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#1474188 - 20/10/2018 09:17 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
As mentioned in the day to day thread, A upper level trough combined with a moist onshore flow could trigger thunderstorms or a band of rain/showers. Timing of the main activity still looks abit hit and miss with some early morning precip forecast for the region. The Darling Downs and Northern NSW I feel will be better placed for Sunday and some of this maybe steered towards coastal areas. Would like to hear your thoughts


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#1474196 - 20/10/2018 11:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
21/20???/18.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1474197 - 20/10/2018 11:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Not sure if I can edit it..thanks Seabreeze.


Edited by Steve O (20/10/2018 11:45)

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#1474207 - 20/10/2018 13:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC and GFS still look so different tomorrow! EC is still persisting with the double upper circulation I mentioned last night and even has a little surface low moving across the southern inland border to the coast. Maybe the model is picking up an MCS from tonight and tomorrow morning's storms?

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#1474213 - 20/10/2018 13:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC then GFS @ 700mb (chose the mid-levels as this feature extends from the surface to the upper levels). It'll be interesting to see whether EC drops this in today or tomorrow morning's runs as I'm still not seeing much support from the ACCESS models either:



Thanks to WZ Layers I should add!

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#1474214 - 20/10/2018 13:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Oh wow where are you seeing these charts Mega. Couldn't see that on the EC I was looking at. Could see the trough but only in the synoptics.


Edited by Steve O (20/10/2018 13:44)

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#1474215 - 20/10/2018 13:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
The Weatherzone Layers product (which also has ACCESS-C charts)


Edited by Ken Kato (20/10/2018 13:42)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1474216 - 20/10/2018 13:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, it's just easier to cut the entire right side off for resizing/cropping purposes. They should add a logo at the bottom instead. smile

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#1474217 - 20/10/2018 13:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Hmmm I know what I want for xmas now. Haha cheers

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#1474218 - 20/10/2018 13:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
It's been around for awhile although new features have been added to it over time. It's as cheap as chips.

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#1474219 - 20/10/2018 14:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Is there somewhere you can get EC and ACCESS forecast soundings aswell? I imagine it wouldn't be as easy as clicking a location.


Edited by Steve O (20/10/2018 14:02)

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#1474221 - 20/10/2018 14:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Not that I know of, it would be a handy feature to have though.

You can use Windy for EC as well. It's actually really good and I mostly use it but for screenshots I just prefer Layers that's all.

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#1474222 - 20/10/2018 14:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Is there somewhere you can get EC and ACCESS forecast soundings aswell? I imagine it wouldn't be as easy as clicking a location.


As far as I'm aware, the only public (but user-pays) source for EC soundings is through Accuweather Pro... but even those soundings have somewhat coarse resolution (I think they might still use the lower 0.5 degree resolution version of EC).

I don't know of any free site that offers ACCESS-R and C soundings except for a password protected section of BSCH meant for designated clients.

The only other source of those soundings is through dedicated software internal to national met agencies such as the Bureau, and also internal use by Weatherzone for aviation weather forecasting, etc for certain clients.

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#1474225 - 20/10/2018 14:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Just to add to my previous post about the "I imagine it wouldn't be as easy as clicking a location." bit in your post Steve, it's actually even better (if you have access to those sounding products).

For example, one of the software programs used by some met organisations including the Bureau allows you to display roaming profiles i.e. wherever you move your mouse over the map, it'll display a small sounding for that current position that tags along with your mouse pointer.

It also allows you to view multimodel soundings using any models you choose, including realtime soundings generated by data transmitted back from suitably equipped airline aircraft.

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#1474226 - 20/10/2018 14:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Interesting cheers.

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#1474230 - 20/10/2018 14:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Any chance we might see some of this forecast activity late tonight? Seems to be charging through NSW at quite a pace.

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#1474236 - 20/10/2018 15:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
just watching some of the webcams through NSW
http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11258

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#1474252 - 20/10/2018 16:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the info re the charts Ken, I was going to ask you if there are charts exclusive to the BOM that the public cannot access and why is that the case?

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#1474255 - 20/10/2018 17:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Thanks for the info re the charts Ken, I was going to ask you if there are charts exclusive to the BOM that the public cannot access and why is that the case?

The free charts that most of the public see on sites like BSCH are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to what's actually available internally. There's a huge amount of fancy internal stuff that the wider public never get to see.

In my opinion, there's a fair proportion of those products that I think should be made public if it doesn't involve too much extra time and money on implementing and maintaining them on websites (the public website in particular is in dire need of a big revamp)... but one of the big problems is that many of those products use data from certain models that the Bureau pays a lot of money for (e.g. EC) and redistribution of that data to the wider public is strictly prohibited by the ECMWF unless the Bureau pays even more money for the relevant privileges to do that. Sites/apps like Windy and weather.us are run by people who pay a lot of money to be able to use EC data and make it available to the wider public in the formats they want.

For in-house models like ACCESS, the Bureau has the right to choose how much or little of their ACCESS data to make publicly available since they've invested a lot of time and money into developing, running and upgrading the models as well as the supercomputer the models run on.

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#1474267 - 20/10/2018 17:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
That makes sense good explanation for a good question by Gleno.

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#1474280 - 20/10/2018 19:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
So the BOM are a government organisation funded by the Government to produce weather data / forecast on super computers made available with tax payers money. See where I'm goin with this? or am I way out of line?
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#1474282 - 20/10/2018 19:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: DDstorm]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
So the BOM are a government organisation funded by the Government to produce weather data / forecast on super computers made available with tax payers money. See where I'm goin with this? or am I way out of line?

