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#1474552 - 23/10/2018 22:03 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 545
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Seira
and grading to up to 100 mm [towards Brisbane]. Potential minor-to-moderate run-off may occur with heavier or prolonged rain periods.

Disclaimer: As Previous.

Yes SEQ got rains from less than 100mm, to isolated totals approaching 500mm. Much of it did not produce runoff and streamflow, but there were minor stream flows that added about 2% to SEQ water supply. All flows greatly appreciated😀
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1474596 - 24/10/2018 21:53 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Seira
and grading to up to 100 mm [towards Brisbane]. Potential minor-to-moderate run-off may occur with heavier or prolonged rain periods.

Disclaimer: As Previous.

Yes SEQ got rains from less than 100mm, to isolated totals approaching 500mm. Much of it did not produce runoff and streamflow, but there were minor stream flows that added about 2% to SEQ water supply. All flows greatly appreciated😀

Any run-off between now and the end of the month -- in the Adelaide Hills -- will also be greatly appreciated....the annual rainfall total (to date) is little more than 50-60% of average. Guess [though] could count ourselves fortunate in the sense some places across the country are even drier in comparison.


Edited by Seira (24/10/2018 21:55)

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#1474737 - 26/10/2018 21:47 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Seira
and grading to up to 100 mm [towards Brisbane]. Potential minor-to-moderate run-off may occur with heavier or prolonged rain periods.

Disclaimer: As Previous.

Yes SEQ got rains from less than 100mm, to isolated totals approaching 500mm. Much of it did not produce runoff and streamflow, but there were minor stream flows that added about 2% to SEQ water supply. All flows greatly appreciated😀

Any run-off between now and the end of the month -- in the Adelaide Hills -- will also be greatly appreciated....the annual rainfall total (to date) is little more than 50-60% of average. Guess [though] could count ourselves fortunate in the sense some places across the country are even drier in comparison.

If it's noticeable or prolonged streamflow one wants [for SEQ]... I don't know how much rain is required for that if 500 mm is not really enough.


Edited by Seira (26/10/2018 21:55)

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#1474766 - 27/10/2018 18:02 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Places west of about Hawker SA [and south of the border] look like they will receive some rain and/or shower periods over the coming 24-48 hours... precipitation of any reasonable amount would be a great outcome smile .


Edited by Seira (27/10/2018 18:03)

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#1474906 - 29/10/2018 22:03 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Places west of about Hawker SA [and south of the border] look like they will receive some rain and/or shower periods over the coming 24-48 hours... precipitation of any reasonable amount would be a great outcome smile .

Falls of ~ 5 to 25 mm from about Ceduna to Port Augusta SA in the 24 hours to 9 am, 28th. Totals of less than 5 mm towards Yunta, from the west. More contributions to soil moisture going by a lack of observations.

Synoptic and Observational Analysis
Potential Broader Regional Weather Pattern Change:


The feature which brought this rain between approximately Ceduna and Hawker SA appears to have been a westerly-belt surface-upper low offshoot, not of tropical origin. This feature disrupted the southern movement of tropical thickness contours, and prevented the Sub-Tropical Ridge in the Bight from moving north. The near opposite of what a tropical in-feed would do – it wasn’t one.

It seem apparent the disturbance to the thickness contours are forcing the surface ridge west of Perth WA skirting the WA coast to push up against the coast. Therefore, when the next upper-trough reaches SW-WA, or the Bight, it will be pushing against a re-establishing higher thickness, and tropical to sub-tropical easterlies. The following upper-trough may then interact with a higher-thickness [tropical-origin] low, which can drag the 576 dm line towards southern coasts. Early November.

Hopefully this brings wider-spread reasonable -- or more than reasonable -- falls, into next month smile .

Disclaimer: See Previous.


Edited by Seira (29/10/2018 22:13)

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#1475241 - 03/11/2018 23:03 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Per previous post smile -- maybe anywhere up to 20 mm or so across areas of SA in the coming 2-3 days...well hopefully anyway smile . See how much rain it takes for there to be some run-off (?) .


Edited by Seira (03/11/2018 23:04)

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#1475279 - 04/11/2018 17:49 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Per previous post smile -- maybe anywhere up to 20 mm or so across areas of SA in the coming 2-3 days...well hopefully anyway smile . See how much rain it takes for there to be some run-off (?) .

Dew-points may exceed 15 degrees, relative to temperatures in the mid-to-high teens.

The focus is on SA, however does not rule out heavy falls interstate.

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#1475808 - 14/11/2018 17:33 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Looking forward to some rain before the end of the month.

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#1476021 - 17/11/2018 18:34 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Looking forward to some rain before the end of the month.

500-1000 mb thickness looks likely to fall towards 540 dm (from ~ 576 dm) late Tuesday into Wednesday smile .

The mean sea-level barometric pressure to fall from the 1025-30 hPa range towards 1000 hPa, sustained for some time (days)...signifying the return of Winter-type pressure variability with latitudinal (north-south) changes, as opposed to zonal (west-east) drifting.


Edited by Seira (17/11/2018 18:41)

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#1476024 - 17/11/2018 18:47 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Seira
Looking forward to some rain before the end of the month.

500-1000 mb thickness looks likely to fall towards 540 dm (from ~ 576 dm) late Tuesday into Wednesday smile .

The mean sea-level barometric pressure to fall from the 1025-30 hPa range towards 1000 hPa, sustained for some time (days)...signifying the return of Winter-type pressure variability with latitudinal (north-south) changes, as opposed to zonal (west-east) drifting.

Disclaimer: Make of it what you will.

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#1476268 - Yesterday at 21:43 Re: Streamflow Observation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7616
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Seira
Looking forward to some rain before the end of the month.

500-1000 mb thickness looks likely to fall towards 540 dm (from ~ 576 dm) late Tuesday into Wednesday smile .

The mean sea-level barometric pressure to fall from the 1025-30 hPa range towards 1000 hPa, sustained for some time (days)...signifying the return of Winter-type pressure variability with latitudinal (north-south) changes, as opposed to zonal (west-east) drifting.

After 10.8 mm in the last 24 hours (a rolling tally) the colder, upper air of the SW system is approaching the Greater Adelaide Area. The Bureau forecast for tomorrow for the hills [6.17 pm ACDT] is very high chance of showers, heavy falls possible (rainfall 10 to 35 mm). Let's find out what happens smile . Possible small hail in the next 2 days as well in the region.

Windy [with polar air] tomorrow....maximum temperatures approximately 15-10, minimums: 5-10.

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