#1474452 - 22/10/2018 09:31
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 953
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
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Oh well, everyone certainly got their storm fix yesterday hopefully.I have brought this up before and I know other factors must come into play but cooler temps across the southern and eastern half of Ausright through till late September set us up for strong storms with hail for our stormy months in October till December
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#1474453 - 22/10/2018 09:31
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1760
Loc: Australia
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I was disappointed with my chase yesterday, though I was out at Gatton in the firing line of the Toowoomba storm, I couldn't see a visible shelf cloud. There were storms that formed east of this one they may have had something to do with it. Was a lot of messy cloud as well. It was actually raining well before the storm hit, normally the bulk of the rain is at the back end of the storm? The structures were more defined when the storms reached the coast.  Untitled [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/94869731@N06/][/url]
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#1474457 - 22/10/2018 10:44
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: zuldjan]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 735
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
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[quote=zuldjan]
Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.
Wow! And here I was thinking the 75mm/hr I recorded at home yesterday was impressive. 343mm/hr would be a complete whiteout?
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#1474459 - 22/10/2018 11:31
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Mezo]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 120
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[quote=zuldjan]
Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.
Wow! And here I was thinking the 75mm/hr I recorded at home yesterday was impressive. 343mm/hr would be a complete whiteout? Absolute white out - I’ll upload a video shortlyn
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#1474462 - 22/10/2018 14:06
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4967
Loc: Wynnum
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2 small lows forming off SEQ in the space of week, suggesting a westward shift of the LWT.
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#1474483 - 22/10/2018 20:06
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 759
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
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This was an impressive event. Appears that the forecast timing in the operational consensus forecast on met eye was on the mark.
RWM what do you mean by shift of the LWT?
Good photo Gleno
Edited by Flowin (22/10/2018 20:08)
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Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.
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#1474484 - 22/10/2018 20:16
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Flowin]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2615
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
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This was an impressive event. Appears that the forecast timing in the operational consensus forecast on met eye was on the mark.
RWM what do you mean by shift of the LWT?
Good photo Gleno Hi Flowin, I hope I am not stepping on RWM toes but LWT is abbreviation for Long Wave Trough. It is also one of the ingredients that helps generates the waves in the ocean as well.. I hope that is the LWT RWM was discussing. 🤔😁🌊🏄♂️
Edited by Colin Maitland (22/10/2018 20:24)
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#1474487 - 22/10/2018 20:29
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5841
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LWT = long wave troughs which, in the atmospheric/weather context, are basically troughs of very long wavelengths. There’s typically around 3 to 5 of them in each hemisphere at any given time, they can be mobile/progressive, stationary or even retrograde and when individual lows pass through them, they tend to surge up towards lower latitudes, peak, then slide back down again. They’re a big factor in determining the general kind of weather regime a given area experienced over a number of days or weeks together with long wave ridges) depending on their mobility and amplitude.
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#1474488 - 22/10/2018 20:29
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 759
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
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Thanks Colin.
Agree Mega. The circulation on the radar was clear.
And thanks Ken
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#1474493 - 22/10/2018 20:50
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2615
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
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I just had a look and my interest in them is the generation of waves and the West Coast of New Zealand and the Southern tip of Tassie is predicted to reach a 5 - 6 Meter swell. I bet you WSL or Rip Curl XXL would be keeping an eye on it. There is a break off group of big wave riders that will drop everything and find the biggest wave for the week/month.
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#1474498 - 22/10/2018 20:58
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 759
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
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I assume LWT is influenced from South, so can this extend to remote influence on TCs from the equator?
And more influence on ECLs south of Fraser? Assuming that most ECLs are a southern phenomenon but some are extra tropical cyclones
Edited by Flowin (22/10/2018 21:03)
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#1474502 - 22/10/2018 21:43
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3454
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
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Usually its the instability from the trough that aids in the development of an ECL if your are talking about long wave pattern in the mid/upper levels. Also they have influenced TCs in the past which they have helped destroy TCs and send it to the graveyard.
Edited by Steve O (22/10/2018 21:45)
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#1474504 - 22/10/2018 21:59
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Mega]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2488
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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Bottom post. It's been active in our area for quite a while. 2 great posts from Mike in the Climate Drivers thread that might explain why we are having an active start to the storm season after the long dry spell: I think this is indicative of why mature el nino is not so bad for rainfall outside the tropics.  Here tropical activity is focused a long way east out near Fiji. The deep tropical trades are blocked out near Fiji, so until the NW monsoon flow can get going later in summer the tropics are bit starved for moisture. But once tropical activity pushes this far east there is room for a nice long high pressure ridge through subtropics allowing reasonable moisture to reach the subtropical parts of Australia. Not as good as when the tropics and subtropics are both pumping in moisture, but not bad either.
....so you are expecting good October rains for much of Aus SE?
Normal el nino influence is for rains to improve for most of NSW and subtropical Qld through Spring. Tropical Qld and Vic/Tas have to wait more towards summer before dry conditions ease. IOD also looks poor for Vic/SA but thats not really my thing. The Polar Vortex seems to have been extending in Australia'ss direction a lot in the last couple months. Lots of upper troughs seem to be giving SEQ a pretty good start to the storm season, and I'd imagine it would be helping SE Australia as well. Don't know why this is happening or how long it will continue for. See the big area of blue anomalies on this 90 day chart representing more frequent upper troughing in Australia's region.  I remember commenting back last year that there was a 3-node pattern, whereas the longwave trough is usually described as alternating between 4 or 5 nodes. ENSO tends to set one node in SE Pacific, and the 3 node pattern seems to set up a favorable node near Australia for El nino instead of peak upper troughing being near NZ and SE Indian Ocean in a 4 node pattern.
Edited by Nature's Fury (22/10/2018 22:00)
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#1474505 - 22/10/2018 22:11
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3454
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
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Yep its been there many times just needed warm moist air for it. Here's next week. 
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#1474507 - 22/10/2018 23:02
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 597
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
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Some of us would had loved to be in a few places at once during that storm line crossing. Noice pics again gleno . Unfortunately the Goldy didn't fair well with lightning or structure, just a rumbling rain event - 20mm at home while I ventured out under a bridge for near 2hrs waiting for the Q1 onslaught of amperage strikes, not-to-be, only one tiny hit found in 450 frames, ha ! So I sees the clear line of sky to the west coming over after, and thought to move into the open. traveled for just a few k's east toward Surfers Para and seen the Q1 hit twice, Sheeze ! ! Anywho, this Rainbow made up for some of the time spent...   
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#1474516 - 23/10/2018 08:42
Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
[Re: Steve O]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5841
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Awesome shots PlumbBob. Love those colours.
And great shot of the mammatus as well gleno.
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