It's a government organisation which is ultimately funded by the taxpayer. Some income comes in from a commercial weather services section but most of the money is from the government i.e. taxpayer.
I believe the US still actually mandates that all data from their own (NWS) models such as GFS must be made publicly available because it's the taxpayer who funds them.

The picture becomes a bit more complicated when we're talking about data from overseas models because the overseas centres which run those models are the ones who decide what data can be redistributed for public use and how, not the Bureau. So the onus isn't really up to the Bureau to invest a lot of time and money into displaying data from models which they don't run.

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#1474283 - 20/10/2018 19:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 297
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Thx Ken, appreciate the reply
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#1474284 - 20/10/2018 19:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The radar starting to show precip creeping into the western downs still looks on track for some of that to reach here by the early morning hours. In thunderstorm form at that time not sure but would be nice to wake upto.

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#1474292 - 20/10/2018 22:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Yep agreed Steve. Either the overnight hours (has already reached parts of the eastern and southeastern Downs as I type) or early morning hours.

If the associated cloud cover stays too thick all through the daytime, it could be a complicating factor (together with some capping near the coast) for the extent & severity of any storms near coastal SE QLD later on in the day but looks to me like there'll still be enough instability to support at least some storm activity somewhere in the region later on in the day or evening (particularly if there's clearer gaps in the cloud or it's very thin high cloud, in which case some storms may become strong). Probably something to play by ear at this stage.

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#1474293 - 20/10/2018 22:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, cloud cover definitely could be an issue tomorrow. Hopefully the remnants of tonight and tomorrow morning's storms can weaken and push offshore by morning to leave us with a warm and partially sunny skies. Also, that little feature that EC was showing seems to have flattened out in the latest run and isn't anywhere near as defined as it was previously - in fact, it looks very similar to ACCESS-R now and has backed off considerably on precip as a result. Still wouldn't rule out something tomorrow though.

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#1474300 - 21/10/2018 06:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Too mch cloud, will never get to 28 if that hangs around. I didn't understand the Boms forecast yesterday of "cloudy" with possible storms, possibly severe. From my recollection in Brisbane, if it is cloudy for the day, the chance of a storm is remote especially severe. Now they backed of on the severe part. They chop and change way too much these days. I would kept it consistent and just said - cloudy with a slight chance of a storm.
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#1474301 - 21/10/2018 07:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
The main cloud band seem to be just East of Warwick now, though I think there's low to mid stuff still lingering out that way. You would be to venture west to see the start of the action.
The centre of the upper low seems to be over Moree if i'm mistaken. Don't write off today just yet, I haven't even had breakfast lol

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#1474302 - 21/10/2018 07:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Meanwhile the cloud has produced a stunning sunrise along the Gold Coast.


Lonely shell by Glen Anderson, on Flickr

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#1474303 - 21/10/2018 07:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
nice gleno
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1474305 - 21/10/2018 08:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Another 13.5mm. Might crack 200mm this month yet 😍
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1474306 - 21/10/2018 08:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Just looking at 12z forecasts.. its definitely looks unstable starting to look like a squall line setup? Don't think cloud is going to be too much of an issue maybe severe can be taken out of the forecast but even still wouldn't be surprised if a descent OFB appeared at some stage today.

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#1474307 - 21/10/2018 08:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Hope so. You can see that upper low spinning nicely on the satellite loop out near Moree.Bring on something today please Thor!

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#1474308 - 21/10/2018 08:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Should make interesting racing at the GC 600 so many times storms have been forecast on that event. Think we will have to wait until the usual diurnal maximum.

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#1474309 - 21/10/2018 08:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..21 OCT 2018 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.3C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........75%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....NE 6Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.4HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30M
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......27.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....19.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.2C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....17C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 29kph at 1425
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Slight rain from ex TS early morning.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1474310 - 21/10/2018 09:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Cloud is clearing and storms already out past Kingaroy. Game on!!!!

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#1474312 - 21/10/2018 09:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Flippy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/12/2017
Posts: 10
Clouds clearing nice and early here in Brisbane city, plenty of blue sky above. Game on then yeh??

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#1474313 - 21/10/2018 09:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Good morning all, beautiful calm morning, already 25C, sunny with a bit of cloud & 6mm wetness from this morning. Looks like a good day coming up. Bring the storms on, afternoon BBQ ready!
Great pic gleno!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/10/2018 09:43)

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#1474315 - 21/10/2018 09:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Actually looking forward to seeing this mornings observed sounding. GFS forcast has quite the cold uppers and steep lapse rates with lots of moisture.

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#1474316 - 21/10/2018 10:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
Get the feeling that little upper low movement holds the key today. If it moves east to fast it may clear things around its northern side quickly. I would like to see it move further north or slide south? Whats the educated opinions on what it will do? Models seem to indicate a northeasterly track.

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#1474317 - 21/10/2018 10:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Sillybanter]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Get the feeling that little upper low movement holds the key today. If it moves east to fast it may clear things around its northern side quickly. I would like to see it move further north or slide south? Whats the educated opinions on what it will do? Models seem to indicate a northeasterly track.

Most models currently support an E or ENE track today, skirting along or just south of the QLD/NSW border, passing over NE NSW this afternoon and then off the coast tonight.

