly in play, but I still think it's activity sliding up the backside of the upper low. Look at the squall line that moved off the coast. The line is actually rotating toward the south-east (how often do we ever see that!).

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#1474420 - 21/10/2018 19:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Some models such as EC also still suggest the surface low will consolidate a bit more tonight as it drifts just off the SE QLD/NE NSW coastal border before drifting a bit further northeast then eventually washing out into a trough.

If this happens, it'd flick up slightly more stable S to SE winds up its backside over us which would then mean any thunderstorm activity tomorrow would be more localised than today (but not necessarily absent).

A few what-if's would have to come together for that to happen first however.

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#1474421 - 21/10/2018 19:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This is awesome...CGs everywhere lol

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#1474422 - 21/10/2018 19:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Also that would makes sense Ken when ACCESSS R wasn't showing much precip tomorrow for the SE corner but further north looked better for tomorrow.

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#1474425 - 21/10/2018 20:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It's as if the radar is overestimating rainfall from this cell. Plenty of lightning but the rain barely even got past light believe it or not.

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#1474426 - 21/10/2018 20:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1796
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
https://www.facebook.com/ABCSouthernQueensland/videos
/197586321040992/


I seen this on facebook down here I thought I would put it on here.


Edited by Stormy3 (21/10/2018 20:47)
_________________________
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1474429 - 21/10/2018 21:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Ended up with 16mm today. 12mm early am and 4mm from the tail end of the storms up here this arvo
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1474431 - 21/10/2018 21:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
24mm here. Down pipes couldn’t keep up. Street gutters and drains were working overtime. The heavy rain fell in a short period .
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1474433 - 21/10/2018 21:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
We had 11.5mm last night and very early this morning from a nice steady rain. We had a brief TS this arvo which added about 5mm, not exactly sure the exact amount as I have not had a chance to check. We now have about 123mm for the month! Good stuff!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1474434 - 21/10/2018 21:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Spinning away nicely out there got to love abit of vorticity and refreshingly cool.

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#1474438 - 21/10/2018 22:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Vicious flangs occurring here from this second cell. Jumped out of my skin a few times.

Edit: This storm is much better than the one earlier. Torrential rain and a good sprinkling of hail too.

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#1474442 - 21/10/2018 23:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: zuldjan]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 119
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Absolute cracker of a storm at Warner.

60mm in short time, with rain rates up around 190mm/hr before it failed.

No power and no internet.

Significant tree damage and full tree defoliationaround cashmere, Warner bray park and Joyner.

I lived at the gap for the gap storm and would find this one today comparable.



Got the data off my weather station, and absolutely astounding rain rates

Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.

Only 39 mm through the rain gauge which can be attributed to wind, with 58 mm in the bck up nylex.

Unfortunately my wind gauge stopped recording, but it recorded a gust of 52knots.(whilst I know the wind was strong( the wind vane is on the pitch of the roof and may be affected by upslope winds?)
_________________________
www.warnerweather.com.au

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#1474446 - 22/10/2018 07:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
7.1mm from yesterday’s storms here at Salisbury....first cell was basically just a light and sound show with no wind at all, second much bigger cell was more rain and when the wind gusts kicked in....no hail in either cell for us.
Have seen pics of sister inlaws yard at Warner, thier backyard was covered in pea sized hail


Edited by Namarrkun (22/10/2018 07:17)

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#1474448 - 22/10/2018 08:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..22 OCT 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......20.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........86%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....W 7Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1016.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud, decreasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........13.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......28.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....14.2C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....17C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..W 40kph at 1520
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Decaying thunderstorm mid afternoon, clearing early evening.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1474449 - 22/10/2018 08:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Here's some severe wx reports from people reported to the WeatheX app during the 24hrs up to 6am today:





I'm still thinking that even though today's official forecast for places like Brisbane currently say "chance of a thunderstorm in the west", any storms will be far more localised and less severe today (if any at all) due to the somewhat more stable and drier S to SE'ly flow flicking up over us on the backside of the offshore weak low.
As per my previous post, that cold air aloft with the upper low really helped yesterday.

P.S. thanks for the reports zuldjan and sharing that fb link Stormy3

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#1474450 - 22/10/2018 09:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Totally agree Zuldjan, one of the wildest storms we've had here.

Massive amounts of tree litter all over the roads afterwards. One of our neighbour's trees (about 20ft high) was ripped straight out of the ground.

Practically every for sale sign in brendale was flattened from what I saw.

Had 40mm in about 10 minutes.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1474451 - 22/10/2018 09:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Yeah Access C only hinting some activity on the range in Northern NSW and Warwick. And west of Bundaberg and Rocky etc. Upper low off the coast now. Think it will be a quiet day.

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