Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Topic Options
#1474852 - 29/10/2018 10:40 Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like some relatively hot and sweaty weather coming this week ahead of a late week cold change.

This change looks to provide a bit of useful rain for many locations as it crosses (being thundery, hence hit/miss ....need to cross our fingers too).


Top
#1474853 - 29/10/2018 10:53 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Thanks for the thread Petros!

Been watching this closely because it's the first hint of excitement for the season for me. (Was overseas for the recent small outbreak).

WZ Stormcast has Thursday afternoon for West VIC (drifting to Central areas) with Friday the big day..

I hope it comes off this way. Fingers crossed.






Top
#1474861 - 29/10/2018 15:05 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2688
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yep, Stormcast has not downgrade is good thing.

Rain more likely with isolated cells an-otherwise not much rain.

Top
#1474882 - 29/10/2018 18:47 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, given this latest GFS run, wherever you are in Vic, crossed fingers might determine who gets a decent lick from the frontal storms?:


Top
#1475047 - 01/11/2018 21:44 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Whats everyones thoughts on tomorrow? It's promising, all the right ingredients are there for good storms but I feel for Central parts it may all happen a bit too early. I could (hope to be) wrong. Eastern VIC should do better.


Edited by balmz (01/11/2018 21:45)

Top
#1475075 - 02/11/2018 07:34 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2688
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Woke up-early this morning nice heavy rain, hate dry dusty heat.

Top
#1475087 - 02/11/2018 08:33 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: balmz]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1243
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: balmz
Whats everyones thoughts on tomorrow? It's promising, all the right ingredients are there for good storms but I feel for Central parts it may all happen a bit too early. I could (hope to be) wrong. Eastern VIC should do better.


I find that if BSCH has any risk for storms around Melbourne before 10am then it will struggle to get going. This shows that there is little cap. So I would say that the cold front would have to be specially strong to produce anything noteworthy (as in a large scale storm outbreak). We will still get gusty winds and some heavy rain. We really need some sunshine
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1475099 - 02/11/2018 09:36 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2688
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunderstorms firing up around Horsham in West are moving to SE direction more likely to Central and Melbourne next few hours.

Top
#1475102 - 02/11/2018 09:45 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: chasers addict]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Those storms around Horsham are the same ones that were quite big as they went South of Adelaide in the very early hours after Midnight.

Hopefully they get some clear air and Sun in front of them before getting to Melb.

Top
#1475114 - 02/11/2018 12:43 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Got 0.25mm from a late morning shower, lowered temp from 32C back to 27 atm.

Top
#1475116 - 02/11/2018 12:52 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2688
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had 6mm this morning and missed two storms in North and South.

There is Storms all way back to SA feels not end yet.

Top
#1475118 - 02/11/2018 13:41 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Suns out in the CBD, very warm and humid in the sunshine.

Hopefully we haven't missed our chance smile

Top
#1475119 - 02/11/2018 13:47 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Suns out, very strong NW'ly, heavy cloud to West and temp's jumped up to 32C. Sets this area up for severe weather on the change.

Top
#1475120 - 02/11/2018 13:53 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2688
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Clouds all gone to isolated cirrus and temperature rise 28c with NW wind.

Top
#1475123 - 02/11/2018 14:38 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1162
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Horrendously windy in Portland, large branch has come down on one off one of our trees.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1475125 - 02/11/2018 14:41 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Anyone sure where the change is right now? Looking at Obs it's somewhere in a diagonal line from about Apollo bay WNW all the way through say, Mt Gambier over the border.

Hard to say as it's not an easily defined Southerly sort of change over land yet, lots of Westerly's blowing hard in Western Vic and SA still.

Gives me hope we are still primed for some good storms. Some forming along that line South of Port Phillip bay right now.

I think that it's here, but not sure, happy to be corrected.



Edited by balmz (02/11/2018 14:41)

Top
#1475128 - 02/11/2018 15:05 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Ok Radar starting to blow up now.

Top
#1475129 - 02/11/2018 15:07 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 47
Loc: Wantirna South, VIC
Trough is over Melbourne and Cool Change is not far away. Nice Dry Slot with spotty cloud developing/developed behind the trough NW of Melbourne. My main concern is the seabreeze due around 4pm. Most models have a convergence line to form around Western Port and move through the West and South Gippsland region late this afternoon and with all ingredients priming for storms (except still some lack of moisture and maybe upper shear), unless something happens in the next hour I say Melbourne misses out and Gippsland wins the storms along the cool change (convergence line).
_________________________
Daniel Hayward

Top
#1475130 - 02/11/2018 15:19 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Daniel Hayward]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC

Yeah I think you are correct, the storms forming now look to be on that convergence line. Will likely sprinkle over Melb as it develops and then go boom out East. Usual Story. frown


Edited by balmz (02/11/2018 15:19)

Top
#1475131 - 02/11/2018 15:41 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 47
Loc: Wantirna South, VIC
Would have loved to be out in that Dry Slot between Churchill and Sale. That might explode once the cool change hits that region with the surface heating it is getting at the moment frown grin
_________________________
Daniel Hayward

Top
#1475137 - 02/11/2018 16:35 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
On another note this weather is kicking up some serious Pollen and dust and pushing it South into Melbourne. Lots of people struggling with coughing after being outside. (Me included) dangerous for asthma sufferers.

Top
#1475141 - 02/11/2018 16:58 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 47
Loc: Wantirna South, VIC
Lucky NO Severe Thunderstorms came from the NW VIC and hit the CBD or Greater Melbourne Area but for those in the North Central, North East and Gippsland in particular W&S Gippsland it could be a minor epidemic as long as there not to many big rain drops. Another reason why they upgraded all the state to a MODERATE Warning apart from the Mallee. On a Storm Note the ACCESS-C Has nailed the change on the head literally. The Seabreeze has also now hit Melbourne and Port Phillip on cue around 4pm-4:10pm and now looks like all storms will be NORTH of Melbourne and along the convergence line in Gippsland and will continue along the line till around after 8pm when storms will start to ease over the eastern ranges.


Edited by Daniel Hayward (02/11/2018 16:59)
_________________________
Daniel Hayward

Top
#1475153 - 02/11/2018 18:15 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 292
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Some interesting temps around Melbourne. Still around 30c here in Tarneit, south west of the CBD, the city is around 23c.
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1475155 - 02/11/2018 18:29 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Had three bursts of showers today, distant muffled thunder now and then, now cool with fresh WSW'ly wind. All tallied to 1.5mm rain with circa 12mm lost in strong warm winds frown

Baro still at 999 hPa, so hoping for another overnight shower as the front peters itself out.

Top
#1475190 - 02/11/2018 23:09 Re: Vic - thundery change after a couple of humid days 1-3 November 2018 [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1243
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I went for a play in gippsland today. I left at about 15:15. I almost made it to maffra. My target was Heyfield. It was a bit of a bust but I got to see lightning and hear some thunder which is more than they got in the CBD wink

I also managed to see some hail on the freeway at Drouin East. Car is good thank god...
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >


Who's Online
13 registered (Raindammit, Colin Maitland, mysteriousbrad, logansi, ashestoashes, Wezza, LonnyDave, liberator, scott12, ifishcq, Eigerwand, 2 invisible), 159 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Bob Johnston, Chowder100, J R Fascnated, Taught
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24025 Topics
1505872 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image