Although the forcing from this system would be handy for storms, it can be a bit of a double edge sword because when we're downstream of it, we often get a fair bit of unwanted cloud cover and/or rainfall.

In saying that though, there should still be enough breaks in the cloud cover today to support storms at least somewhere in our region, if not everywhere.

BTW in case anyone's wondering if the dregs from that inland band made it to the coast, it reached the western half of the greater Brisbane region, among other areas: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR662-brisbane/2018-10-20-11/2018-10-20-21

P.S. and yes, that cold air in the midlevels associated with the low should help too. Some of the areas that don't get excessively saturated profiles may even get some decent hail.

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#1474323 - 21/10/2018 12:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Overcast now with dark clouds gathering, calm & warm 26C.

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#1474325 - 21/10/2018 12:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Very warm and humid down here lots of sunshine . .something should give later🤗

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#1474326 - 21/10/2018 12:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
There's already a rapid development of showers and storms tracking across parts of the Downs with some more localised activity popping up closer to the coast.

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#1474327 - 21/10/2018 13:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1831
Loc: Kingaroy
Nothing yet in Kingaroy so far although we did get ten millimetres of rain last night. On the water vapor chart there is a lot of dry air towards the north, if the upper low ingests some of that dry air the storm risk could lower significantly.


Edited by Chris Stumer (21/10/2018 13:51)

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#1474330 - 21/10/2018 14:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
T.rex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 68
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
The rain is just beginning in Eastern Toowoomba, but only a few spots so far, and there is a bit of thunder rolling around. Temperature here is 21 deg.
_________________________
Mike,

On the Edge of the Range.

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#1474331 - 21/10/2018 14:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: T.rex]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
106km/h wind gust was reported at Toowoomba at 1:20pm

91km/h wind gust was reported at Oakey at 1:10pm

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#1474332 - 21/10/2018 14:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The cells popping up in front of the main line are very pulsey. I would have rather they didn't develop at all so the main line at Toowoomba has clear air approaching the coast.

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#1474333 - 21/10/2018 14:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks very much like EC has pulled this one off to a large extent. I've compared GFS runs from 12z Friday to 12z Saturday to show the sudden shift towards the EC solution:


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#1474335 - 21/10/2018 14:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
256k Mt Stappy is showing a solid bow echo squall line and very strong winds behind the system. natures Fury has already mentioned some of the wind gusts. Must be a good rear flank downdraft or feeder into the storm system .


Edited by Colin Maitland (21/10/2018 14:38)
Edit Reason: iPad troubles
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#1474336 - 21/10/2018 14:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
256k Mt Stappy is showing a solid bow echo squall line and very strong winds behind the system as Naturesfury has already mentioned some of the wind gusts. Must be a good rear flank downdraft or feeder into the storm system .


Reckon it will make the coast with current strength?

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#1474337 - 21/10/2018 14:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
256k Mt Stappy is showing a solid bow echo squall line and very strong winds behind the system as Naturesfury has already mentioned some of the wind gusts. Must be a good rear flank downdraft or feeder into the storm system .


Reckon it will make the coast with current strength?


I was wondering the same thing.

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#1474338 - 21/10/2018 14:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 946
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Toowoomba recording gusts over 100km/h for last 10 mins

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#1474339 - 21/10/2018 14:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
256k Mt Stappy is showing a solid bow echo squall line and very strong winds behind the system as Naturesfury has already mentioned some of the wind gusts. Must be a good rear flank downdraft or feeder into the storm system .


Reckon it will make the coast with current strength?


I'd be more confident if those first cells didn't develop ahead of the main line as you said.

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#1474340 - 21/10/2018 14:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I believe it will, since posting a few minutes ago and fixing IPad rubbish another line is forming in front of the bigger system to the west of it. We have thunder now at Bracken Ridge. Just exploding very quickly.


Edited by Colin Maitland (21/10/2018 14:43)
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#1474341 - 21/10/2018 14:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Brisbane CBD and south in for a fun ride next half hour, hopefully something interesting comes out of the line behind it.
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#1474342 - 21/10/2018 14:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Check out the Toowoomba obs at 1:20pm, wind gust of 109km/h, temp of 11.8C and a feels like of -4.7!!
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#1474343 - 21/10/2018 14:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: LightningGus]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Check out the Toowoomba obs at 1:20pm, wind gust of 109km/h, temp of 11.8C and a feels like of -4.7!!


Epic downdrafts no doubt, haha.

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#1474344 - 21/10/2018 14:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Excellent..

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#1474345 - 21/10/2018 14:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I haven’t fired up the laptop or the main computer so I am only using my IPad. It makes the forum harder to follow. The radar sweeps with 128K and Doppler hinting at rotation in the large cell which has speed up a bit. Could be a wild ride shortly.
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#1474346 - 21/10/2018 14:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
T.rex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 68
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
Well that was short and sweet. 28mm in less than 30 minutes, a fair bit of thunder, and lots of wind, but I only recorded 32kph. That is total rubbish, with 100+kph wind only 6 kms from here, and I have only seen such strong & blustery wind a few times before.

The storm's gone off into the Lockyer Valley now, and Mad Elf should get it shortly.

BTW, The temp dropped from 21 to 11 deg in about 10 minutes, and is now climbing back up, 14 deg now.


