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#1474452 - 22/10/2018 09:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
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Oh well, everyone certainly got their storm fix yesterday hopefully.I have brought this up before and I know other factors must come into play but cooler temps across the southern and eastern half of Ausright through till late September set us up for strong storms with hail for our stormy months in October till December

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#1474453 - 22/10/2018 09:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
I was disappointed with my chase yesterday, though I was out at Gatton in the firing line of the Toowoomba storm, I couldn't see a visible shelf cloud. There were storms that formed east of this one they may have had something to do with it. Was a lot of messy cloud as well. It was actually raining well before the storm hit, normally the bulk of the rain is at the back end of the storm? The structures were more defined when the storms reached the coast.

Untitled [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/94869731@N06/][/url]

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#1474457 - 22/10/2018 10:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: zuldjan]
Mezo Offline
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Registered: 01/12/2011
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Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
[quote=zuldjan]
Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.


Wow! And here I was thinking the 75mm/hr I recorded at home yesterday was impressive.

343mm/hr would be a complete whiteout?
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#1474459 - 22/10/2018 11:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Mezo]
zuldjan Offline
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Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 119
Originally Posted By: Mezo
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
[quote=zuldjan]
Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.


Wow! And here I was thinking the 75mm/hr I recorded at home yesterday was impressive.

343mm/hr would be a complete whiteout?


Absolute white out - I’ll upload a video shortlyn
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#1474462 - 22/10/2018 14:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
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Loc: Wynnum
2 small lows forming off SEQ in the space of week, suggesting a westward shift of the LWT.
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#1474483 - 22/10/2018 20:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
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Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
This was an impressive event. Appears that the forecast timing in the operational consensus forecast on met eye was on the mark.
RWM what do you mean by shift of the LWT?
Good photo Gleno


Edited by Flowin (22/10/2018 20:08)
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#1474484 - 22/10/2018 20:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Flowin]
Colin Maitland Online   content
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
This was an impressive event. Appears that the forecast timing in the operational consensus forecast on met eye was on the mark.
RWM what do you mean by shift of the LWT?
Good photo Gleno


Hi Flowin, I hope I am not stepping on RWM toes but LWT is abbreviation for Long Wave Trough. It is also one of the ingredients that helps generates the waves in the ocean as well.. I hope that is the LWT RWM was discussing. 🤔😁🌊🏄‍♂️


Edited by Colin Maitland (22/10/2018 20:24)
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#1474486 - 22/10/2018 20:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC deserves a lot of praise for being the first model to run with the second circulation idea from its Friday afternoon run. I honestly thought it was an error but it stuck to its guns and was pretty spot on in the end.

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#1474487 - 22/10/2018 20:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
LWT = long wave troughs which, in the atmospheric/weather context, are basically troughs of very long wavelengths. There’s typically around 3 to 5 of them in each hemisphere at any given time, they can be mobile/progressive, stationary or even retrograde and when individual lows pass through them, they tend to surge up towards lower latitudes, peak, then slide back down again. They’re a big factor in determining the general kind of weather regime a given area experienced over a number of days or weeks together with long wave ridges) depending on their mobility and amplitude.

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#1474488 - 22/10/2018 20:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks Colin.
Agree Mega. The circulation on the radar was clear.
And thanks Ken

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#1474489 - 22/10/2018 20:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Going by http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=hemisphere&lc=sh&mt=gfshem&mc=longwave&mso=0&mh=0&focus=mh , our long wave trough is poking up through South Australia and there is another one east of New Zealand. I'm not sure what their movement has been like of late though since I haven't been keeping tabs on it.

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#1474493 - 22/10/2018 20:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2534
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I just had a look and my interest in them is the generation of waves and the West Coast of New Zealand and the Southern tip of Tassie is predicted to reach a 5 - 6 Meter swell. I bet you WSL or Rip Curl XXL would be keeping an eye on it. There is a break off group of big wave riders that will drop everything and find the biggest wave for the week/month.
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#1474498 - 22/10/2018 20:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I assume LWT is influenced from South, so can this extend to remote influence on TCs from the equator?
And more influence on ECLs south of Fraser? Assuming that most ECLs are a southern phenomenon but some are extra tropical cyclones


Edited by Flowin (22/10/2018 21:03)

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#1474502 - 22/10/2018 21:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Usually its the instability from the trough that aids in the development of an ECL if your are talking about long wave pattern in the mid/upper levels. Also they have influenced TCs in the past which they have helped destroy TCs and send it to the graveyard.


Edited by Steve O (22/10/2018 21:45)

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#1474504 - 22/10/2018 21:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
Going by http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=hemisphere&lc=sh&mt=gfshem&mc=longwave&mso=0&mh=0&focus=mh , our long wave trough is poking up through South Australia and there is another one east of New Zealand. I'm not sure what their movement has been like of late though since I haven't been keeping tabs on it.


Bottom post. It's been active in our area for quite a while.

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
2 great posts from Mike in the Climate Drivers thread that might explain why we are having an active start to the storm season after the long dry spell:

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think this is indicative of why mature el nino is not so bad for rainfall outside the tropics.



Here tropical activity is focused a long way east out near Fiji. The deep tropical trades are blocked out near Fiji, so until the NW monsoon flow can get going later in summer the tropics are bit starved for moisture. But once tropical activity pushes this far east there is room for a nice long high pressure ridge through subtropics allowing reasonable moisture to reach the subtropical parts of Australia. Not as good as when the tropics and subtropics are both pumping in moisture, but not bad either.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Petros

....so you are expecting good October rains for much of Aus SE?


Normal el nino influence is for rains to improve for most of NSW and subtropical Qld through Spring. Tropical Qld and Vic/Tas have to wait more towards summer before dry conditions ease. IOD also looks poor for Vic/SA but thats not really my thing.

The Polar Vortex seems to have been extending in Australia'ss direction a lot in the last couple months. Lots of upper troughs seem to be giving SEQ a pretty good start to the storm season, and I'd imagine it would be helping SE Australia as well. Don't know why this is happening or how long it will continue for.

See the big area of blue anomalies on this 90 day chart representing more frequent upper troughing in Australia's region.



I remember commenting back last year that there was a 3-node pattern, whereas the longwave trough is usually described as alternating between 4 or 5 nodes. ENSO tends to set one node in SE Pacific, and the 3 node pattern seems to set up a favorable node near Australia for El nino instead of peak upper troughing being near NZ and SE Indian Ocean in a 4 node pattern.


Edited by Nature's Fury (22/10/2018 22:00)

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#1474505 - 22/10/2018 22:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yep its been there many times just needed warm moist air for it.
Here's next week.

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#1474507 - 22/10/2018 23:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
PlumbBob Offline
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Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 582
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Some of us would had loved to be in a few places at once during that storm line crossing.
Noice pics again gleno .

Unfortunately the Goldy didn't fair well with lightning or structure, just a rumbling rain event - 20mm at home while I ventured out under a bridge for near 2hrs waiting for the Q1 onslaught of amperage strikes, not-to-be, only one tiny hit found in 450 frames, ha !
So I sees the clear line of sky to the west coming over after, and thought to move into the open. traveled for just a few k's east toward Surfers Para and seen the Q1 hit twice, Sheeze ! !

Anywho, this Rainbow made up for some of the time spent...





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#1474516 - 23/10/2018 08:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Awesome shots PlumbBob. Love those colours.

And great shot of the mammatus as well gleno.

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