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#1474188 - 20/10/2018 09:17 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
As mentioned in the day to day thread, A upper level trough combined with a moist onshore flow could trigger thunderstorms or a band of rain/showers. Timing of the main activity still looks abit hit and miss with some early morning precip forecast for the region. The Darling Downs and Northern NSW I feel will be better placed for Sunday and some of this maybe steered towards coastal areas. Would like to hear your thoughts


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#1474196 - 20/10/2018 11:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
21/20???/18.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1474197 - 20/10/2018 11:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Not sure if I can edit it..thanks Seabreeze.


Edited by Steve O (20/10/2018 11:45)

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#1474207 - 20/10/2018 13:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC and GFS still look so different tomorrow! EC is still persisting with the double upper circulation I mentioned last night and even has a little surface low moving across the southern inland border to the coast. Maybe the model is picking up an MCS from tonight and tomorrow morning's storms?

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#1474213 - 20/10/2018 13:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC then GFS @ 700mb (chose the mid-levels as this feature extends from the surface to the upper levels). It'll be interesting to see whether EC drops this in today or tomorrow morning's runs as I'm still not seeing much support from the ACCESS models either:



Thanks to WZ Layers I should add!

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#1474214 - 20/10/2018 13:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Oh wow where are you seeing these charts Mega. Couldn't see that on the EC I was looking at. Could see the trough but only in the synoptics.


Edited by Steve O (20/10/2018 13:44)

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#1474215 - 20/10/2018 13:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
The Weatherzone Layers product (which also has ACCESS-C charts)


Edited by Ken Kato (20/10/2018 13:42)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1474216 - 20/10/2018 13:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, it's just easier to cut the entire right side off for resizing/cropping purposes. They should add a logo at the bottom instead. smile

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#1474217 - 20/10/2018 13:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Hmmm I know what I want for xmas now. Haha cheers

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#1474218 - 20/10/2018 13:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
It's been around for awhile although new features have been added to it over time. It's as cheap as chips.

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#1474219 - 20/10/2018 14:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Is there somewhere you can get EC and ACCESS forecast soundings aswell? I imagine it wouldn't be as easy as clicking a location.


Edited by Steve O (20/10/2018 14:02)

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#1474221 - 20/10/2018 14:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Not that I know of, it would be a handy feature to have though.

You can use Windy for EC as well. It's actually really good and I mostly use it but for screenshots I just prefer Layers that's all.

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#1474222 - 20/10/2018 14:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Is there somewhere you can get EC and ACCESS forecast soundings aswell? I imagine it wouldn't be as easy as clicking a location.


As far as I'm aware, the only public (but user-pays) source for EC soundings is through Accuweather Pro... but even those soundings have somewhat coarse resolution (I think they might still use the lower 0.5 degree resolution version of EC).

I don't know of any free site that offers ACCESS-R and C soundings except for a password protected section of BSCH meant for designated clients.

The only other source of those soundings is through dedicated software internal to national met agencies such as the Bureau, and also internal use by Weatherzone for aviation weather forecasting, etc for certain clients.

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#1474225 - 20/10/2018 14:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Just to add to my previous post about the "I imagine it wouldn't be as easy as clicking a location." bit in your post Steve, it's actually even better (if you have access to those sounding products).

For example, one of the software programs used by some met organisations including the Bureau allows you to display roaming profiles i.e. wherever you move your mouse over the map, it'll display a small sounding for that current position that tags along with your mouse pointer.

It also allows you to view multimodel soundings using any models you choose, including realtime soundings generated by data transmitted back from suitably equipped airline aircraft.

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#1474226 - 20/10/2018 14:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Interesting cheers.

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#1474230 - 20/10/2018 14:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Any chance we might see some of this forecast activity late tonight? Seems to be charging through NSW at quite a pace.

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#1474236 - 20/10/2018 15:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
just watching some of the webcams through NSW
http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11258

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#1474252 - 20/10/2018 16:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the info re the charts Ken, I was going to ask you if there are charts exclusive to the BOM that the public cannot access and why is that the case?

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#1474255 - 20/10/2018 17:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Thanks for the info re the charts Ken, I was going to ask you if there are charts exclusive to the BOM that the public cannot access and why is that the case?

The free charts that most of the public see on sites like BSCH are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to what's actually available internally. There's a huge amount of fancy internal stuff that the wider public never get to see.

In my opinion, there's a fair proportion of those products that I think should be made public if it doesn't involve too much extra time and money on implementing and maintaining them on websites (the public website in particular is in dire need of a big revamp)... but one of the big problems is that many of those products use data from certain models that the Bureau pays a lot of money for (e.g. EC) and redistribution of that data to the wider public is strictly prohibited by the ECMWF unless the Bureau pays even more money for the relevant privileges to do that. Sites/apps like Windy and weather.us are run by people who pay a lot of money to be able to use EC data and make it available to the wider public in the formats they want.

For in-house models like ACCESS, the Bureau has the right to choose how much or little of their ACCESS data to make publicly available since they've invested a lot of time and money into developing, running and upgrading the models as well as the supercomputer the models run on.

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#1474267 - 20/10/2018 17:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
That makes sense good explanation for a good question by Gleno.

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