Edited by T.rex (21/10/2018 14:54)
Edit Reason: added comment
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#1474347 - 21/10/2018 14:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
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Registered: 01/11/2001
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Loc: Bardon 4065
Thundering around the hills here at the moment although no rain yet. Hate to be a Supercar driver at Surfers Paradise this afternoon.
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#1474348 - 21/10/2018 14:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Trying to fire up laptop. Trying to upload track path in the latest warning.
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#1474349 - 21/10/2018 14:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Typical. Storm leaps across western suburbs and now bombing over most of Brisbane.

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#1474350 - 21/10/2018 14:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Sandstorm is copping the brunt of that first cell right now in Highvale.


Edited by CirrusFibratus (21/10/2018 14:58)
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#1474351 - 21/10/2018 15:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looking mighty NICEEE!
HOLY CRAP ITS BLOWING
Wouldnt doubt that 100kph gust at all!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/10/2018 15:06)

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#1474352 - 21/10/2018 15:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The main line behind is starting to favour SC regions. The bow echo is leading toward the NE side, the winds on Doppler are strengthening in the northern half and weakening in the southern and SC has mostly clear skies instead. I expect the southern half will become a big thundery mess as it collides with the pre-line storms.

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#1474353 - 21/10/2018 15:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
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Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
track path

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#1474354 - 21/10/2018 15:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
That entire first band it really thickening up.

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#1474355 - 21/10/2018 15:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Plenty of light and noise here at Salisbury but not much else yet (tiny bit of rain but not much, no wind)....looks worse on the radar then we are actually getting currently

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#1474356 - 21/10/2018 15:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Grey thundery messy lookin stuff here at Elanora near Currumbin but happy to hear the rumbles

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#1474357 - 21/10/2018 15:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Gona her real interesting here in a jif.

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#1474358 - 21/10/2018 15:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Too mch cloud, will never get to 28 if that hangs around. I didn't understand the Boms forecast yesterday of "cloudy" with possible storms, possibly severe. From my recollection in Brisbane, if it is cloudy for the day, the chance of a storm is remote especially severe. Now they backed of on the severe part. They chop and change way too much these days. I would kept it consistent and just said - cloudy with a slight chance of a storm.


You still sure about that? poke



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#1474359 - 21/10/2018 15:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Namarrkun]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
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Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 629
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Plenty of light and noise here at Salisbury but not much else yet (tiny bit of rain but not much, no wind)....looks worse on the radar then we are actually getting currently


Agree - just a little bit of rain nothing much else here to date. No wind at all.
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#1474360 - 21/10/2018 15:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
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Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 938
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
Rain picking up right now in Everton Park. Love this.
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#1474361 - 21/10/2018 15:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
just took a snap at some egg shell mammatus cloud with a dinosaur shell next to it (technically called udders). it all my years it would be the biggest mammatus udder cloud I have ever seen. It should be visible towards the city.

just having trouble with my computers as google have actually hacked my account. Need to IT it tomorrow.
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#1474362 - 21/10/2018 15:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
About to get rocked here, nastiest looking storm I have seen here in about 5 years, incredible.

Will report back later if we have power shocked
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#1474363 - 21/10/2018 15:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
multiple black cores in the cell over Boondall and us.A very cold breeze feeding into the storm here which I haven't felt for a long time. Just need to see how it pans out.
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#1474364 - 21/10/2018 15:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
just took a snap at some egg shell mammatus cloud with a dinosaur shell next to it (technically called udders). it all my years it would be the biggest mammatus udder cloud I have ever seen. It should be visible towards the city.

just having trouble with my computers as google have actually hacked my account. Need to IT it tomorrow.


It's really developing your way. Might get some good hail at this rate.

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#1474365 - 21/10/2018 15:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
storms Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/03/2005
Posts: 30
Loc: Bribie Island
Hail at Arana Hills, about 3cm in size and round

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#1474366 - 21/10/2018 15:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 938
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
Small hail, Everton Park. Rain has increased.
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#1474367 - 21/10/2018 15:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Churning of the lower cloud is spectacular here. Now the rain and a bit of wind is in. The odd piece of pea size hail.

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#1474368 - 21/10/2018 15:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2937
Loc: Mt Warren Park
rain, rumbles and a few flashes - that's all so far at Mount Warren Park ......... no wind - the air is still ...
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#1474369 - 21/10/2018 15:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Marble hail here, rain blowing sideways with painful force, our 2 inch deep bird bath filled in about 2 minutes.

I reckon we copped the worst of the black core here.
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#1474370 - 21/10/2018 15:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Wonder if there will be more hail at the back end of this.

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#1474371 - 21/10/2018 15:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
WeatherNut96 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2015
Posts: 69
Loc: Cleveland, Brisbane
Cleveland dome holding fast for now.

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#1474372 - 21/10/2018 15:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Sillybanter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Toowoomba
Was impressive storm here in South Toowoomba 34mm and very windy.

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#1474373 - 21/10/2018 15:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
bber36 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 104
Loc: Albany Creek Qld
Small hail here at Albany Creek. Bit of wind for a bit now lots of rain. Dont know if my daughters netball training will be on at 4.30 though.
Unfortunately foxtel went out so cannot see possible carnage at V8's
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#1474375 - 21/10/2018 16:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Energex site showing about 10,000 homes without power now in Brisbane Area, including us. Going to be a long night for them.


