[quote=zuldjan]
Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.

I think this is indicative of why mature el nino is not so bad for rainfall outside the tropics.



Here tropical activity is focused a long way east out near Fiji. The deep tropical trades are blocked out near Fiji, so until the NW monsoon flow can get going later in summer the tropics are bit starved for moisture. But once tropical activity pushes this far east there is room for a nice long high pressure ridge through subtropics allowing reasonable moisture to reach the subtropical parts of Australia. Not as good as when the tropics and subtropics are both pumping in moisture, but not bad either.

Normal el nino influence is for rains to improve for most of NSW and subtropical Qld through Spring. Tropical Qld and Vic/Tas have to wait more towards summer before dry conditions ease. IOD also looks poor for Vic/SA but thats not really my thing.

The Polar Vortex seems to have been extending in Australia'ss direction a lot in the last couple months. Lots of upper troughs seem to be giving SEQ a pretty good start to the storm season, and I'd imagine it would be helping SE Australia as well. Don't know why this is happening or how long it will continue for.

See the big area of blue anomalies on this 90 day chart representing more frequent upper troughing in Australia's region.



I remember commenting back last year that there was a 3-node pattern, whereas the longwave trough is usually described as alternating between 4 or 5 nodes. ENSO tends to set one node in SE Pacific, and the 3 node pattern seems to set up a favorable node near Australia for El nino instead of peak upper troughing being near NZ and SE Indian Ocean in a 4 node pattern.