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#1472457 - 08/10/2018 22:07 2018-19 summer season cycones
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 545
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
TC outlook for coming summer issued by BoM today
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
Below average odds for all parts of Australia, but not that far below average that one would say no chance.
I actually find these near 50% (say 40% to 60% chance) of getting the average rather meaningless. Sort of like say half right / half wrong.
Anyway only time will tell. And as we have seen in the past what actually occurs with cyclones can be quite different to what climate "indicators" suggest. smile
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#1472461 - 08/10/2018 22:59 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 467
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Also on the note of cyclones in their video they have stated that they can predict the probability of cyclones occurring but they can never guess the intensity of the system that forms.

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#1473564 - 14/10/2018 18:48 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4790
Loc: Wynnum
ITCZ seems to be a fair way south compared to previous years at this time, also indicated by floods in Sumatra. Looking at charts it is roughly between 0 and 5N to our N and NW. 200Hpa charts also concur.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95)Nov16.8(109)YTD888.4(1037.4),

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#1473892 - 16/10/2018 21:17 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea should be interesting Can't be worse than last season? Maybe late December for the first NT for my guess.


Edited by Steve O (16/10/2018 21:22)

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#1475027 - 01/11/2018 15:20 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Numbers Declining in Australia.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-cyclones-numbers-declining-in-australia/528704

Ask any surfer over 50 and they will tell you that. I would say it was more like the 1980's went it started to go pear shaped.

There were a few good cyclone swells in the 1970's like Colin.

There was a time when you could rely on at least a couple of cyclone swells making it all the way to the NSW coast each year.

It is IMO not only less, but more that meander eastwards outside the NSW swell window and not setting up a fetch pointed to us.
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#1475110 - 02/11/2018 11:49 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
MT do you recall the 70's? I was reading about the 73-76 La Nina, and wondering how wet the Illawarra was (seeing as one can't access climate data for it).

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#1475203 - 03/11/2018 10:23 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14230
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Townsville will not see a cyclone anywhere near us this season. Go on mother nature prove me wrong. Any cyclone that passes south of us by 80 to 100klms we don't see a puff of wind nor any rain.
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#1475224 - 03/11/2018 18:30 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7472
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
You need to relocate back south to your old stomping ground SBT!

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#1475246 - 04/11/2018 08:00 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Fingers crossed for you SBT. Need more than luck though every season seems like abit of a lottery.

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#1475254 - 04/11/2018 09:02 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
MT do you recall the 70's? I was reading about the 73-76 La Nina, and wondering how wet the Illawarra was (seeing as one can't access climate data for it).


Only bits an pieces, but the shear bulk of events in that period.

I started work in Nowra in 1975, and it was either 1975 or very early 76 that the Shoalhaven turned on a real flood.

I remember walking along the bridge watching whole trees and one caravan floating down the river. It was actually scary as I had half thoughts that the bridge would not hold up, the current was that swift. Houses were flooded east of Nowra and Shoalhaven Heads was completely isolated for a couple of days.

When the Shoalhaven Heads road did reopen it and all the surrounding paddocks for miles around were coated in 3-6 ins of mud.

I moved to Moruya in 1976 and witnessed Cyclone Colin's seas. Never to this day have I seen surf larger, in fact I would go as far as saying the biggest waves I have seen since are not even 75% the height Colins waves were.

The sight from Moruya Beach was of waves breaking what looked like half way out to the horizon, but probably only 1 km out. Have since learnt that a reef extends out from Congo Point, hence why waves were breaking so far out. This reef is normally too deep for waves to break on. The waves were 40ft.
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#1475256 - 04/11/2018 09:12 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Flowin]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2689
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Holy damn.

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#1475675 - 10/11/2018 14:16 Re: 2018-19 summer season cycones [Re: Kino]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4151
Loc: El Arish
Early season Invest http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH952019

Anyone willing to invest some dollars into its development? grin
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