Edited by CirrusFibratus (21/10/2018 16:02)
Edit Reason: Updated to add 2000 in time it took to post.
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#1474376 - 21/10/2018 16:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
Wind gusts kicking in here now at Salisbury

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#1474377 - 21/10/2018 16:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Very heavy rain, a fair bit of hail for this area with the largest I could see being 2cm+. Larger hail hit the front but could not see the size due to no windows downstairs and very strong winds. Good lightning with good cracks of thunder.
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#1474378 - 21/10/2018 16:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: CirrusFibratus]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Looks like the storms have massed into a large area of strong winds and heavy rain. Everyone will get a drink.

We had a lot of rain and some big gusts through here. The clouds were very low and moving extremely fast even though on radar it looks very slow-moving.

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#1474379 - 21/10/2018 16:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Golf Ball size hail (~4cm) was reported at Aspley

56mm of rain was recorded at Bundamba (Ipswich area) in 30 minutes

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#1474380 - 21/10/2018 16:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
whynot Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/10/2001
Posts: 541
Loc: Brisbane
We had 1-2cm hail at Bracken Ridge. I hope everyone has been using the WeatheX - Weather Extremes Reporting app to take pictures of the hail (and including a ruler in the picture) to help Dr Joshua Soderholm refine and calibrate radar observations.

edit: added link to Monash article

https://www.monash.edu/science/news/current/hail-the-new-storm-app-for-citizen-scientists



Edited by whynot (21/10/2018 16:12)

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#1474381 - 21/10/2018 16:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: whynot]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Some great pictures on SBS of the supercell structure on the northside.

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#1474382 - 21/10/2018 16:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Just experience d a couple of massive gunshot thunderclaps here at Elanora right overhead . .Wow !!

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#1474383 - 21/10/2018 16:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Mt Stapylton has been knocked out?

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#1474385 - 21/10/2018 16:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Just had a nice gunshot one here in the Redlands. It's been a while!

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#1474386 - 21/10/2018 16:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Mt Stapylton has been knocked out?


Looking like it frown

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#1474387 - 21/10/2018 16:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3581
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bit of strong winds after the initial gust front, mor wind than rain, only 5.5mm & still spitting.

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#1474388 - 21/10/2018 16:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Sun will be out within an hour from the looks of it. A surreal way to end of a pretty wild storm day.

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#1474389 - 21/10/2018 16:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
The radar itself isn't completely down - just that the data from the scans at certain angles didn't come through (the radar images on public websites is a composite of scans done at various angles to represent a constant height).

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#1474390 - 21/10/2018 16:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
weatheriam Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 61
Loc: Redlands
Appears back in the last frame.

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#1474391 - 21/10/2018 16:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 64
Could we see anymore action this evening or is this it you guys reckon? smile

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#1474392 - 21/10/2018 16:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Hi Belgarad. Depends where you live. This is going to hang around a bit . I have to say that it was one of the longest STW red warnings images I have ever seen. Must be from Lismore to past Maroochydoore. I am on my phone so I don't know if I can download it and upload it.


Edited by Colin Maitland (21/10/2018 16:42)
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#1474393 - 21/10/2018 16:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Way cold here at the moment. Well these storms were the fastest forming i have seen and looked awesome until they decided to break and go to strathpine. Thundery mess here now and no extreme weather at all at windsor. Incredible radar images before they hit brisbane. But they dropped too much cold air on the inner northside.
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#1474394 - 21/10/2018 16:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Way cold here at the moment. Well these storms were the fastest forming i have seen and looked awesome until they decided to break and go to strathpine. Thundery mess here now and no extreme weather at all at windsor. Incredible radar images before they hit brisbane. But they dropped too much cold air on the inner northside.

Was the Bureau's forecast still wrong? poke

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#1474395 - 21/10/2018 16:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
yeah it was right in the end, but only because the cloud cleared, They did say cloudy though, but anyway i thought after it cleared we would get something. Today i just lived in the wrong suburb smile Definately all finnished for the Day though. Way too cold
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#1474398 - 21/10/2018 17:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3437
Loc: Buderim
Toowoomba top of 21. Satellites suggested general cloud over SEQ, with clear spots towards the coast. Toowoomba had a gust over 100km/h. Cloud didn't seem to stop the storms out at Toowoomba.

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#1474399 - 21/10/2018 17:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: paulcirrus]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
For the records:

106km/h wind gust was reported at Toowoomba at 1:20pm

91km/h wind gust was reported at Oakey at 1:10pm

96km/h wind gust at Gatton at 2:01pm

2-3cm hail was reported northeast of Boonah

Golf Ball size hail (~4cm) was reported at Aspley

56mm of rain was recorded at Bundamba (Ipswich area) in 30 minute

42mm of rain was recorded at Mount Tamborine in 15 minutes, 73m within an hour.


Focus now shifts north to SC, WBB and Central QLD where some discrete supercells have fired up.

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#1474400 - 21/10/2018 17:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I have said this numerous times for many years on this forum and others and that is, do not write a storm day off because there is cloud cover about or if we are going to get storms they wont be severe or not as severe because of cloud cover.

Go back over the years and look at my posts. After 50 plus years I learnt that it is a myth. If you have the atmospheric energy needed you will get storms.
I have been in so many now. I have even been in good storms while it has been cold and snowing. My parents came from Scotland and told me but I didn't really believe them until I witnessed them.
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#1474402 - 21/10/2018 17:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Yep, it's also been re-hashed on this forum over and over again smile How much of an effect cloud cover has on storms depends on how much there is, how long it lasts, whether it's patchy thin high cirrus or thicker cloud, how unstable the atmosphere is despite the cloud cover, approaching systems, etc.

