Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >
Topic Options
#1475222 - 03/11/2018 18:19 Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Despite us not wanting to moz this potential rain next week, this arvo's model runs still maintain decent totals across many Vic regions:



My area (N Gippsland) missed out on last Fridays change, so (like us all) hanging out from some decent rain next week.

To me looks good, great tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean (even though IOD is supposedly positive?), interacts with decent cold air from the bight, ....and relatively slow moving system this time???

Top
#1475280 - 04/11/2018 17:58 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
What a set up! - check out the water vapour accumulated over SA/NSW/VIC and S Qld atm:



....and check out the perfectly timed southern maritime cold front racing up from deep south (note the southerly tilted isobars) to interact with this mass of humid air over next 48 hrs or so:



Perfect set up for rain (or even more if a cut-off low forms as a result of the interaction) over SE Aus?

Top
#1475284 - 04/11/2018 18:56 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2688
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Clouds starting get trapped to thicken up in central Victoria as Cold Front will push hard kick humid air out to NE NSW.

Lucky we have humid rains and cold rains is good thing.

Top
#1475285 - 04/11/2018 19:12 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Looking OK at this stage, anything will be an improvement on-

SALE AP YEAR TO DATE
Average Rainfall To Nov 542.0mm 145.9 Day(s)
Total For 2018 251.2mm94 Day(s)

Top
#1475295 - 04/11/2018 21:52 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Fingers crossed this one actually produces the goods! Hoping for some bolts too smile

Top
#1475297 - 04/11/2018 23:29 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 47
Loc: Wantirna South, VIC
From my run of all available models it don't look that good unless your called the ACCESS-G! Who thinks 80mm+ is possible on Monday followed by another 23mm on Tuesday. But all other models are around the 5-25mm mark. This been said it might be possible some models have picked up some storm activity in their accumulated totals. But more then anything OVERALL this system looks fantastic but that will only eventuate if you get a few thunderstorms. It looks real ugly stripped back. If we get rain we all hope we see the results the ACCESS-G is showing at the moment. But i can't see it pulling off! So looks to be little rainfall. But a few thunderstorms on top of the 5-25mm and well then it will look really nice. THE QUESTION: Thunderstorms? Most likely ISOLATED throughout Monday, come Tuesday they will be more WIDESPREAD. So we most likely will see between 30-60mm including if you get a thunderstorm or two. If unlucky don't be surprised if you get as little as 5-25mm smile THIS IS FOR THE MELBOURNE METRO AREA. As the NORTH EAST looks to get the best falls over 60mm+ among most models.
_________________________
Daniel Hayward

Top
#1475314 - 05/11/2018 09:08 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
While a very nice low trough is funnelling it all down to Gippsland, looking its best tomorrow, ACCESS could see us with
maybe 5 or 6mm whereas GFS 10MM'ish and EC double that.

Had enough rain this morning to wet the pahs and roads, just a slight breeze and very overcast.

Little hard to imagine today clearing and max 28C.

Sat. pics show it clearing up a bit but still with showers, probably get steamy.

Top
#1475321 - 05/11/2018 10:57 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep 1mm here from a series of misty showers so far this morning. Very overcast and calm, might ruin any chance of an arvo storm.

Top
#1475322 - 05/11/2018 11:11 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1162
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
This mornings models have all downgraded this event, access now looking at 5-10 other than the blob over Melbourne’s north.

Going to be really annoyed if nothing happens in terms of high rainfall, it will be the 3rd event in the last month or which has had all the right conditions yet only delivers enough rain to wet everything till the next warm day.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1475324 - 05/11/2018 11:52 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2688
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
logansi , Yeah shocked clouds band in North did not bring something good, Now there is clear slot from West Victoria to SA/WA boarder is Front still long way out.

Top
#1475337 - 05/11/2018 18:22 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
See a storms developed after the back end of the moisture plume clearing from Otways just now.

0.75mm rain here this morning, after an overcast mild humid'ish day, can see it clearing from the West atm.

Nice BBQ evening here (if rain wasnt your prime motive).

GFS remains stingy for tomorrows rain, hopefully AccR is closer (only because it delivers circa 15mm for N Gippy, ....showing my greedy self interest).

Top
#1475339 - 05/11/2018 18:34 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1162
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Said storm nearly Colac from train near in Geelong was hoping for a bit more action during my trip out of the city but nothing forthcoming
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1475340 - 05/11/2018 18:35 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice view of it Logansi. Good to see something is possible to brew up this evening, at least in that region.

Top
#1475343 - 05/11/2018 19:22 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
It's a beautiful evening out there. Nice high bases on those Cu. Hopefully it comes alive overnight with some bolts smile View looking West/SW from Ferntree Gully.


Top
#1475350 - 05/11/2018 21:34 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lightning visible along the Strezleckiis atm.

Top
#1475354 - 06/11/2018 00:27 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 762
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Currently very misty and sticky outside. 91% humidity!! Feels like the atmosphere is primed to blow.

For comparison, Darwin AP is currently at 79% humidity.

Top
#1475358 - 06/11/2018 07:08 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 47
Loc: Wantirna South, VIC
Storms now firing up all over western VIC and should add some nice rains to parts of parched western VIC. Should see a few reach Melbourne over the next 3 hours or so before the action heads North. Looks though as the steady rainband misses to the North but before we all complain let's hope it goes to Western NSW and other places that need it most for the farmers sake. But would be nice to get a good rain event soon here in Melbourne. See what these storms bring shorty look nice for Heavy Rain and Damaging Winds smile Humidity at 95% felt like something had to come of it!!! smile
_________________________
Daniel Hayward

Top
#1475365 - 06/11/2018 08:23 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6382
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wow this page is off centre ha ha. Just on 5mm in about 10 mins at 630 this morning, Hope for a bit more from the next line
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1475368 - 06/11/2018 08:28 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Ripping rain over Yarrawonga/Rutherglen atm on radar,
in the trough coming down from the NW as forecast, now
if it can maintain its present trajectory we might do
alright @ Sale.

ACCESS (this morn.) has it fairly quick moving and pretty
much all over by midnight.

Talking to farmer from N of Maffra y'day, reckons it is one
of the worst droughts he'd experienced.



Edited by samboz (06/11/2018 08:29)

Top
#1475370 - 06/11/2018 08:30 Re: Vic - cold front to expected to provide good rain 5-7/11/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
If the poster puts in his own short line
"enters" to go to the next line more
accesible reading can be had grin

Top
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >


Who's Online
12 registered (logansi, Simmo FNQ, Mike Hauber, Willraja, TrentG, CuNimJim, GringosRain, Colin Maitland, Mcbobbings, Sandbank, Jimi, 1 invisible), 146 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Bob Johnston, Chowder100, J R Fascnated, Taught
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24025 Topics
1505878 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image