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#1474642 - 25/10/2018 15:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Weird old day - looking at the sky you’d think we had a chance of a convective shower or 2 - yet another below average day.

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#1474643 - 25/10/2018 16:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 118
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
20.0° C high today; 22.8° C yesterday. Seems to be established >20° C from here onwards; let us hope this heat continues into Summer! grin

I can't wait for >27° C days to start kicking in. Hopefully we break our 34.5° C record high (1,148 m), too. I deserve a properly hot, stormy Summer after that piss-poor "Winter"!

I wish to see >35° C next Summer. F—ken oath, please let it happen.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1474646 - 25/10/2018 16:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2044
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Looks like this time next week it will start getting very warm though.

I need to see the Penrith forecast have at least 4 consecutive 30+ days before I get excited about the heat.
Even then it's questionable whether I'll be suffering in my suit in the streets of the CBD. And, in the words of agent 86, loving it.

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#1474647 - 25/10/2018 16:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Mostly cloudy morning, mostly sunny afternoon here.

Sydney OH is on track to finish the month with min-max averaging 14.8 - 21.6. Anomalies are +1.2, -0.6 against all 160 years and +0.4, -1.2 for 1981-2010.

It's cooler than most recent Octobers but 2009 (21.4) was cooler, 2003 was the same and 1992 (21.1) was cooler. So in terms if recent decades it looks like a roughly once in 10 year cool. Octobers this cool were more common up to the 1980s.

Another unusual statistic that might still happen: It hasn't reached 26 yet at OH this month and is not forecast to do so until the last day. The last time October failed to reach 26 was 1903. The last time it failed to reach 27 was 1976 and the last time it failed to reach 30 was 2010. The new forecast now has a last minute 29 for the 31st, but cloud, a sea breeze or an early sneaky Southerly and either of the first two dismal records could still happen.

As for rain, that seems to be mostly finished for the month, apart from a couple of light showers. Most of Sydney will finish a little ahead of where it is now, about double the October average or a bit more.


Edited by Steve777 (25/10/2018 16:58)
Edit Reason: Tidy up

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#1474648 - 25/10/2018 16:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Antarctic Whaler]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6000
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Antarctic Whaler
20.0° C high today; 22.8° C yesterday. Seems to be established >20° C from here onwards; let us hope this heat continues into Summer! grin

I can't wait for >27° C days to start kicking in. Hopefully we break our 34.5° C record high (1,148 m), too. I deserve a properly hot, stormy Summer after that piss-poor "Winter"!

I wish to see >35° C next Summer. F—ken oath, please let it happen.


It's interesting to hear your views on wanting more heat, and Rob G's views on the lack of rainfall. You guys aren't really that far apart, distance wise.


Edited by Homer (25/10/2018 16:59)

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#1474656 - 25/10/2018 17:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8597
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Pretty unusual statistic there re: possibility of not reaching 26C since 1903! There is a fair bit of cloud forecast however the SST anomalies just offshore have rocketed up to +4C so anything could happen I guess. Plenty of fuel there if we get the trigger that's for sure

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#1474657 - 25/10/2018 17:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 118
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Homer
It's interesting to hear your views on wanting more heat, and Rob G's views on the lack of rainfall. You guys aren't really that far apart, distance wise.

I want a very stormy (i.e. high rainfall), hot Summer. Two-in-one, so to speak. I absolutely hate drought and endlessly sunny, boring stable weather...especially since I am a grazier!

Perhaps I am even closer to Porters Retreat than my location suggests, owing to the fact that I reside much closer to Shooters Hill than to Black Springs; I merely use Black Springs as my location so that Shooters Hill isn't confused for the bloody summit laugh
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1474698 - 25/10/2018 22:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 979
Loc: Cammeray
I’m jealous of the QLDers - 36C in Brisbane tomorrow! It’s unusual, isn’t it, for them to get such heat without the SE getting it a day or two earlier?

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#1474705 - 26/10/2018 07:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A beautiful sunny morning swallowed by a pall of grey gloom.

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#1474706 - 26/10/2018 08:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2044
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Funny to read the above posts.
I heard the Brisbane forecast as I was getting dressed and thought those bastards have got our weather.
But at least it is sunny here I thought.
Then as I travelled over the Harbour Bridge the grey and gloomy overcast moved over and plunged us into a half light misery.

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#1474711 - 26/10/2018 10:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
October 2018 looks like it will go out below average, but near every model is hinting the first couple of days of November may contain some heat.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1474715 - 26/10/2018 10:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The grey muck over Sydney (technical term) is thinning out and will probably break up soon. It's been sunny in Sydney's outer West and Deep South for a while.