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#1474403 - 21/10/2018 17:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1573
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
To the cloud people, if you read my post i explained how the cloud cleared. You can see in my post this then changed my mind. Move on. It would be a different story if their was a solid cover all day. Thanks smile
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#1474404 - 21/10/2018 17:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
To the cloud people, if you read my post i explained how the cloud cleared. You can see in my post this then changed my mind. Move on. It would be a different story if their was a solid cover all day. Thanks smile

Often but not always - refer to this post:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...sto#Post1472220

We've had a number of cases in the past where substantial cloud cover has lasted for much of the daytime and didn't start clearing until around 3pm... at which point, storms suddenly formed on the rear edge of cloudbands and moved across the region.
But this only happens if there's enough instability and/or forcing from synoptic features so is more an exception rather than the norm. Still something that shouldn't be ignored though.

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#1474405 - 21/10/2018 17:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1195
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Well, usually I'll be the first one to complain if I miss a good storm but I'm very happy to say we only copped the side of the rain from that big bugger. I actually raced it out of Dalby after reports of hail in Dalby got me moving a bit quicker LOL. I've no idea when I last updated but I can now say we've cracked 182mm for the month!!! C'mon! I'm sure in 8 days we can crack 200mm for October LOL. Strangest month ever. Today was super weird for a storm day.
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Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1474406 - 21/10/2018 17:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1495
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
.....

Focus now shifts north to SC, WBB and Central QLD where some discrete supercells have fired up.
Discrete is certainly the word! We got a small touch of the top end of the bigger system , only a few mls but nice enough.
But now there are these black rumbling masses to the SW & W of us that don't show on any radar/satellite image yet. I daresay we'll lose the sunset soon to those cells. But I think they will grow & slip South of us.
Best part - too wet to mow , darn shame that!
and on another matter, aww nuffin.... evillaugh
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#1474407 - 21/10/2018 17:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
12.8mm here at Wynnum Nth plus max gust 40kph gust at 1520.

As mostly happens this half of the storm season, the TS died before getting here due cool Moreton Bay sea temp. Our better ones occur in late Jan - Feb as the SST is a lot higher locally.

The only times we tend to get big TS's this time of the year are the ones ( not many ) which travel up from the south, as their leading edge still has warmer land temps to keep them going.


Edited by retired weather man (21/10/2018 17:59)
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1474409 - 21/10/2018 18:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 119
Absolute cracker of a storm at Warner.

60mm in short time, with rain rates up around 190mm/hr before it failed.

No power and no internet.

Significant tree damage and full tree defoliationaround cashmere, Warner bray park and Joyner.

I lived at the gap for the gap storm and would find this one today comparable.
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#1474412 - 21/10/2018 18:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1167
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I’m not surprised bunya , cashmere , Warner got the best of it. I left Bunnings brendale just before it came and it looked decidedly nasty over that area. I hauled a$$ home to get car under cover. Ended up visually spectacular with the rotation of low lifting cloud . Ended up just perfect here , 40mm. There’s something about Sunday storms....

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#1474414 - 21/10/2018 19:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
martyface Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 92
Loc: Bellbowrie
Anyone think the stuff coming from the south will reach up here? Quite breezy at times during the height of storm here

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#1474415 - 21/10/2018 19:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: martyface]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
It's some activity wrapping around the back end of the upper low I think? I don't see it having the legs to move up here considering the upper low is moving east out to sea.

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#1474416 - 21/10/2018 19:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 64
Is that activity south of the border developing along what looks like a southerly change shown here in the GFS model.



Edited by Belgarad (21/10/2018 19:19)

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#1474418 - 21/10/2018 19:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
As crap as these cells look on radar, the lightning is fantastic.

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#1474419 - 21/10/2018 19:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Belgarad]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
There is a southerly in play, but I still think it's activity sliding up the backside of the upper low. Look at the squall line that moved off the coast. The line is actually rotating toward the south-east (how often do we ever see that!).

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#1474420 - 21/10/2018 19:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Some models such as EC also still suggest the surface low will consolidate a bit more tonight as it drifts just off the SE QLD/NE NSW coastal border before drifting a bit further northeast then eventually washing out into a trough.

If this happens, it'd flick up slightly more stable S to SE winds up its backside over us which would then mean any thunderstorm activity tomorrow would be more localised than today (but not necessarily absent).

A few what-if's would have to come together for that to happen first however.

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#1474421 - 21/10/2018 19:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This is awesome...CGs everywhere lol

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#1474422 - 21/10/2018 19:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Also that would makes sense Ken when ACCESSS R wasn't showing much precip tomorrow for the SE corner but further north looked better for tomorrow.

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#1474425 - 21/10/2018 20:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It's as if the radar is overestimating rainfall from this cell. Plenty of lightning but the rain barely even got past light believe it or not.

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#1474426 - 21/10/2018 20:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1796
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
https://www.facebook.com/ABCSouthernQueensland/videos
/197586321040992/


I seen this on facebook down here I thought I would put it on here.


Edited by Stormy3 (21/10/2018 20:47)
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1474429 - 21/10/2018 21:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1224
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Ended up with 16mm today. 12mm early am and 4mm from the tail end of the storms up here this arvo
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1474431 - 21/10/2018 21:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
24mm here. Down pipes couldn’t keep up. Street gutters and drains were working overtime. The heavy rain fell in a short period .
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#1474433 - 21/10/2018 21:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Warwick, QLD
We had 11.5mm last night and very early this morning from a nice steady rain. We had a brief TS this arvo which added about 5mm, not exactly sure the exact amount as I have not had a chance to check. We now have about 123mm for the month! Good stuff!
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#1474434 - 21/10/2018 21:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Spinning away nicely out there got to love abit of vorticity and refreshingly cool.

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#1474438 - 21/10/2018 22:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Vicious flangs occurring here from this second cell. Jumped out of my skin a few times.

Edit: This storm is much better than the one earlier. Torrential rain and a good sprinkling of hail too.

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#1474442 - 21/10/2018 23:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: zuldjan]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 119
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Absolute cracker of a storm at Warner.

60mm in short time, with rain rates up around 190mm/hr before it failed.

No power and no internet.

Significant tree damage and full tree defoliationaround cashmere, Warner bray park and Joyner.

I lived at the gap for the gap storm and would find this one today comparable.



Got the data off my weather station, and absolutely astounding rain rates

Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.

Only 39 mm through the rain gauge which can be attributed to wind, with 58 mm in the bck up nylex.

Unfortunately my wind gauge stopped recording, but it recorded a gust of 52knots.(whilst I know the wind was strong( the wind vane is on the pitch of the roof and may be affected by upslope winds?)
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#1474446 - 22/10/2018 07:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 476
Loc: Salisbury
7.1mm from yesterday’s storms here at Salisbury....first cell was basically just a light and sound show with no wind at all, second much bigger cell was more rain and when the wind gusts kicked in....no hail in either cell for us.
Have seen pics of sister inlaws yard at Warner, thier backyard was covered in pea sized hail


Edited by Namarrkun (22/10/2018 07:17)

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#1474448 - 22/10/2018 08:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..22 OCT 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......20.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........86%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....W 7Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1016.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud, decreasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........13.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......28.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....14.2C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....17C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..W 40kph at 1520
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Decaying thunderstorm mid afternoon, clearing early evening.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1474449 - 22/10/2018 08:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Here's some severe wx reports from people reported to the WeatheX app during the 24hrs up to 6am today:





I'm still thinking that even though today's official forecast for places like Brisbane currently say "chance of a thunderstorm in the west", any storms will be far more localised and less severe today (if any at all) due to the somewhat more stable and drier S to SE'ly flow flicking up over us on the backside of the offshore weak low.
As per my previous post, that cold air aloft with the upper low really helped yesterday.

P.S. thanks for the reports zuldjan and sharing that fb link Stormy3

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#1474450 - 22/10/2018 09:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 418
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Totally agree Zuldjan, one of the wildest storms we've had here.

Massive amounts of tree litter all over the roads afterwards. One of our neighbour's trees (about 20ft high) was ripped straight out of the ground.

Practically every for sale sign in brendale was flattened from what I saw.

Had 40mm in about 10 minutes.
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#1474451 - 22/10/2018 09:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
Yeah Access C only hinting some activity on the range in Northern NSW and Warwick. And west of Bundaberg and Rocky etc. Upper low off the coast now. Think it will be a quiet day.

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#1474452 - 22/10/2018 09:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 859
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Oh well, everyone certainly got their storm fix yesterday hopefully.I have brought this up before and I know other factors must come into play but cooler temps across the southern and eastern half of Ausright through till late September set us up for strong storms with hail for our stormy months in October till December

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#1474453 - 22/10/2018 09:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1677
Loc: Australia
I was disappointed with my chase yesterday, though I was out at Gatton in the firing line of the Toowoomba storm, I couldn't see a visible shelf cloud. There were storms that formed east of this one they may have had something to do with it. Was a lot of messy cloud as well. It was actually raining well before the storm hit, normally the bulk of the rain is at the back end of the storm? The structures were more defined when the storms reached the coast.

Untitled [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/94869731@N06/][/url]

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#1474457 - 22/10/2018 10:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: zuldjan]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 728
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
[quote=zuldjan]
Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.


Wow! And here I was thinking the 75mm/hr I recorded at home yesterday was impressive.

343mm/hr would be a complete whiteout?
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#1474459 - 22/10/2018 11:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Mezo]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 119
Originally Posted By: Mezo
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
[quote=zuldjan]
Peak rain rate of 343mm/hr, and over the next 5 minutes a few peaks and troughs ranging from 343-100 and then bck to 259mm/hr.


Wow! And here I was thinking the 75mm/hr I recorded at home yesterday was impressive.

343mm/hr would be a complete whiteout?


Absolute white out - I’ll upload a video shortlyn
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#1474462 - 22/10/2018 14:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4832
Loc: Wynnum
2 small lows forming off SEQ in the space of week, suggesting a westward shift of the LWT.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1474483 - 22/10/2018 20:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
This was an impressive event. Appears that the forecast timing in the operational consensus forecast on met eye was on the mark.
RWM what do you mean by shift of the LWT?
Good photo Gleno


Edited by Flowin (22/10/2018 20:08)
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#1474484 - 22/10/2018 20:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Flowin]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
This was an impressive event. Appears that the forecast timing in the operational consensus forecast on met eye was on the mark.
RWM what do you mean by shift of the LWT?
Good photo Gleno


Hi Flowin, I hope I am not stepping on RWM toes but LWT is abbreviation for Long Wave Trough. It is also one of the ingredients that helps generates the waves in the ocean as well.. I hope that is the LWT RWM was discussing. 🤔😁🌊🏄‍♂️


Edited by Colin Maitland (22/10/2018 20:24)
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#1474486 - 22/10/2018 20:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC deserves a lot of praise for being the first model to run with the second circulation idea from its Friday afternoon run. I honestly thought it was an error but it stuck to its guns and was pretty spot on in the end.