Quote:
October 2018 looks like it will go out below average, but near every model is hinting the first couple of days of November may contain some heat.

Yes, that's what I see too. Looks like an early Southerly on the 31st according to EC and GFS, so the 31st won't be that warm, although November 2 and 3 look hot at this stage.

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#1474721 - 26/10/2018 12:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 747
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The grey muck over Sydney (technical term) is thinning out and will probably break up soon. It's been sunny in Sydney's outer West and Deep South for a while.

Quote:
October 2018 looks like it will go out below average, but near every model is hinting the first couple of days of November may contain some heat.

Yes, that's what I see too. Looks like an early Southerly on the 31st according to EC and GFS, so the 31st won't be that warm, although November 2 and 3 look hot at this stage.


For Sydney and the Illawara perhaps. Everywhere else in the state will be above average, both minima and maxima.

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#1474725 - 26/10/2018 13:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Rob G]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Rob G
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The grey muck over Sydney (technical term) is thinning out and will probably break up soon. It's been sunny in Sydney's outer West and Deep South for a while.

Quote:
October 2018 looks like it will go out below average, but near every model is hinting the first couple of days of November may contain some heat.

Yes, that's what I see too. Looks like an early Southerly on the 31st according to EC and GFS, so the 31st won't be that warm, although November 2 and 3 look hot at this stage.


For Sydney and the Illawara perhaps. Everywhere else in the state will be above average, both minima and maxima.


Agree, and I will say it again - a combination of cold sea temperatures with endless Se winds, and bugger all westerlies
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1474726 - 26/10/2018 13:32 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Rob G]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rob G
For Sydney and the Illawara perhaps. Everywhere else in the state will be above average, both minima and maxima.


Not quite true. It appears anywhere east of ranges is cooler; and west warmer.

And the warmth west is more reflected in minima than maxima and this would be in part due to the higher DP's associated with the unstable weather the State has experienced.


Edited by Kino (26/10/2018 13:33)

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#1474747 - 27/10/2018 10:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A beautiful sunny morning here with light Westerlies and small, fluffy white clouds. It's about 22 degrees across the metro area. The seabreeze is up and running on the coast and will slowly work its way inland.

Minor statistic: today is the sixth consecutive day without rain at OH after rain was recorded on 16 of the previous 18 days.

It looks like we have the first heatwave of the coming Summer towards the end of next week, with 35 forecast across Sydney on Friday. Saturday looks even hotter. Penrith has a run of four 30+ days starting Tuesday to finish the month and this will extend into November. There's a cool change next Sunday, the timing of which the models disagree. Sunday the 4th might also be very hot. The models also disagree what happens next, with Access seeing a return to a cooler pattern to start with, while heat resumes under GFS.

The models don't show much rain, although GFS hints at a wetter pattern towards the end of its run.


Edited by Steve777 (27/10/2018 11:01)
Edit Reason: Clarify

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#1474777 - 28/10/2018 09:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4441
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Cool, cloudy and windy this morning with a few patches of blue earlier.

I was woken by wind and fairly heavy rain around 4:00AM. Thought I might have heard thunder but I checked the radar just now and there was no lightning around this morning, so I must have dreamt it.

There were some decent falls around Sydney, none West of Hornsby / Olympic Park, mostly around 2 - 6 mm. Terrey Hills picked up 18mm, Chatswood 7 and the City 3.2. The rain band is now on its last legs, working its way through the Hunter.

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#1474780 - 28/10/2018 09:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
We got none of that said rainfall down here, the air must've been too dry this far south.

It's pretty dry today in terms of humidity with 50% and a dew point of 6. If the wind drops tonight and skies stay clear it will be a fairly cool minimum for late October.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1474789 - 28/10/2018 14:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7003
Pretty surprised about the lack of sunshine today, it's a pretty miserable day with a full deck of StratoCu and cold southerly. You can guess where the cloud probably ends. It's 15 in Moss Vale but up to 20 at Goulburn and Nerriga so it's probably sunny in the latter two.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1474791 - 28/10/2018 15:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10140
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Bathurst is running about 1 degree above for max and almost 2 degrees above for min in October. Surprisingly rain will come in close to average at about 50mm vs 59 avge.

It's drying quickly again out here though.

My MIL is freezing and sick of showers at The Entrance - won't believe that the days are warmer here and much sunnier and drier in general.

Hard for me to post these days but will try and drop in from time to time. smile

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