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#1474487 - 22/10/2018 20:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
LWT = long wave troughs which, in the atmospheric/weather context, are basically troughs of very long wavelengths. There’s typically around 3 to 5 of them in each hemisphere at any given time, they can be mobile/progressive, stationary or even retrograde and when individual lows pass through them, they tend to surge up towards lower latitudes, peak, then slide back down again. They’re a big factor in determining the general kind of weather regime a given area experienced over a number of days or weeks together with long wave ridges) depending on their mobility and amplitude.

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#1474488 - 22/10/2018 20:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks Colin.
Agree Mega. The circulation on the radar was clear.
And thanks Ken

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#1474489 - 22/10/2018 20:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7326
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Going by http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=hemisphere&lc=sh&mt=gfshem&mc=longwave&mso=0&mh=0&focus=mh , our long wave trough is poking up through South Australia and there is another one east of New Zealand. I'm not sure what their movement has been like of late though since I haven't been keeping tabs on it.

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#1474493 - 22/10/2018 20:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Colin Maitland Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2533
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I just had a look and my interest in them is the generation of waves and the West Coast of New Zealand and the Southern tip of Tassie is predicted to reach a 5 - 6 Meter swell. I bet you WSL or Rip Curl XXL would be keeping an eye on it. There is a break off group of big wave riders that will drop everything and find the biggest wave for the week/month.
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#1474498 - 22/10/2018 20:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 552
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I assume LWT is influenced from South, so can this extend to remote influence on TCs from the equator?
And more influence on ECLs south of Fraser? Assuming that most ECLs are a southern phenomenon but some are extra tropical cyclones


Edited by Flowin (22/10/2018 21:03)

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#1474502 - 22/10/2018 21:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Usually its the instability from the trough that aids in the development of an ECL if your are talking about long wave pattern in the mid/upper levels. Also they have influenced TCs in the past which they have helped destroy TCs and send it to the graveyard.


Edited by Steve O (22/10/2018 21:45)

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#1474504 - 22/10/2018 21:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2247
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
Going by http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=hemisphere&lc=sh&mt=gfshem&mc=longwave&mso=0&mh=0&focus=mh , our long wave trough is poking up through South Australia and there is another one east of New Zealand. I'm not sure what their movement has been like of late though since I haven't been keeping tabs on it.


Bottom post. It's been active in our area for quite a while.

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
2 great posts from Mike in the Climate Drivers thread that might explain why we are having an active start to the storm season after the long dry spell:

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think this is indicative of why mature el nino is not so bad for rainfall outside the tropics.



Here tropical activity is focused a long way east out near Fiji. The deep tropical trades are blocked out near Fiji, so until the NW monsoon flow can get going later in summer the tropics are bit starved for moisture. But once tropical activity pushes this far east there is room for a nice long high pressure ridge through subtropics allowing reasonable moisture to reach the subtropical parts of Australia. Not as good as when the tropics and subtropics are both pumping in moisture, but not bad either.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Petros

....so you are expecting good October rains for much of Aus SE?


Normal el nino influence is for rains to improve for most of NSW and subtropical Qld through Spring. Tropical Qld and Vic/Tas have to wait more towards summer before dry conditions ease. IOD also looks poor for Vic/SA but thats not really my thing.

The Polar Vortex seems to have been extending in Australia'ss direction a lot in the last couple months. Lots of upper troughs seem to be giving SEQ a pretty good start to the storm season, and I'd imagine it would be helping SE Australia as well. Don't know why this is happening or how long it will continue for.

See the big area of blue anomalies on this 90 day chart representing more frequent upper troughing in Australia's region.



I remember commenting back last year that there was a 3-node pattern, whereas the longwave trough is usually described as alternating between 4 or 5 nodes. ENSO tends to set one node in SE Pacific, and the 3 node pattern seems to set up a favorable node near Australia for El nino instead of peak upper troughing being near NZ and SE Indian Ocean in a 4 node pattern.


Edited by Nature's Fury (22/10/2018 22:00)

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#1474505 - 22/10/2018 22:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3297
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yep its been there many times just needed warm moist air for it.
Here's next week.

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#1474507 - 22/10/2018 23:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 582
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Some of us would had loved to be in a few places at once during that storm line crossing.
Noice pics again gleno .

Unfortunately the Goldy didn't fair well with lightning or structure, just a rumbling rain event - 20mm at home while I ventured out under a bridge for near 2hrs waiting for the Q1 onslaught of amperage strikes, not-to-be, only one tiny hit found in 450 frames, ha !
So I sees the clear line of sky to the west coming over after, and thought to move into the open. traveled for just a few k's east toward Surfers Para and seen the Q1 hit twice, Sheeze ! !

Anywho, this Rainbow made up for some of the time spent...





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#1474516 - 23/10/2018 08:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms & High chance of showers 21/10/18 - 22/10/18 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5554
Awesome shots PlumbBob. Love those colours.

And great shot of the mammatus as well gleno.

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